Archived Daily Updates

MarketBullets® Thursday, January 29, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     Box-o-Rox Status Change: Suspend Incremental Sales”. The Chicago wheat front-month (March delivery contract) has reached the 61% retracement level of the whole downward move from the November highs. This is a potential price for a “pause-to-reflect”. It has move up enough to change the relative cost of exported wheat, balancing off some of the advantage gained from weaker U.S. Dollar exchange rates.

     The U.S. Dollar Index value has dropped 1.92% for January 2026. It is not a “Collapse” as some news outlets are trumpeting. The Index has many periodic declines of the same or greater magnitude.

     Russian 2025/26 wheat exports were 45.7 million metric tonnes. Projected Russian wheat exports for 2026/27 are about 39.6 million tonnes.  Some of the lower figures are due to reduced acreage planted out of small margins. Some is from adverse weather conditions for wheat production in southern Russian regions.

     The two factors behind most of the recent rally in wheat prices are winterkill talk and a weaker U.S. Dollar. Both of these are limited in scope and are unlikely to support extended price increases. The charts show that wheat has reached a key retracement level that will be a measuring point for many traders. The end of this week is likely to show whether there is enough buying energy in the wheat complex to continue. At least there is price acknowledgment of the lows, expanding the recent range of prices into the next phase of price movement. Spring, about 6-7 weeks ahead, always brings price sensitivity to weather which suggests greater risk premium to be built in, creating opportunistic marketers with some chances to capture a few dimes.

     Wheat futures speculative forum groups are skeptical about continued rally but expect longer-term wheat prices to be at least $2-$3 higher than today. Time frame maybe 2 years. Most comments show that we are in a short-term wheat price bubble. It may not be much, but an extra 10-20 cents/bushel can add up nicely. Trailing stops are imperfect, but effective.

     Every long-term rally begins with a short-term rally. The pattern may be slow to develop, but we have the first element in hand. It’s important to be able to withstand a test of previous lows without getting discouraged, and making incremental sales according to benchmark-style indicators like Box-o-Rox can reduce exposure while still holding onto some upside potential.

Use weekly or even monthly charts to reduce blood pressure and short-term anxiety about the markets. Real trends (as opposed to noise) show up in longer-term charts, so watch for pattern changes outside of established ranges.

     Stay tuned.

-Gary

MarketBullets® Wednesday, January 28, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     Paris 11% milling wheat futures were down harder than the U.S. markets in the last week, minus the equivalent of -$.12 per bushel versus KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) down only $.02. This may reflect the influence of expanded quotas being applied to Russian wheat exports, along with fair/good winter wheat crop condition in the E.U.

     The wheat price has raised the bottom side of the ongoing sideways range about 10 cents during the last 15 weeks. The threats of winterkill may not have the power to trigger a big runup, but they will remain in the market’s mind, as there is no way to determine any measurable crop damage for now. This amounts to a reinforcement of the low side of the very-long-and-boring sideways price track.  

     There is a pattern forming in Chicago March contracts of slightly higher lows. We are now in the process of looking for a confirmation of a 1-2-3 reversal, an old-school approach to identifying a change in trend. It will require at least one trip to the recent highs printed in November about 35 cents above today’s trading level. Sometime probably at least 6-8 weeks from the first week of January (if the movement is in proportion to the last years’ worth of price behavior). The value of looking for this kind of pattern is to establish some expectations that allow decisions to be made. A Failure of the upward movement would be defined as a break of the lows of the first week of January at $5.01 in the Chicago March delivery contract (that will expire at the end of February). In the May contract that support line is more like $5.13 (a reflection of the carrying charge from March to May of about 9-10 cents).  

     Support lines like this are merely price levels that revealed buying interest in the past. The lines created are just measuring points. Every time a certain level is confirmed it becomes a little more valuable as a trading benchmark. If an often-tested level fails, it is meaningful as a change in behavior that must be acknowledged and used as a blaze on a market tree showing that someone passed through here before and marked the path.

     The NWS 6-10-Day NOAA Temperature map says the western US wheat belt and PNW will see warmer than normal and the Precip map says dryer than normal. Most of the eastern half of the continental U.S. is expected to be close to “normal” for the period. It’s still winter…

     The best positive influence on short-term U.S. wheat export prices remains a weaker Dollar Index and stronger Australian Dollar. The market has shown that higher prices will not come easy, with lots of sniffing and jumping back like a cat checking out a baseball mitt in the middle of the floor. If that mitt were to twitch even a little bit (due to the string attached and held by yours truly), the kitty will jump straight up 3 feet, do a back twist-flip, disappear into the next room and then sneak back in to see if it’s still there. That’s our market.

     Onward, upward? Stay tuned.

MarketBullets® Tuesday, January 27, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     The signature of an uptrend is a series of higher lows followed by higher highs. Such a pattern is present in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures in the March delivery contract. It also appears in Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) and in Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) but to a lesser extent. There is yet to be any change in status in the Box-o-Rox (BoR) indicator, still at “Execute Incremental Sales on Schedule”.

     U.S. wheat Export Inspections reports shows YTD exports at 66.7% of the USDA projected total for the marketing year ending on May 31, with 66% of the marketing year passed. Last year at this point the inspections were at about 61% of the projected total. For the marketing year-to-date, wheat vessel loadings now total about 600 million bushels, 18% ahead of last year’s pace. The current pace of shipments (our favorite positive market factor) is at its highest level in nine years.

     Some of the market strength of late has come from winterkill risk. Russia’s Volga and Central Districts (Think Montana and Kansas) hit -13°F to -22°F along with Rostov District (more like South Dakota and Oklahoma) in the single digits, with only light snow cover. Since they went into dormancy dry, there is likely to be some shrinkage, at least the market seems to be adding some premium against it.

     U.S. winter wheat states are also cold with -10°F in the Texas Panhandle area.

The weather gets cold in the winter? Wheat is hard to kill, and there have been many years that the market has attempted to estimate winterkill losses, only to have to subtract the premium later. Unfortunately, there is no way to measure the impact of freezing wind on exposed root crowns until we reach emergence, still at least 6 weeks away.

     The charts suggest a bit more strength than they have had for many weeks. Anticipation of early spring crop disappointments in Russia as a market factor were incorrect last year, although there were some areas that did suffer from excessive drought. It takes a pretty massive weather event to make a market-moving factor.     

     The problem with making marketing decisions in a period with well-established price ranges is that it is a test every time the price reaches the upper boundary. If the price exceeds that line with conviction it is likely to trigger more buying interest and sling-shot up a new range one level above where we have been. If the price fails to hold a positive note, the more aggressive sellers, usually the managed money crew will assert their prerogative and sell hard, pressing the market. For the moment, it is pleasant to see the green numbers on the screen. The long-term wheat charts are not showing much, yet. It is the season for surprises now.     

If you feel obligated to worry about things that you have no control over here is your short list (you’re welcome).  The Fed meets this week (rates expected unchanged), but all eyes are on Fed Chair Powell's comments amid White House pressure to cut rates. Stocks are wobbling. Gold is moonwalking. Crude is confused. Soybeans are celebrating. Corn is sulking. And wheat just woke up from a nap because someone threw ice water on its face.

Stay tuned. The show's just getting interesting.

-Gabriel

MarketBullets® Monday, January 26, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     The Australian Dollar continues to strengthen versus the direct relationship with the U.S. Dollar, as the U.S. Dollar Index (representing a “basket” of various currencies, of which the Euro Dollar is 57% or so, the Japanese Yen is about 13%, the Canadian Dollar is 9% with other European-based country currencies are the balance. The Pacific Rim countries are the bulk of exporting destinations for PNW Soft White Wheat (SWW) and are the most affected by the Aussie/Greenback differential. In this case, the PNW gains a mild advantage in export competitiveness.

     Diesel on Monday AM traded up to its highest since November 24, 2025, kissing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line in the process. There is no magic in that line, but it does suggest that the upward move since the January 7th low is reaching “maturity”. There is no sell signal (or even a “wait and see” idea) for those who would like to fill their diesel tanks, but it seems reasonable to watch closely for the next few sessions to see if the upward momentum will shift.

     The Chicago wheat price in the last few sessions has gained 20 cents. As of early trading Monday morning the March contract is trading very near the Box-o-Rox (BoR) indicator line; too near to call the change to “Suspend incremental sales” status. It will take a confirmation of this “crossing of the line”. We assembled the BoR to actually draw a line in the sand. Without that line, there is no trigger to make a decision.

     Most people find making a wheat selling decision difficult, usually waiting until there is no choice, paying a bill, etc. The “Fear of Being Wrong”, (selling too soon) looms large. The reality is that it is not “wrong” to sell wheat when it makes sense, no matter what may come. If the trend is upward, then patience is valuable. If the trend is lower, then making the move without hesitation is rational and cannot be “Wrong”. There is no other way to perceive the decision. Only over time will any rational program of sales prove itself, and no-one is always “right”, but the rational program is the only way to improve performance. Saying “I will wait and see” is not an honest response to a call for a decision. It is better to say, “I will make no sale of wheat today.”  The trend is lower on the long-term  weekly chart, but it is nearing the upper end of the ongoing high-low range, always an important review point.

     Right now, we are on the cusp of a change to an upward trend bias. The next few sessions will form the basis for an actual decision for New Crop wheat (hopefully all of your Old-Crop wheat is either sold or price protected – IF not, call your merchant and review alternatives.

     Gold has printed a new all-time high above $5,100 per Troy ounce. This has to be a banking phenomenon. It defies common sense to declare that jewelry sales in China and India have driven gold up 215% since October of 2022. If that is so, then there is a destination somewhere down the proverbial road for a conclusion of why the yellow metal has reached such heights. It is easy to suspect collusion among those who either fear or resent the power of the U.S. Dollar in the world, although there is no horn blowing that this underlies the big move up. It does bear watching, even if we don’t need any new gold teeth soon.

     Stand by for more.

-Gary

MarketBullets® Friday, January 23, 2026: Close

     Australian Dollar hitting new 15-month highs, driven by strong employment data boosting prospects for more Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hikes, booming commodity prices (especially gold), and a weakening US dollar. Markets are betting on tighter policy in Australia while anticipating rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

     If one is hunting for an inflation hedge, does one buy gold at new all-time highs near $5,000/ounce, or maybe wheat (a fungible, globally useful commodity) near multi-year lows?

     Friday’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) report Friday showed Large Speculative Traders “The Funds” still holding historically large short-sold futures positions in Chicago SRW wheat. The positions reported each Friday (Jan 23) are as of the previous Tuesday (Jan 20), so the latest figures don’t reflect the rally that started Friday morning. Volume of trade on Friday in Chicago wheat was heavy.

     Wheat Export Sales showed net sales of 618,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026, up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. “Unknown” was the top destination, with 21% of the total for the week. Mexico, often our best wheat customer, took about 19%.

     The Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) March contract ran right up and gave the Box-o-Rox indicator line a big sloppy kiss, but that was all for the date. We will have to wait for confirmation Monday. The status remains “Execute Incremental Sales”, but with the energetic run on Friday there are few rushing to sell cash wheat. Chicago traded at the highest price since December 12, 2025, but remains 40 cents below the true challenge high of $5.68. Plenty of room for a run.

     Stay tuned, as this one may have some legs. The market tone is healthier than it has been, and the spring “silly season” is looming only 8 weeks away. Its called a “Futures” market for a reason. Old news and well-chewed data is not the preferred diet.

PS     Gold still printing new highs. The U.S. Dollar Index is hitting new lows back to the first week of October, with virgorous confirmation in the Australian Dollar. Diesel is in a 12-session uptrend, but remains in its broad, long-term lower channel.

MarketBullets® Friday, January 23, 2026: Pre-Dawn

Friday pre-dawn wheat trade is showing all the enthusiasm of a teenager asked to clean the garage—modest consolidation with Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) March futures limping around $5.16, Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) near $5.24, and Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) clinging to $5.63 like it's the last life raft on the Titanic. Markets are still digesting last week's WASDE gut-punch while side-eyeing the Davos drama where billionaires in parkas pretend to solve the world's problems between mimosas on the ski lift.

  Monday's Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday gave us a blessed pause button after the previous week's muddy trek through our narrow price channel. If you blinked, you missed the carnage—but your checking account balance probably didn't. The January 12th WASDE report dropped like an anvil on a wiley desert predator, and corn farmers are still picking up their teeth. This week's action has wheat attempting to find its dignity after getting dragged down by corn's spectacular faceplant.

  Having only returned to their offices, our underappreciated USDA workers released the best facsimile of a fully fleshed out report with the resources they had at their disposal, and to the shock of absolutely everyone except the guy who leaked it to his brother-in-law (kidding...obviously most USDA data jockeys are either single or divorced and those that actually have a brother-in-law probably wouldn’t piss in his ear if his head was on fire.) Corn production? Try 17.02 billion bushels—up from December's already bloated 16.75 billion. Nobody (and I mean NOBODY educated and experienced in publishing professional legitimate pre-report guestimates) —saw that coming. Trade guesses were looking for yield to DROP by 2 bushels per acre. Instead, USDA said "How about we GO UP a half bushel to 186.5 bpa?"

Ending stocks surged 198 million bushels to 2.227 billion—that's 44% higher than last year and roughly equivalent to enough corn to fill every grain bin from here to Neptune. Twice.* (*These values are calculated from educated, experienced, professional and legitimate guestimates)

Soybeans weren't spared either, with ending stocks climbing 60 million bushels to 350 million despite everyone hoping for something tighter. The market's reaction was about what you'd expect when someone tells you your house just appraised for half what you paid.

For wheat? USDA essentially said, "You're already pitiful enough—we'll leave you alone.  We can catch up with you in March" No changes: ending stocks at 926 million bushels (highest since 2019/20), farm price at $4.90/bushel, exports at 900 million bushels. Our fundamental story remains: the world has never had more harvested and planted wheat than current levels.

  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flew to the Swiss Alps this week to have "constructive discussions" with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. They smiled for cameras, confirmed China bought the 12 million tonnes of soybeans they already bought, and talked about maybe buying 25 million tonnes next year. Nervous marketers took this as gospel and soybeans found a second wind.

The real excitement came from biodiesel policy whispers. The EPA is expected to finalize blending mandates by March, with numbers suggesting 5.2-5.6 billion gallons for 2026—up from 3.35 billion in 2025. Soybean oil absolutely loved this news, which pulled soybeans along for the ride like a golden retriever on a leash.

President Trump gave his Wednesday Davos speech, spent considerable time discussing aspirations of US attachment with Greenland like an extra confident sophomore talking about scoring with a hot, high maintenance senior. He revealed some new rhetorical tariff parameters, de-emphasized some of the less realistic and heretofore ineffective tariffs, and generally kept everyone on their toes. Markets yawned, shrugged, and went back to watching corn collapse.

  Wheat remains the agricultural equivalent of the middle child at Thanksgiving dinner—present, accounted for, but nobody's asking about its day. Chicago March futures are parked about 25-30 cents above November's multi-year lows around $4.92, but they're showing about as much upward momentum as a lead balloon.

The Box-o-Rox indicator continues flashing "Execute Incremental Sales on Schedule" in bright neon letters. No buy signal. Not even close. The charts are yelling "SELL INTO RALLIES" so loud that dogs in the neighboring county are responding to the call.

Export sales from the January 15th report (week ending January 8th) came in at 156,300 metric tonnes—up 32% from the prior week but down 21% from the four-week average. Here's the thing: we're actually running 16% ahead of last year's pace and sitting at 83% of USDA's 900 million bushel target. That's legitimately good news. But in a market drowning in supply, "good" just means "less terrible."

THE WORLD IS DROWNING IN WHEAT (PART 847):

Argentina's sitting on a record 27 million tonne harvest that's 93% complete, with FOB wheat prices at $206-209/MT undercutting everyone like a Black Friday doorbuster. Russia's grinding out 87 million tonnes (up 7% year-over-year), and in spite of a strengthening ruble they continue selling it cheaper than gas station sushi. India planted 82.5 million acres of wheat and might—MIGHT—lift their four-year export ban, which would be like adding another firehose to the swimming pool we're already drowning in.

Global 2025/26 production: 842 million tonnes. Global consumption: 824 million tonnes. Global ending stocks: four-year high. Any questions?  Great, us too.  Give us a call so we can compare notes.

  While we're over here watching wheat prices with the enthusiasm of watching paint dry, gold is out there setting all-time records like it's training for the Olympics. Trading above $4,950/oz Thursday morning, up 10% in a month, up 79% year-over-year. J.P. Morgan's calling for $5,055/oz by year-end 2026 and $5,400/oz by late 2027. Why? Take your pick: Trump wants Greenland (seriously), NATO's having an identity crisis, central banks are hoarding the stuff like doomsday preppers, and the Fed's probably cutting rates later this year. Gold's basically the teacher's pet right now while wheat's sitting in the corner.

Crude oil's hanging around $60/bbl. Diesel's at $3.50/gallon—down 7% from last year, which is actually good news in the peripheral market mess.

The Baltic Dry Index had a rough January, dropping to 1,532 on the 15th (six-month low) before bouncing to 1,761 on the 22nd. Still up 114% year-over-year, but nobody's throwing a party about it.

  Soybeans went on a Thursday joy ride, jumping toward $10.70/bushel on biodiesel policy dreams and Chinese buying resumption. March futures added 10-12 cents, bean oil surged, and suddenly everyone remembers soybeans exist.

Corn? Still licking its wounds from last week's 24-cent beatdown. March futures around $4.22/bushel, fundamentally reset lower by that 17.02 billion bushel production bomb. Ethanol's setting records (1.196 million barrels per day).

  If these are the “Market Bullets”, here is the black powder: Wheat producers are navigating Thursday with prices that are "less awful" but still stuck in the quicksand of global oversupply. Specs are sitting on about 94,600 contracts net short in CBOT wheat (mid-January data), so there's room for a short-covering bounce if someone sneezes and sounds bullish. But sustainable rallies need either Mother Nature to throw a tantrum or demand to wake up from its coma—neither of which are detectable on the radarscope. Winter wheat's sleeping under minimal snow cover across Kansas and Oklahoma. Some folks are worried about freeze damage if arctic air arrives without a blanket, but so far it's not enough to move the needle. NOAA says cool and wet for January 23-29, which is fine.

Keep executing incremental sales. Look at option strategies  if you've got unsold bushels giving you heartburn.  Get more familiar with your spreads. And remember: chart analysis will usually tell you what's coming before the fundamentals admit it.  The markets influence the headlines not the otherway around.  We will stay on this track while you stay on the tractor.  Together we’ll see our way through this mopey market.

 Next WASDE: Monday, February 10th. Buckle up.

--Gabriel

MarketBullets® Thursday, January 22, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     The U.S. winter wheat belt is dryer than producers like to see. Temperatures have been very cold. Wheat movement has been and will continue slow until there is price movement, either a down-scare or a strong upward shot. This puts the commercials as seen in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report due out Friday afternoon in a buying attitude.

Aussie Dollar continues higher, now trading at levels last seen in October 2024, a mild supportive factor for PNW-origin wheat exports.

     Deere and Co common stock took a hit last August-October when the company predicted that "2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle" and offered a weak outlook, with sales expected to be down as much as 30%. Since the lows of October, DE has regained the upward momentum that began in march of 2020 from $106.00 per share and is now, at $529.00 per share, approaching a new high above last year’s $533.70. The market is saying that the ag economy is printing lows now. It may be a suggestion of a slow rise in 2026 for the grains.

     Remember when Russia was the world's wheat kingpin? Record crops, aggressive pricing, state-backed exporters muscle-flexing their way into Egypt and Turkey while U.S. HRW sat on the sidelines watching market share evaporate? 

     That was yesterday's story. Today's story is written in ice. 

A brutal January cold snap sent temperatures plummeting to -15°C in Russia's southern breadbasket—regions like Rostov that carry the nation's wheat hopes on their shoulders. But here's the kicker: this freeze didn't hit a healthy crop. It hammered vulnerable winter wheat that went into dormancy already stressed from autumn drought, with inadequate snow cover to insulate against the deep freeze. 

     The meteorological one-two punch: An unseasonably warm December prevented proper hardening, then rapid temperature shifts created "ice crusting"—a phenomenon where moisture freezes into a solid sheet that literally suffocates plants underneath. 

You can't make this stuff up. Mother Nature apparently read the Russian export dominance headlines and ordered a round of Stoli doubles on ice for wheat traders. 

     This wasn't some out-of-the-blue disaster. Russia's 2025/26 crop was already limping before January delivered the knockout punch.  The first jab came  when Rostov Oblast—accounting for over 10% of Russia's grain production—declared a state of emergency in May 2025 due to severe spring frosts and drought.  this was followed a quarter later by reports reflecting Russian grain exports plunging to their lowest level since 2008.  This all happened in context to a significant drought in a significant region in Feb 2025 when snow depth in Central and Volga regions hit the lowest levels in 26 years. 

     You don’t need to know Pepe Silvia or what his role in all of this might be to extrapolate what happens when a significant region’s soil moisture ranks at 26-year lows and the State is declaring agricultural emergencies in May, then farmers plant the NEXT crop into persistent autumn dryness, then you get a warm December followed by a January deep freeze... 

     Well, the 2026/27 Russian wheat crop isn't starting from a position of strength. S&P Global is projecting Russian wheat output down for the 2026-27 marketing year, and the real question isn't WHETHER production declines—it's HOW MUCH. 

Before we talk about where we're going, let's remember where we've BEEN—because the U.S. winter wheat industry carries scar tissue from a disaster that's still reshaping global trade dynamics. 

Based on USDA data, the 2023 winter wheat crop had the worst abandonment rate since World War I, with 32.6% of acreage abandoned. This surpassed even the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s and the extreme drought of the 1950s. 

     The 2023 U.S. crop also entered dormancy in the worst condition ever recorded, with only 34% rated good to excellent, based on USDA ratings that began in 1986. By spring, winter wheat was rated just 27% good to excellent as of April 9, 2023, tied with 1996 for the lowest rating in 40 years. 

The damage was particularly severe in the Southern Plains: 

·         Texas had 70% abandonment and Oklahoma had 53% 

·         Kansas saw significant abandonment as well, with USDA's official estimate at 19% though field reports suggested actual abandonment could reach 27% 

This disaster resulted from a multi-year drought in the Plains region combined with poor soil moisture conditions during planting in fall 2022. While winterkill specifically (freeze damage) has been a concern in other years like 2015 and 2021, the 2023 crop stands out for having the most extreme overall crop failure in over a century due to the combination of drought and poor conditions. 

     While America's wheat belt was burning in 2023, Russia harvested record crops and captured market share that U.S. exporters are STILL fighting to reclaim. 

     Now let's talk about what's happening in our own backyard today, because the U.S. winter wheat crop isn't exactly sitting pretty either. 

The vulnerability profile looks familiar to anyone who's lived through a winterkill event: 

HIGH-RISK SCENARIOS: 

·         Fields with lush top growth that sucked soil moisture dry before dormancy 

·         Late-emerged wheat with shallow root systems 

·         Areas with less than 2-3 inches of snow cover (and we're looking at YOU, southwest Kansas and the Panhandle) 

Topsoil moisture at planting showed a stark divide: most hard red winter states had significantly better moisture than 2024, while soft wheat states experienced mixed to drier conditions. Translation: some regions went into winter fat and happy, others went in on empty. 

As of early January 2026, wheat is fully dormant under mixed soil moisture conditions across Kansas. "Mixed" is the agricultural equivalent of "it's complicated"—some fields will wake up in April ready to rock, others won't wake up at all. 

     The difference between 2023 and 2026? In 2023, drought killed the crop slowly through the fall and winter. In 2026, the vulnerability is FREEZE damage—a fast, brutal killer if conditions align wrong. 

     Here's where it gets interesting for traders. The market saw a sharp 4% rally in early January as traders reacted to the Russian frost, only to be partially tempered by a bearish USDA report on January 12 that raised global stock estimates. Classic tug-of-war: weather risk premium versus bearish fundamentals. 

     But the REAL market moment comes in March-April when both Russia and the U.S. emerge from dormancy. If ice crusting and deep freezes translate into widespread acreage abandonment, we could see a massive supply shock by mid-year. 

     Historical precedent matters here. Periods of significant winterkill in the Black Sea (such as 2010 and 2012) led to multi-year rallies in global grain prices. 

The 2026 version of that playbook: 

·         Russia enters spring with damaged, stressed wheat 

·         U.S. Plains carry pockets of high winterkill risk 

·         Global stocks already tighter than they look (remember, ending stocks in major exporters are down significantly from 2017 levels) 

·         One more weather hiccup—late spring freeze, flash drought, hail in June—and suddenly the "ample supply" narrative flips 

     Short-term? Volatility is your friend. Every thaw report, every spring condition update, every Russian Ministry of Ag comment about "assessing damage" will move prices. 

     Medium-term? The Russian government significantly increased its grain export quota for February-June 2026 to 20 million metric tons—nearly double the previous year—attempting to clear out the massive 2025 surplus in “storage”. Maybe they need cash? 

     Longer-term? If Russia's wheat dominance stumbles—and the January freeze suggests it might—we're looking at a fundamentally different global wheat trade in 2026/27. U.S. HRW exports already rebounded 57% year-over-year in 2024/25, though they haven't yet fully recovered to pre-drought and pre-Black Sea conflict levels. A wounded Russian crop in 2026/27 could be America's window to recapture market share we lost during the 2023 disaster. 

     Just as the 2023 U.S. disaster handed Russia the global market on a silver platter, a 2026 Russian disaster could hand it back.  The "Frozen Harvest" narrative is still being written. We won't know the final chapter until spring emergence reveals the winterkill damage in both Russia and the U.S. Plains. But here's what we DO know: 

✓ Russia's crop went into winter already stressed 
✓ January delivered a vicious freeze with inadequate snow protection 
✓ Ice crusting is a real, crop-killing phenomenon 
✓ The U.S. crop carries its own vulnerabilities in pockets 
✓ Global wheat stocks aren't as comfortable as headline numbers suggest 
Historical winterkill events can and do create multi-year price impacts 
The “smart” money isn't betting on disaster—it’s leaning the wrong way for a disaster. The funds are short-sold. 

     When spring arrives and the snow melts, we'll either see green fields emerging across the steppes and the Plains... or we'll see brown patches of dead wheat where market expectations used to be. 

     The above is speculation, but it represents a plausible scenario. Does it mean we should not sell wheat via our regular incremental sales program? Not so much. But even if we will have sold 25% of the new crop by the time emergence happens, that means we are still carrying 75%. That’s how it works.

     At least it’s likely to get more interesting as the calendar rolls into spring.

     Stay tuned. Keep a keen eye and a cool hand.  

-Gabriel

MarketBullets® Tuesday, January 20, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     Dollar Index IS tweaking backwards, trading at +0.29% month-to-date, from the high point of +1.15% last week, which was the highest the Index has been since the first week of December, A mild  A related price is the 2-year Treasury Note, with interest rates climbing up in the same time frame. Apparently the world is perceiving rising financial risk in the U.S. Dollar. Its way too early in the chart move to declare a real shift, but there does seem to be some selling energy. This bears watching (better market information than the talking heads).

     Gold has printed a new all-time high in the early going for this week, now about 41% up from mid-August 2025, now at $4,738 per Troy ounce (nearing what the “gold-bugs” told us to expect a short time back. The movement of the gold price is reflecting a different global financial/economic environment than we have been used to. The market is saying “Buckle-up Buttercup!” Somehow intuition is whispering that the wheat complex ought to be participating in that “inflation-driven” gold price. We will be watching this element and its relationships to other markets.

     The wheat chart for Chicago, our faithful bellwether, is bouncing like a lost ping-pong ball, sideways in a narrow 25-cent range. The Tuesday morning trade shows Chicago and KC wheat down 2-3 cents, Minneapolis is the only wheat market showing green numbers, up just ¼-cent, while Paris is suggesting negative 4-5 cent equivalent. The global trade is distracted by the steady acceleration of the global, multi-level chess game being played out between the dominant nations around Taiwan, Ukraine, Venezuela and now Greenland. Instead of listening to the spin-doctors on the media, we prefer watching the sensitive markets that are affected by the econo-political moves as they roll out. At least it’s entertaining, sort of.

     Box-o-Rox (BoR) says “Execute incremental sales on schedule” and the official BoR tracker has already sold 1/12th part of the year’s wheat. There is no buy signal for wheat at present.  

     The character of the global trade arena has big potential for price movements, but no decent indications of when. The best answer is, as Terry would say. “Hide and Watch”.

     Stay tuned.

MarketBullets® Wednesday, January 21, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     The trade groks southern harvest pressure and ample supplies continuing to dominate headlines. The market's gaze is drifting toward the 2026/27 crop year—still months away.

     We're still swimming in wheat right now. The global wheat stocks-to-use ratio has recent forecasts for the end of the 2025/26 season suggesting 32-33%. The historical average for the Global Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio ranges around 25% to 30%.

     The (2000–2023) U.S. Stocks ratio average is about 35%, with the projected SU ratio at around 45% for the current marketing year ending May 31st.

   The fundamental question shifting through the trading desks isn't 'How much do we have?' It's becoming 'How much will we grow?”, a much more comfortable target for analysis than demand ever is.

     Across the Black Sea region, winter wheat sits vulnerable. Soil moisture levels in Rostov and Krasnodar—Russia's two largest grain-producing regions within the Southern Federal District—remain very low as of mid-January, following autumn 2025 precipitation that registered between 40-60% of the long-term average.

     The Central and Volga districts saw 20%-40% short autumn rainfall, and Roshydromet (Russia's state weather agency) warns of more of the same conditions. Following a warm December, early January temperatures in Russian wheat country dropped to -15°C (5° F) in Rostov.

The Russian 20-year average for poor condition at this stage is 7.3%. The current crop is entering the new season with the worst pre-dormancy rating in two decades.

     CBOT wheat futures rallied 4% in early January on the Russian freeze news and were then obscured by USDA's bearish January 12 WASDE showing record global ending stocks.

The USDA has the Russian old-crop at 89.5 million metric tonnes due to exceptional Siberian and Urals yields versus southern region losses, which surprised the trade last spring. New (private) Russian crop estimates are running at about 84 million metric tonnes.

     The U.S. Hard Red Winter belt also entered dormancy under clouds of uncertainty (nothing unfamiliar here).  

          A stronger Ruble is making exports unprofitable for Mr. Putin. The Russian Grain Union says exports need the Ruble above 90 Rubles/$ to be “viable”. The current rate is about 77.5 Rubles/$.

    Anticipated winterkill has never been a good factor on which to trade wheat. We can’t know winterkill until March-April green-up. Ice crusting damage won't reveal itself until thaw. Acreage abandonment decisions haven't been made. It’s a big maybe, but this “Maybe” represents the only significant coffee-talk point for the trade for now.

     Russia is front-loading export sales with larger quotas, maybe to clear out wheat in an inefficient shipping system ahead of a coming, still-large crop, certainly to maintain loyalty among favorite shipping destinations, or to continue to keep a low lid on international wheat prices to punish the sanction regime. Whatever their rationale, wheat is available for sale.

     There are reasons to look for wheat production shrinkage among global shippers, especially due to low prices and high costs. Those producers who are able are looking closely at alternate crops or smaller area for wheat.

     It is less than 6 weeks before U.S. wheat crops in the southern tier of states begin to emerge from dormancy and green-up, which will kick-start the old crop condition reporting engine into life. The game is about to accelerate.

     Wednesday morning wheat trade in Chicago was plus 2-3 cents. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) was also up about 2 cents, alongside Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) the same. Paris indications were for plus 2 cents equivalent. With some support from corn and beans, there are small green numbers flashing. The trend for the wheat complex is still flat, but there is a sense of market interest.

     The global financial markets are bubbling and boiling, with The Donald keeping them all off-balance, including the EU. It’s this trademark style which makes him unpredictable and frustrating for his opponents, domestic and foreign. Meanwhile wheat buyers have to continue to buy, wheat sellers have to continue to sell and the prices are revealed by the market itself and not the politicians, so the trade rolls on.

     Stay with us. There is more coming.

PS - Gold at new all-time highs on Wednesday morning.

MarkMarketBullets® Friday, January 16, 2026: Close….The Three Day Weekend Edition

     The week ending Friday, January 16th closed with modest recovery in wheat futures, but the broader narrative remains unchanged: global wheat abundance continues to strangle price momentum like kudzu on a fence post. Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) March contract finished the week at $5.17¾, up 7½ cents Friday but still trapped 25 cents above November's multi-year lows. Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) showed relative strength at $5.27¼ (+10¢ Friday), while Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) held steady near $5.67. Paris milling wheat slipped modestly on the week.

     Monday's WASDE report set the tone for the entire week—and it wasn't pretty. U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised to 926 million bushels, up 8% year-over-year and 39 million bushels above trade expectations. Global wheat stocks climbed to a 4-year high. Corn delivered the knockout punch with record production of 15.14 billion bushels on a 183.6 bushels per acre yield—about 0.5 bpa above trade guesses but still a record that pressured the entire grain complex. That corn overhang bled into wheat, dragging Chicago down 5 cents and KC down 3½ cents by Monday's close despite an early 8¾-cent rally that vanished like a politician's promise after election day.

     Thursday's export sales report arrived with all the fanfare of a tax audit notice: 156,300 metric tonnes (5.74 million bushels) for the week ending January 8th, down 21% from the prior 4-week average and well south of what's needed to maintain momentum. Year-to-date cumulative shipments remain about 20% ahead of last year's pace at roughly 62% of USDA's current projection, but the weekly pace has gone dead in the water.

     The Black Sea remains the wild card nobody can quite price. On January 9th, Russian drone strikes hit two foreign-flagged vessels near Odesa and Chornomorsk, killing one Syrian crew member and injuring others. One ship was inbound to load grain. Despite the attacks, Ukraine's maritime corridor has moved over 98 million tonnes of grain since inception—a testament to Ukrainian determination and western insurance underwriters with nerves of steel. Russia continues to pound Odesa's port infrastructure with regularity, yet grain keeps flowing through alternative routes including Danube transshipments and EU "solidarity lanes."

     The irony? Russia's own wheat production for 2026 is forecast at 87 million tonnes, up 7% year-over-year, with yields projected up 11% despite 5% fewer planted acres. The weaker ruble makes Russian wheat even more competitive globally. Meanwhile, Argentina's record 27.5 million tonne harvest sits 93% complete with yields up 43% year-over-year. Their FOB wheat at $206-209/MT continues undercutting Black Sea, French, and U.S. origins like a going-out-of-business sale at a grain elevator.

     Here's where it gets interesting. China has been ramping up wheat imports—not for the usual reasons, but because their record-high corn crop came with elevated mycotoxin levels requiring blending with "clean" grain before use as feed. Australia and Argentina are expected to ship 5-6 million tonnes to China by mid-2026. China's wheat import quota remains at 9.6 million tonnes for 2026 (unchanged from 2025), but actual purchases could exceed quota levels if feed demand persists.

     China's recent soybean purchases (1.22 MMT from last week's export sales report alone) are tied to the U.S.-China trade agreement committing China to 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans by end of 2025 and 25 MMT annually through 2028. That's putting life into the soy complex but doing exactly nothing for wheat.

     The Baltic Dry Index extended its slide to nine consecutive sessions, closing Thursday at 1,532—lowest since July 2025, down 37-40% from early December peaks. Capesize vessels (iron ore/coal) are getting massacred on slack Chinese coal demand. Panamax rates (grain haulers) ticked modestly higher late week but remain under pressure. The message is clear: global bulk commodity movement is softening.

     Diesel continues its grind lower to $3.46/gallon nationally, down from mid-November highs near $2.63/gal (NY Harbor ULSD). Expanded U.S. renewable diesel capacity, warmer winter temps, and sluggish trucking demand all contribute. Good news for farmer input costs; bad news for those reading this as a deflationary signal across commodities.

Crude oil finished around $59.44/bbl Friday (+0.4% on the day, +1% for the week) after whipsawing on Iran headlines. President Trump's comments suggesting he might delay military action and that Iran's crackdown on protesters was easing deflated the geopolitical risk premium that had briefly pushed WTI toward $65. The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point—any blockade impacts a quarter of seaborne oil—but for now, the market exhaled.

     Gold pulled back about 1% Friday toward $4,560/oz as safe-haven demand cooled, but remains near record highs set earlier in the week at $4,612.70. Some analysts are calling for $5,000+ in H1 2026. Copper hit new all-time highs Tuesday at $6.11/lb on AI data center demand before consolidating. The U.S. Dollar Index firmed slightly. Treasury markets remain in wait-and-see mode with Fed rate cut expectations pushed from June into July. Initial jobless claims dropped sharply to 198,000, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains tight.

     Managed money remains heavily net short at approximately -94,600 contracts in CBOT wheat as of the latest CFTC data—down from around -70,000 in mid-December. This is extreme bearish positioning that creates potential for explosive short-covering if any legitimate bullish catalyst emerges. The problem? No catalyst is visible on the horizon. Funds aren't wrong about the fundamentals; they're just crowded on one side of the boat.

     Markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Tuesday brings fresh positioning data. Next Friday (Jan 23rd) delivers the weekly export sales report.

     Winter wheat across the central plains entered dormancy with minimal snow cover in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Red-flag fire warnings and dry topsoil raise some concern about freeze damage if a polar vortex descends without protective snow cover, but it's not enough to change the trajectory yet. If Mother Nature wants to tighten this balance sheet, she'll need to bring more than dry topsoil and nervous chatter.

     Wheat is trapped in a price prison constructed of relentless global production, fierce export competition, and a speculative community that has hammered prices into the sub-basement and left them there long enough to acquire that certain eau de decomposing silage from three harvests ago. The Box-o-Rox indicator remains firmly in "Execute Incremental Sales on Schedule" territory. Friday's bounce was technical short-covering, not fundamental rehabilitation.

      For producers sitting on unsold wheat, this remains a market that rewards disciplined, incremental sales over heroic calls for a rally that may never arrive. The downside remains real—sub-$5.00 Chicago wheat is not off the table if USDA trims export projections or if another major exporter drops prices to move inventory. The specs are coiled tighter than a banker's smile at a farm auction, creating potential for a squeeze, but that's speculator fuel, not a producer's marketing plan.

      Avoid paying storage and interest on grain waiting for a miracle that shows no signs of booking a flight. Option strategies to protect unsold inventory or establish re-ownership after forced sales deserve serious consideration in this environment. Five cents here, a dime there—it adds up when margins are thinner than paint on a used combine.

     Watch the charts. If a new uptrend emerges, it will show up there first—probably on a day when every analyst is calling for new lows and the mood in the coffee shop is darker than burnt toast at a truck stop.

Stay tuned. We'll keep the lights on.

-GabrieletBullets® Friday, January 16, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     Baltic Dry Bulk Ocean Freight rates continue to drop, now at index level of Mid July, 2025 (-46%). Excessive capacity in bulk shipping industry and slow coal shipments from Brazil to China on industrial slowdown are in the coffee talk.

     Just in case you missed the WASDE on Monday: USDA raised estimated U.S. wheat stocks at the end of the marketing year +25 million bushels to 926 million bushels.

     For the world supply inventory: USDA increased the estimate of global wheat ending stocks at the end of the 2025-26 crop year by about 3.4 million metric tonnes (1.23%), highest in 5 years. Virtually every major wheat producing nation had a good year.

     The Australian Dollar is at it’s strongest versus the U.S. Dollar since October of 2024. Given that they compete head-on for wheat sales to the Pacific Rim, this is a moderate price edge for U.S. origins (especially for soft white wheat).

     Early trade Friday morning showed Chicago and KC both up 6-7 cents, Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) up 2 cents and Paris Milling wheat indicating up 3-4 cents per bushel equivalent. Short-covering heading into a 3-day weekend following a slow and flat week seems the most likely. There is little urgency coming out of the wire services and most observers. Wheat trading will be closed on Monday in the U.S. while observing Martin Luther King Day. Futures will open again at the regular evening time Monday PM (5 PM PST – see above)

Chart of Wheat VS Beans VS Corn

Stay tuned.

-Gary

PS:  Marketing-Trading tip for better results: Journal every thought and decision about selling wheat. It will crystalize your mind-process and prevent errors. Price objectives, Open orders, Rationale or Basis for the move, Market data notes. It is certain that consistent reasoning will be reinforced, while impulsive actions are prevented. The massive and continuous temptation to hold for higher prices has led to serious issues for many of us at one time or another…use limit orders and/or stops. Talk to your merchant, they are interested in your success.    

MarketBullets® Thursday, January 15, 2026: Pre-Dawn

The wheat market continues to behave like a market that knows it has a problem, but is still negotiating with itself over how painful the solution needs to be. Relative performance remains poor versus soybeans and still lagging corn on most look-back windows, even after corn absorbed its own unpleasant surprise earlier this week. There has been no rush to cover shorts, no panic buying, and no sign yet that demand has been coaxed into doing the heavy lifting. This is what excess supply looks like when it settles in for a while. The global production overhang has not gone away. Southern Hemisphere harvest pressure is real, and it is arriving into a world that already had more wheat than it knew what to do with. That reality is forcing hard conversations at the farm gate. Some of those conversations are about fertilizer rates and chemical programs. Others are about rotations, acreage, and whether certain marginal fields earn the right to be planted this year at all. These are not academic discussions. They are the market’s mechanism for rationing production, and they rarely resolve themselves quickly.

It is worth remembering that the price collapse of the past few years did not occur in a vacuum. War-driven price signals pulled production forward aggressively, expanded infrastructure, and rewarded yield at nearly any cost. The hangover from that period is still working its way through the system. The market does not apologize when it reverses those incentives. It simply lowers the price until behavior changes. This is uncomfortable, but it is not broken. It is how price discovery works when politics stays mostly out of the way. The trend in wheat remains sideways, frustratingly so. Sideways trends can be every bit as damaging to morale as outright declines, especially when storage and interest quietly drain working capital. The Box-o-Rox (BoR) indicator remains firmly in “Execute incremental sales on schedule” mode. That message has not changed. There is still downside available, and the market has not yet demonstrated the kind of failure that would suggest it is finished probing lower. When that changes, it will show up in the structure first, not in headlines or forecasts. For those holding inventory, this is still an environment where discipline matters more than opinions.

Incremental sales, option-based enhancements, and a clear understanding of carrying costs are not optional luxuries. They are survival tools. Options remain underutilized by many producers, not because they are ineffective, but because they are unfamiliar. Familiarity comes only from repetition. Small positions. Real numbers. Real time. No shortcuts.

Overnight trade has done little to alter the picture. Chicago SRW is fractionally lower to unchanged. KC HRW is narrowly mixed, off a half-cent at times. Minneapolis spring wheat is steady to slightly firmer. Paris milling wheat is indicating modest weakness on a per-bushel equivalent basis. No market is breaking ranks. No market is leading. We continue to watch long-established lows closely. A clean break would not be a surprise, but neither would another extended stretch of sideways churn designed to wear out patience. The market will decide. Our job is to respond, not predict.

Stay tuned. -Gabriel

MarketBullets® Wednesday, January 14, 2026: Pre-Dawn

      Have a look at the relative price performance between wheat, corn and soybeans since November/December.

      If it is getting to feel like wheat has been unfairly beaten up over the last couple of months when compared to soybeans (with all those Chinese purchases), Wheaties are not alone. Corn has also suffered, but not as much on a relative basis as Beans and wheat, in spite of USDA raising average yields. On the whole, grains face a global tsunami of production, much of the extra emerging from the southern hemisphere this year. Producers all over the world are overheating their calculators. Some are pulling the old iron implements out of the weeds to save on chemical costs. Others are considering a re-shuffle of their rotation plans or even letting some acres go fallow for a season. It’s a rough, but not totally unfamiliar environment. It is the first time in our memory where there is just too much grain all over the place.

     Some of the problem is the simple result of very high prices generated by war in Ukraine for a couple of years that has mostly been erased by the market in the last three years, but the effect still lingers in the farming infrastructure. The market is going to solve the problem of too much wheat in its implacable way; by reducing the price to a point where demand rises and production falls until we reach a supply/demand balance that allows producers in efficient regions to make a living and still feeds the world’s hunger. As nasty as the process can be for producers, it is likely far better than assigning market power to politicians. At least it will be faster to reach “fair value” with free markets. In the end, being wholly dependent on government for farming survival is not as “safe” as it may appear to be on paper. An environment of transparent pricing, competitive bids and individual risk management brings more efficient production, better innovation and more intelligent allocation of assets, but success in such an arena depends on smart marketing by individuals, along with reliable, unobstructed pricing by a wide variety of competitive bidders. Let’s protect our open markets!

    Sorry for the rant! Those checks from the govmint are welcome, if always too short. For some of us it means survival. The trend in wheat prices has at least been stable in a sideways pattern. There is still downside available! The Box-o-Rox (BoR) indicator is still in “Execute Sales on Schedule” mode. When a new uptrend emerges, in spite of negative expectations and all manner of gloom hanging over the market, it will show up in the charts first. We have yet to meet or witness anyone who can tell the future, but like the crowd guessing at the number of jellybeans in the jar at the fair, the market brings us reality and a good guess about the direction of the price movement. Forecasts are interesting and even useful at times, but they are not a good basis for a marketing plan.

     David Kohl, a well-known economist and professor at Virginia Tech produced a readable article presented by Farm Progress. It helps to light the way to north American farming success amid global changes. Have a look.   

     Wednesday morning’s wheat market is flat. Chicago unchanged. KC up ½-cent, Minneapolis spring wheat up 1 to 1½ cents, Paris indicating 1 to 4 cents lower equivalent per bushel. The trend remains sideways with a constant threat to break long-established lows.

     Stay tuned.

-Gary 

MarketBullets® Tuesday, January 13, 2026: Pre-Dawn

The Drama on Monday was in the corn, leaving the price of wheat friendless. USDA’s data had no positive elements. The Export numbers were mildly improved from last week, but far short of what would have been enough to lift the whole complex.

     Wheat producers and marketers with unsold wheat inventories must be actively seeking edges, including option strategies. The margins of conservative option positions may seem thin (5 cents here, a dime there), but it can add up. If you are uncomfortable with the language and concept of using options to enhance your marketing, there is only one way in; daily study. Using an idea, however non-intuitive it may seem, takes exposure, with lots of repetition and skull sweat over time. It is amazing how [the applications of] options become much more valuable when the labels and patterns become familiar. You don’t need any fancy training programs, but it helps to find someone who has some experience willing to share what they know. Start small. Take one (1) position and watch it work. Get used to the time frames and expiration calendar. Do the math a few times (What the hell is “Delta” or “Time Decay” anyway?). It’s worth the time and effort, even if you don’t end up applying the ideas for more than a trial run, it will help sharpen your market awareness.

     The trend in wheat prices is flat, near long-term lows. There is still downside possible, but we will see clear evidence of a price failure if it happens. Meanwhile, try to avoid paying storage and interest on unsold wheat.

     Stay on this channel. We’ll keep the lights on for you.

-Gary

MarketBullets® Monday, January 12, 2026: Close

     Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat roared up to the moment of data release from USDA with a plus-8¾-cent trade, then promptly dropped 19¾ cents in the following 30 minutes for a net negative 5 cents on the Monday session. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) fell 22 cents in the same timeframe to end down 3½. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) was the least affected with a minus 1¾ cents and Paris 11% milling wheat -8 cents per bushel equivalent.      

     The most powerful influence prompting Monday’s price drop in Chicago/KC wheat was a very negative (-23½) corn market due to a surprise corn yield increase to a record 186.5 bushels per acre when the trade was anticipating a. It was a 2.5 bushel per acre miss. Corn production acres were also up. The overflow from corn swamped the overall market tone.

     Wheat export inspections were better than last week, but the percentage lead over last year’s pace slipped .8% week-on-week to 19.2%.  

     U.S. wheat stocks-in-all-positions showed a slightly negative total of 1.675 billion bushels, 102 million bushels above last year’s total at the beginning of 2025, above the average trade pre-report guess by 39 million bushels.

     U.S. wheat plantings were spotted at 32.990 million acres, above the trade expectation of 32.413 million.

The combination of wheat production, inventory and shipments being mildly negative and a heavy corn market suggests more sideways-to-weaker wheat markets.

     Global wheat ending stocks have reached a 4-year high as well.

     Dismal stats to go on with. For marketers, the Box-o-Rox indicator was challenged in early trade Monday morning, but by the close, the spread between current prices for Chicago March delivery and the BoR indicator was at 20 cents, continuing the “Execute incremental sales on schedule” status.

More to come. Stay with us.     

MarketBullets® Monday, January 12, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     The Baltic Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Index (BDI), tracking 23 different bulk shipping routes around the world, has declined 40% since the first week of December, 2025. Grains, normally shipped in “Panamax” vessels (60,000 to 80,000 metric tonnes) account for about 10% of the Index value, but it has been fewer iron ore shipments from Brazil to China that have led to most of the recent price declines. Offers from longer freight distances may become slightly more competitive versus offers from shorter distances in a falling rate environment. 

     New all-time high at $4,612.70 printed in February gold delivery contract Sunday night, January 11 for Monday, January 12, 2026 session record.

     Institute for the Study of War (ISW), January 11, 2025: “Iranian Security Personnel Deaths: More Iranian security officers have died during the current protests than in any other protest wave in Iran. IRGC-affiliated media reported on January 11 that at least 114 regime security personnel from the Law Enforcement Command (LEC), Basij, and IRGC have been killed since the start of the protests on December 28.”

     This just seems like it is more than a crowd of rock-throwing civilians involved. The regime is crying that it is “foreign influence”, which usually causes us to snort derisively, but there is a discernable difference emerging.

     For the world outside of Iran, it may be merely a headline, but the gold market may be hinting that it is more. Ominous, but the markets seem calm, with crude oil up slightly to the middle of last month’s price range. It reads like a potential change in geo-political momentum.

     No comments beyond “strong condemnation” from Russia on Venezuelan interventions and diplomatic positioning from China. The BRICS coalition is suffering from upsets in Iran and Venezuela and both hotspots are costing Russia money.

       U.S. wheat markets are not very sensitive to either of the two events.         https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-11-2026/

     Monday morning’s wheat market start is showing more enthusiasm than is normal ahead of the January World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE), quarterly inventory of grain Stocks and the first Plantings reports of the crop year. Early AM Chicago wheat trade was matching pre-Christmas highs, now about 25 cents above the post-Christmas lows. Front-month Chicago March delivery contracts are trading only 7-10 cents below our Box-o-Rox indicator line, above which a close would trigger “suspend incremental sales” status. The USDA data-dump is likely to set the pace for the month. Trading ahead of a report with the reputation of the January statistics release is unwise.

     We will attempt to assemble a summary post-report. It may take the trade some time to absorb the data.

     Stay tuned to this channel for the next chapter in the saga.

Gary  

MarketBullets® Friday, January 9, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     As of very early trade on Friday morning in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat, the December 2026 contract is trading unch’d. We're hovering 25 cents above November's long-term lows on the continuous charts, still trapped in a price prison with all the excitement of a tax seminar in a library during a power outage.

     Here's where we stand: Chicago SRW dropped 42-44 cents for calendar year 2025. KC HRW matched it tick for tick. Minneapolis HRS showed slightly more spine at only minus 15¾ cents, but that's like bragging you only lost one leg instead of two (Sorry – Lame Joke). Paris Milling wheat (our Black Sea price proxy) was down $1.39 per bushel equivalent. The pattern continues to trade with all the volume and enthusiasm of a funeral procession for Marcel Marceau

     Today's fundamental circumstances are not price friendly for wheat. The global abundance of wheat is the stuff dreams are made of for end-users, but down the road, producers will have their turn at the top of the ferris wheel when low prices have slowed production down and demand has continued to grow.

For us, many of whom can grow anything we want (as long as it is wheat), this is a patience-taxing circumstance that requires market analysis resembling that of a speculator – more opportunistic and nimble, less plodding and methodical.

     Awareness of where the market is and how it's moving is the essential factor for controlling risk. It need not be stressful.

     There is still downside potential in this market, so incremental sales on a schedule can end up looking very smart. If the direction changes, it will be clearly visible. The idea of a "re-owning" plan is worth deliberate study in any environment where sales have to be made at ugly levels to keep cash flow going. It carries risk, but if done appropriately, it's often far better than taking the same risk with uncovered wheat in the bin.

     Stay tuned for Monday's USDA reports. Until then, hang loose. Avoid abus

WATCH LIST FOR WASDE RUNUP:

Diesel: Watch it

Gold: Watch it

US Dollar Index: Watch it

Ruble vs Yuan: Still weird

2-Yr T-Note: Ticking

S&P: Hovering just below a brand-new all-time high on Jan 7.

Good hunting!

-Gabriel

MarketBullets® Thursday, January 8, 2026: Pre-Dawn

Victoria, Australia, a state in the extreme southeastern corner, grows about 15% of Australia’s wheat production. Recently weather there has been extremely hot, reaching a 45 degree Celsius high this week (about 113 degrees Fahrenheit). The wheat crop in that region as they entered their spring season was dry, with stress and some crop shrinkage. Currently high temperatures will have limited impact, as harvest is in its late stages for the region. They have experienced damaging fires  

     Baltic Freight went down to July 11, 2025 level, now down 37% from its highs in the first week of December 2025.  China has made moves towards opening the Argentine corridor and itself.  The State-owned COFCO purchased ~65,000 tonnes Argentine wheat—first significant bulk commercial shipment since the 1990s.

Chicago SRW futures hovering around $5.10-5.17/bushel, testing the December 17 low of $5.04—representing a 7.5% annual decline and a near-two-month low. Kansas City HRW showing relative strength with modest gains earlier this week. The bearish momentum stems from overwhelming global supply meeting lackluster demand.

This is the narrative that's reshaping Southern Hemisphere dynamics—Argentina's 2025-26 harvest reached a record 27.8 MMT (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's latest revision, up from 27.1 MMT just two weeks ago). The harvest is 93% complete as of December 30, with yields averaging 63.94 bu/ac versus 44.61bu/ac last year—a 43% jump driven by abundant rainfall.

Wheat stocks in Argentina soared to 9.1 MMT (up 24% YoY), creating logistical bottlenecks. Truck deliveries to Rosario terminals hit 2 million tonnes in November—double normal volumes. Argentine FOB wheat for January delivery at $206-209/MT is now more competitive than Black Sea, French, and U.S. supplies.

Record yields came with a protein penalty—many regions showing 8-10% protein versus the standard 11.5%, raising milling-quality concerns but creating feed wheat surplus.

Managed money net short in CBOT wheat: -94,626 contracts as of December 30 (increased 24,747 contracts week-over-week). KC wheat specs: -18,319 contracts net short.  This is an extreme bearish positioning that creates potential short-covering fuel if any bullish catalyst emerges, for example a surprise adjustment in wheat acres.   

This upcoming report is historically the most volatile day of the year for grain markets. Wheat has a 67% historical probability of rallying, with average gains of 16 cents if bullish or losses of 26 cents if bearish.

What to watch:

• Initial U.S. winter wheat planting estimates for 2026 crop

• Final 2025 production numbers (currently at 1,985 million bushels, a 9-year high)

• Export demand adjustments

  With specs heavily short and January 12 WASDE approaching, the technical setup suggests volatility ahead. Wheat at $5.10 is testing critical support near the October 2025 lows. A breakdown below $5.00 would signal further technical deterioration; conversely, any surprise tightening in USDA's balance sheet could trigger aggressive short-covering given the extreme positioning.

Stay tuned

MarketBullets® Wednesday, January 7, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     Diesel has printed a new low back dating back to the first week of June, 2025, based primarily on expanded U.S. bio-mass renewable diesel production capacity and warmer than average early heating season temperatures. Trucking fuel consumption has also been slower. The price of NY Harbor Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (USLD) has declined from highs at $2.63/gal in mid-November to $2.06 in early trade Wednesday morning.

     U.S. wheat export inspections for loading in the week ending January 1 were at a marketing year low of 183,305 metric tonnes (6.735 million bushels). The holiday seasonal slowdown played a role. Year-to-date cumulative shipments are now about 20% ahead of last year’s pace, about 62.3% of the USDA’s most recent target. Revised National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) expectations will be posted in next week’s World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Monday, January 12th 9:00 AM Pacific Standard Time (UTC-8) / 11:00 Central.

     There is a bit of positive in the market early Wednesday. If there are any significant moves this week, it’s highly likely they will be based on money movement by the big spec entities. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has finally caught all the way up to current Commitment of Traders (COT) reports. The funds have some significant short-sold positions in Chicago, but not much in KC Hard Red Winter futures.

     With little other data to disturb the hum of the hive this week, the focus will proceed to settle on the upcoming WASDE, Stocks and Planted acreage reports due out Monday. It’s a lot of data to parse, and this particular report has a mild reputation for producing surprises. NASS has a lot of work to do to prepare and a truncated staff with which to pull it off.

     USDA is a sprawling empire of bureaucratic activity, but our focus is on the quality of the data they have faithfully provided for many decades (The best such organization in the world). In order for our markets to be kept honest and transparent, we must have good, regular and accurate data. It is a big deal to fill out those surveys and get them back in timely. There is no way we want to be dependent on oligarchs and other large private entities for market information! Get ‘er done!

     The wheat marketing is going to require careful and deliberate “offensive coordination”, so stay tuned here.

     Good hunting!

MarketBullets® Tuesday, January 6, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     Copper has printed a new all-time high in Tuesday pre-dawn trade at $6.11 per pound. The primary drivers include high and rising demand for Data Centers that are a requirement for Ai development. The international race to achieve the highest functioning Ai (to integrate with weapons/anti-drone systems?). Copper has always been a marker for international economic health, as the red metal is a major component of construction.

      The balance of the week with see increasing market attention and some pre-report surveys ahead of the upcoming World Ag Supply/Demand (WASDE) Quarterly Stocks and Spring Seeding data dump from USDA on Monday morning, January 12th at 9:00 AM Pacific Standard Time (UTC-8) / 11:00 Central. In the absence of dramatic newswire items, the market response is likely to become slightly more conservative until after the reports. There are some analysts anticipating a reduction in wheat acres sown.

    India’s wheat sown area has reached 82.5 million acres (33.4 mi Ha) may lead to a lifting of their 4-year-old export ban.

     The March’26 Chicago futures contract chart was trading within a nickel of its 41-session negative mean line and is also parked right on top of its 136-session descending mean line. This market has not ventured more than 15 cents from these two converging lines since the November high at $5.68. Taken together, this is a confirmation of a defined short-term trend. There is no technical buy signal. Our Box-o-Rox indicator is in full “Execute Incremental sales mode”. The nominal use of this indicator would have sold 1/12th of the coming new crop forward at this point, leaving the remaining 91.6% of the new crop unsold. This is just the beginning of a marketing effort. There are option strategies and other ways of enhancing results without leaning on price forecasts, forecasts which in the long run can cause serious problems with marketing results. Call your merchant and discuss the current calendar spreads and how to use them. Email or text us with questions, too.

     Stay tuned. This stuff is trackable. Let’s track it!

MarketBullets® Monday, January 5, 2026: PM

     Monday’s wheat trade gave wheat marketers a little grace, with a gain of 6 cents per bushel in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) and KC Hard Red Winter wheat contract prices. Minneapolis managed a nickel up in it’s March delivery contract, even as Paris 11% milling wheat faded 3-5 cents per bushel equivalent.

     The pattern of the wheat charts has not been altered in recent sessions, as it appears to have honored the lows once again. There is enough wheat trading at the current price level to keep the market physically caught up. Country movement is sufficient and the buyers are not stressed. The market, a wiley and cantankerous beast, is getting complacent and lazy. The trend is sideways with just enough worry to keep prices honest.  

     The MarketBullets® Box-o-Rox indicator closed with 19 cents between the current Chicago price and a status change back to “Suspend Sales” state. The first pro-forma “Execute Incremental Sale” for 2026 has been completed as of January 2nd (our example of regular a decision sales point) with 1/12th of the anticipated crop coming in summer of ’26 now liquidated.

     Venezuela facts: Venezuela represents less than 0.2% of global wheat trade. They have zero (0) established capacity for wheat production.  

     Venezuelan wheat imports for marketing year 2024/2025 have been projected for a 2% increase at 1.32 million metric tonnes. Some of the regularly imported wheat has been Soft White wheat (Canadian) and occasionally some Soft Red Winter from the U.S.

     The current political turmoil has had no impact on Venezuela's established channels of wheat imports from Turkey, Canada and Russia (in that order). They do have milling concerns that absorb the imported wheat   

     World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Stocks reports coming next Monday, January 12th 9:00 AM Pacific Standard Time (UTC-8) / 11:00 Central.

     Coming into the new year, the funds have been adding to net short-sold positions in Chicago, having reached over 100,000 net short contracts. The price variations (mostly in SRW) most likely will be through funds adjusting ahead of the WASDE next week.

     Steady to slightly positive is the call for now.

Stay tuned.  

See Australian Dollar and Gold (high tendency for both).

MarketBullets® - "More Sense Per Bushel”.

MARKETBULLETS® COMMENTARY - JANUARY 1, 2026

"More Sense Per Bushel®"

Happy New Year, and welcome to a familiar story. We're kicking off 2026 with wheat everywhere, prices going nowhere, and enough geopolitical theater to make Shakespeare jealous, But let's dig in. Wisdom must be in here somewhere.

     The wheat market ended 2025 the way it spent most of the year—flat on its back. Chicago SRW dropped 42-44 cents for the calendar year. KC HRW matched it tick for tick. Minneapolis HRS showed a little more spine at only down 15¾ cents, but that's like bragging you only lost one leg instead of two. Paris Milling wheat (a Black Sea price proxy) Down $1.39 per bushel equivalent. Ouch.

We're currently hovering 27 cents above November's long-term lows, trading in what I've been calling our "familiar 50-cent range" (AKA “Camshaft pattern”)  with all the volume and enthusiasm of a funeral procession. There's no visible factor on the horizon large enough to move prices beyond this pattern. We're in a grind-it-out market, not a trending market.

The only legitimate bullish factor on the board is our export pace—marketing-year-to-date commitments of 725.8 million bushels are running 22% above last year, marking a nine-year high. That's not nothing. But it's the lone bright spot in a sky full of storm clouds.

Let's talk about Argentina, because if you're not paying attention to what's happening in the Pampas, you're trading blind. Early forecasts for Argentina's 2025/26 wheat crop were optimistic—around 20-23 million metric tonnes, maybe pushing toward their 2021/22 record of 22.4 MMT if everything went right. Well, everything went right. Then it went really right. Then it went so right that agronomists started running out of superlatives. The Rosario Grain Exchange, which knows a thing or two about Argentine wheat, kept raising their estimates. First to 23 MMT. Then 26 MMT. Then, in what can only be described as "are you serious?" territory, they landed at 27.7 million metric tonnes. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange saw that and raised them to 27.8 MMT. That's not only a record. That's 25% above the previous record. That's the agricultural equivalent of breaking the current MLB single season home run record (73) by fifteen dingers.

So, what happened? Near-perfect weather at every single growth stage. Low winter temperatures during vegetative development. Regular rainfall for tillering. Beautiful head development. Excellent grain filling. Then dry conditions for harvest. It's like Mother Nature decided to show off. Diego Ugrotte, a farmer in Buenos Aires province, put it perfectly: "We knew it was going to be a good harvest, but not to the extreme of the figures we ended up with." The Rosario Exchange called the yields "unprecedented." When crop scouts use words like that, you pay attention.  Here's the kicker: High yields typically correlate with lower protein content. Argentina's producing mostly 11.5% protein wheat and below, versus their normal 11.5-12.5% mix. So they've got a mountain of feed wheat hitting the market instead of premium milling wheat. Some traders who already sold to African millers expecting 12.5% protein are scrambling, switching their vessel-loading plans from Argentine ports to northern Europe and even Brazil.  Argentina's wheat is already undercutting French milling wheat in Southeast Asia and has pushed Black Sea origins almost completely out of the region in the past two months. And because their harvest started slow, their export window extends longer than usual, meaning they'll be competing in markets well into spring.

Here’s the bottom line: Argentina just added roughly 5.5 million metric tonnes more wheat to global supply than anyone expected six months ago. That's not a rounding error. That's a market-moving event, and it's bearish as hell for U.S. prices.

Australian wheat production saw a record in their 2022-2023 season. the five-year average crop is 33.74 million metric tonnes

• 2020-2021: 31.9 million tonnes

• 2021-2022: 36.2 million tonnes

• 2022-2023: 40.5 million tonnes

• 2023-2024: 26.0 million tonnes

• 2024-2025: 34.1 million tonnes

• 2025-2026: 35.6 – 37 million tonnes projected

Aussie wheat exports are expected to be about 24 – 27 million tonnes this year, potentially above their five-year average by as much as 3-5 million tonnes, but the Aussie dollar is presently at its strongest level since November 2024, making U.S. wheat is more competitive in Pacific Rim destinations than it's been in a while.

The Russia-Ukraine war continues grinding along, with Russia attacking Ukrainian port facilities and Danube River infrastructure while Ukraine keeps stabbing at Russian supply lines. Neither side can make significant advances. Black Sea grain movement has been throttled down to 20% of "normal" capacity or less.

Ukraine established an alternative shipping corridor back in August 2023—western Black Sea route along shallow waters near Bulgaria and Romania. It's hard for Russian submarines to operate there, and it's close enough to NATO territory that Moscow has to think twice about aggressive interdiction. The corridor's been functional throughout 2024, but it's still operating at drastically reduced capacity compared to pre-war levels.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative—the UN and Turkey-brokered deal that allowed Ukrainian exports—was terminated by Russia on July 17, 2023. There's been talk of resuming it. There's always talk. Russia hosted discussions. Trump and Zelensky are supposedly 90% toward an agreement.

Here's what we wrote on December 27: "Pro tip: News of 90% agreement is not 100%. Watch what happens at Mar-a-Lago and be prepared to move on wheat futures Monday." It might not make for polite dinner conversation but War is bullish for wheat prices. Peace is bearish. We know how that sounds, it can feel morally grotesque but it's the market reality we're dealing with.  That’s on the powers that be, not us. The war disrupts supply and keeps a floor under prices. A peace settlement floods the market with cheap Russian and Ukrainian wheat, and U.S. prices take a beating.

Russia, despite Western sanctions and the war, exported record volumes in 2022/23 and 2023/24. They've been pricing their wheat "well below the competition," and they control roughly 25% of the global wheat market. Their 2025/26 harvest is forecast at 79.7-87 million tonnes—area's down 5%, but yields are up 11%, more than offsetting the decline. Ukraine's 2025/26 forecast is 17.9 MMT, a 13-year low, down 23% year-over-year. Their soils were extremely dry during planting, profitability is poor and they've cut sown area, usually marginal production hectares. The USDA's Kyiv attaché expects Ukrainian exports at potentially less than half their record volume.

So yes, the war is terrible and we should all hope for peace. But from a purely mercenary market perspective, any serious peace settlement releases a slow, but visible tidal wave of Black Sea wheat that will continue to hammer global prices. That's the anchor keeping our market in check, and it's not going away anytime soon.

Speaking of Russia, let's talk about Vladimir Putin's latest geopolitical chess move: the BRICS grain exchange. Putin's been pushing this idea since early 2024, and he got the Kremlin to put it on the official agenda. The concept is simple: Create a grain trading platform that rivals the Western-dominated pricing systems—CME Chicago and MATIF Paris—where prices are set in U.S. dollars. Instead, BRICS countries would trade grain in their national currencies, establish their own pricing methodologies (replacing the traditional open market tender system) and reduce reliance on the dollar. The current BRICS members are (B)razil, (R)ussia, (I)ndia, (C)hina, and (S)outh Africa—plus new members Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 

The numbers are impressive on paper. BRICS countries account for 42% of global grain production (about 1.2 billion tonnes annually) and 40% of global consumption. Russia exports 22% of the world's wheat and shipped $43.5 billion in agricultural products in 2024. They've got a historic $26 billion contract with China to supply 70 million metric tonnes of grain over twelve years. Egypt, the world's largest wheat buyer, is a BRICS member. So is Iran, another major Russian wheat destination.

Putin wants to create an "OPEC for wheat"—a cartel with coordinated pricing power. In October 2024, Moscow even recommended that its leading exporters avoid selling wheat below $250 per tonne at international tenders. That's not a suggestion; that's price-fixing in slow motion.

Here's the problem: OPEC works because its members are all major oil exporters. Most BRICS countries are net wheat importers. Only Russia and Brazil are major exporters. China and India—the two economic heavyweights that would make this thing credible—are hesitating because they're worried about secondary U.S. sanctions and losing access to Western markets.

One analyst put it perfectly: "At this stage, it is difficult to see the benefits for countries other than Russia, so many countries are taking a wait-and-see stance. However, if trade friction between the U.S. and China worsens under the next U.S. president, China could fall in line. Translation: If Trump (or whoever's president) gets into a serious trade war with China, Beijing might decide the BRICS grain exchange is worth the risk. But until then, it's more declarative than operational. Meanwhile, Russia's playing the long game with what they're calling "grain diplomacy." They've been providing free wheat to poor African countries—200,000 metric tonnes to Somalia, Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, and Eritrea. Pure geopolitical leverage. They're replacing Ukrainian food supplies in low-income countries while positioning themselves as the “benevolent supplier”. It's weaponization of food, dressed up in humanitarian clothing.”

For U.S. wheat producers, the implications are straightforward: increased competition in traditional markets (Middle East, Africa, Latin America), potential challenges to CME's role in global price discovery, and pressure on the dollar as the reserve currency for agricultural trade. Our (U.S.) ace in the hole is QUALITY. High-protein U.S. wheats are maintaining a 19-27 cent premium over soft red winter. Even with cheap Russian wheat flooding the market, there's demand for superior U.S. production values. That's the spark of hope—not geopolitical maneuvering, but the fact that quality still matters in a world awash with mediocre grain.

Shifting focus to gold, because when the safe-haven asset of last resort posts its strongest annual performance since the 1979 oil crisis, that's not just a market story—it's a new chapter in an ancient saga.  Gold gained 62-65% in 2025. It hit over 50 all-time highs during the year and peaked at $4,549.78 on December 26. As I write this, it's trading around $4,320 per ounce.  What's driving it? Demand by banks, traditional retail (India, China…), fund risk managers, even small speculators. But there is a whiff of something else, a background idea about the U.S. dollar status and it’s relationship to gold in the world. It’s a slow motion idea but cannot be ignored. Trump's tariff rollout accelerated the rally in late April. Central bank buying of precious metals has been relentless—750-900 tonnes of gold annually versus the pre-COVID average of 400-500 tonnes. For three consecutive years, central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes. That's not normal. That's central banks around the world quietly saying, "We don't trust the dollar-based system as much as we used to." More on this later.

ETF inflows added $77 billion and over 700 tonnes to holdings in 2025. The Federal Reserve cut rates in December to 3.50-3.75%, lowering the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. And geopolitical stress is everywhere—Russia-Ukraine, Middle East tensions, U.S.-Venezuela friction. Goldman Sachs is calling for $4,900 per ounce by end of 2026. J.P. Morgan says $5,055 average in Q4 2026. Bank of America is at $5,000 but warns of short-term pullbacks. Ray Dalio, who's forgotten more about markets than most people will ever learn, said in September that "a well-diversified portfolio would have somewhere between 10% and 15% in the portfolio of gold."

Here's what gold at these levels really means: Smart money is terrified. When safe-haven assets hit 40-year performance records, it's not about opportunity—it's about defensive positioning. Sophisticated investors are expecting trouble. Gold doesn't scream. It whispers. And right now, it's whispering, "Buckle up."

Finally, some good news that doesn't come with seventeen asterisks. Diesel prices averaged $3.66-3.67 per gallon in 2025, down from $3.76 in 2024. We're currently trading around $3.62. The EIA is forecasting an average of $3.50-3.64 per gallon for 2026, a 7% decline from 2025.  Why? U.S. crude oil production hit record levels—13.5-13.6 million barrels per day—and is expected to maintain those levels through 2026. Non-OPEC+ production growth is outpacing global demand. Global inventories are rising. Brent crude is forecast to average $69 per barrel in 2025 and decline to $52 in 2026. The "drill baby drill" approach is flooding the market, and OPEC+ discipline is weakening. For once, an input cost is moving in our favor. But—and there's always a but—lower diesel also signals weak global demand and potential economic slowdown. The 7% projected decline in fuel costs helps producer margins, but it suggests broader economic weakness that could pressure grain demand. So yeah, we'll take the relief. But let's not mistake cheaper diesel for robust economic health. It's more like finding twenty bucks in your coat pocket while your house is on fire. Nice, but contextually concerning.

One more thing nobody's talking about enough: The USDA lost over 20,000 employees in the first half of 2025—18% of their total workforce. NASS, the statistical arm we all rely on for crop data, lost 30%+ of their staff. They're closing regional field offices and consolidating into five hubs. More staff are expected to leave rather than relocate. That means loss of institutional knowledge, fewer boots on the ground, and less reliable crop estimates. On this, we all have a mission: Please fill out the survey(s). They need the data to make it useful to us all. Without the USDA, we would be relying on the oligarchs for market information. The Trump administration says they're committed to protecting research and statistics capabilities, but restructuring takes time. Meanwhile, we're trading on data that may be shakier than it's been in decades. Expect increased volatility on report days. Expect bigger surprises. Expect more frequent revisions. The numbers we're using to make data-based, million-dollar marketing data decisions are being compiled by a skeleton crew. Factor that into your risk management.

We're heading into 2026 with record wheat supplies, cheap Russian grain controlling a quarter of the global market, potential peace talks that would release more supply, a BRICS exchange trying to rewrite trading rules, unfavorable La Niña weather for U.S. yields, and the lowest spring wheat plantings in 55 years. Our single bullish factor: Strong export pace, 22% above last year.

That's it. That's the list.

We're in a 50-cent range environment with low volume and no visible catalyst large enough to break the pattern. It ain't much, but it's better than a continued 45-degree slide. The strategy remains the same: Watch the charts for signals before the news. Stay disciplined. Use options for protection. Don't fight the supply tape—there's wheat everywhere, and everyone knows it. Our competitive edge isn't hoping for a supply shortage that isn't coming. It's quality and execution timing. Clean, graded and timely wheats are holding a premium because quality still matters, even when the world's drowning in grain.

Call your merchant. Discuss collar strategies, covered calls, put protection. We're not in a directional market; we're in a "don't lose money while you wait for opportunity" market.

All that's required is open ears, a cool hand and a keen eye on the charts.

Stay tuned. The first indication of better prices will show on the charts rather than in the news. The same goes for negatives.

-Gabriel

Happy New Year! Its a fine time to make a fresh start in our marketing approach.

MarketBullets® Wednesday, December 31, 2025:

     ISW: Protests in Iran have expanded geographically and demographically since December 28... Many of the recent protests adopted an explicitly anti-regime tone.  https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-december-30-2025/

     The Daily charts portray a wheat market trade in narrow, low-volume ranges and a negative tilt over the last 4 sessions. Heading into the last trading session of 2025, the calendar year in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat and KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) futures both show minus 42-44 cents net lower. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) is about -15¾ lower, while Paris Milling wheat contracts are closing out with nearly -$1.39 (-€43.25 per metric tonne for continuous front-month charts.

     The established patterns for the complex are unlikely to change quickly, as there is no visible factor large enough to move prices more than the now-familiar 50 cents.

     The balance of this week is likely to be quiet and narrow for wheat prices.

     Stay tuned. If anything emerges worth attending to, we will post updates. Meanwhile: Happy New Year! Let’s have a better year in ’2

No comment on Friday unless there is substance. Charts will be updated.

MarketBullets® Tuesday, December 30, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The wheat complex is quiet and flat in early trade Tuesday. Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures were in a 3½-cent range that itself is in between the 38-day and 133-day statistical mean lines, a dime above recent March delivery contract lows. Volume is low. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) futures were relatively stronger, 19 cents above December’s lows. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) were trading Monday morning at 16 cents off the lows.

     The higher protein wheats have been out-performing Chicago’s lower protein contract, reflecting a global market demand for high-quality U.S. wheats, even in the fact of cheap and abundant Russian milling wheat. This constitutes the spark of hope for U.S. producers based on superior production values rather than geo-political price drivers.

     Black Sea shipping from any source (Ukrainian or Russian) has been throttled down to very low capacity. There is cognitive dissonance around the fact that it is the blight of war that is a global price-positive factor keeping global wheat moving, but a settlement is likely to prove to be a price-negative event, but this is the reality that must be anticipated going forward. There will be lots of wheat for sale in a post-war environment.  

     The only other factor of any weight is the estimated size of the maturing wheat crop in the southern hemisphere, now likely to be throttled back a bit, as is normal. The market’s anticipation of record or near-record wheat crops in Argentina and Australia is about the only supply-oriented game in town until we begin to come out of crop dormancy in the northern hemisphere, still 8-12 weeks away.

     The wheat market remains in a precarious position near long-term lows across the complex, but there are few serious price threats on the table. The same, 50-cent rally potential is present ahead, providing a test of our best opportunistic efforts to sell wheat at “good” prices. It ain’t much, but is better than a continued 45-degree slide. All that is required is a cool hand and a keen eye on the charts.

     Stay tuned here. The first indication of better prices will show on the charts rather than in the news. The same goes for negatives.    

-Gary 

MarketBullets® Monday, December 29, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Monday morning heading into the last trading week of 2025 has the wheat complex market tone sloppy and slow. Paris milling wheat is down the equivalent of 2-3 cents per bushel, Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) quotes are flat to down a penny. Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) and KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) are both negative 3-5 cents.

Ukraine/Russia combat continues, with Russia attacking port facilities and other infrastructure on the Black Sea shipping system, while Ukraine continues to stab into Russian supply line points. Neither side is able to make significant advances at this point, but Black Sea grain movement has slowed to 20% of “normal’ or less. The odds of a breakthru in talks seem low.  

     Argentina’s weather is becoming hot and dry with no rain forecast for two weeks. The harvest forecasts that had been steadily expanding are due to shrink in the usual way as the crop matures may help keep wheat prices steady in the next few weeks.

     Year-end, quarter-end and month-end position trimming in the futures markets has mostly already been completed, but if there is volume this week it’s likely to be the final touches. The markets are in “holiday mode”, with lower volume and narrower ranges. The “short-straw” personnel will be at the trading desks until the new year kicks in next week, but the boss is only a phone call away

“For the grain markets there are some operational/statistical issues emerging for the new year (This paragraph is Ai generated):

• Significant Attrition: NASS and the Farm Production and Conservation Business Center (which it is part of for administrative purposes) saw over 30% of their employees leave during a recent period of staff cuts that began in January 2025.

• Department-Wide Losses: The USDA as a whole lost over 20,000 employees in the first half of 2025, about 18% of its total workforce at the time, through various separations including the Deferred Resignation Program (DRP) and other means.

• Reorganization Plans: The agency is subject to a controversial reorganization plan that calls for the closure of NASS regional field offices and their consolidation into five new USDA hubs across the country.

• Potential for Further Losses: Critics of the reorganization expect that many remaining staff may choose to leave rather than relocate, which would lead to further staffing depletions and a loss of institutional knowledge and local relationships. 

     These staff losses are expected to impact NASS's ability to collect and manage agricultural data, potentially affecting the accuracy and completeness of national agricultural statistics.”

     The Trump administration has indicated readiness to protect the research and statistics abilities of USDA, but that is likely to take some time. Meanwhile there are concerns about statistical validity of reports and staffing at FSA offices. If you need to accomplish administrative actions in your local office, better start early, it may be slow with limited staff.

     The wheat price is not trending hard. Southern hemisphere harvest will make the coffee-talk. Ukraine will be on page two. U.S. wheat export inspections will continue as the red-nosed reindeer for our wheat markets.

     Call your merchant and discuss some of the option-based marketing strategies. We are in a 50-cent price range environment.

     Stay tuned, there is always something!

MarketBullets® Friday, December 26, 2025: Closing Notes

• ·        Copper very near new all-time highs (Indication of international economic health)

• ·        S&P pushing into new all-time highs

• ·        Gold at new all-time highs

• ·        U.S. Dollar Index in lower 1/3 of 7-month sideways range

• ·        2-Year T-Note working very slowly to lower interest rates (Now at 3.43% versus 4.411% in January, 2025.

• ·        KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) 11.5% protein wheat prices gaining on Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) 10.5% protein prices

• ·        Australian Dollar, now at its strongest since November, 2024, trending upward versus the U.S. Dollar (making U.S. wheat more competitive into Pacific Rim destinations).

•      The trend in U.S. wheat is steady. Chicago futures are 27 cents above November long-term lows.

•      In the marketing-year-to-date, U.S. wheat export sales commitments total 725.8 million bushels, 22% above last year’s pace, a nine-year high.

MarketBullets® Wednesday, December 24, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Copper on the move toward new all-time highs, trading just above $563 per hundredweight, looking at last June 2025 spike high at just above $595/cwt. This is an indicator of the overall health of the international economy. A mild wheat price-positive.

     Gold has been setting new all-time highs for the last three sessions, now at $4,555 per Troy ounce. This is usually a gauge of stress on the system, but the duration and intensity of the move up in gold contract prices suggests there is very large capital movement. Retail buyers as a group are not usually capable of such a force. This is likely part of a larger story that will unfold in the new year (or beyond).

     Baltic Ocean Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Index now at its lowest since mid-July 2025. Declining demand and excessive capacity along with a declining risk profile in Black Sea Region underlie the move downward. For wheat, the lower rates tend to allow a wider competitive marketing circle for U.S. wheat, reaching more markets.

     Australian Dollar is moving to new highs last traded in October of 2024, making Australian wheat more expensive against the recently fading U.S. Dollar for many buyers.

     The trendline for wheat is still negative in both short and long-term lines, with Box-o-Rox showing status as “Execute incremental sales on schedule”. The relief from lows for Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat in the last 4 sessions has raised the price back up about halfway to the trading levels of the first half of December, still within the trading range that has contained Chicago SRW since July of 2024. This very long verification of those lows makes that range a reliable indicator. If the bottom fails, it will open a trap door to a lower range. If it manages to climb above the top (around $6.00-$6.17) it will be looking into a more positive price environment than we have seen in 3 years.

     The markets close early Thursday around 10:05 Pacific Time (UTC-8) for Christmas Eve. There will be an abbreviated session on Friday as well. Many offices are closed until Monday, December 29th.

     MarketBullets, LLC will be updating charts, but commentary will be limited or absent until Monday.   

     Merry Christmas!

MarketBullets®  Tuesday, December 23, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Trade talk has the positive wheat price movements of the last 48 hours being pushed by attacks on Ukraine’s port loading facilities on the Black Sea, said to be in retaliation to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil production plants. This seems a weak reason to buy Chicago wheat. The reality is that volume has been low and technical trading is providing what there is to work with in Chicago. Country movement of wheat into merchandizing channels has been lower, partly due to Christmas Eve/New Year’s weeks, and partly due to the effect of price weakness. A dime of two may shake loose some wheat, but not a big flow. The market has almost nothing to digest.

     U.S. wheat export inspections were 627,443 metric tonnes, of which Soft White Wheat were 29.6% for the week ending on Dec 18. Marketing year to date total wheat export shipments are 22.89% ahead of last years pace.

    Oil shipments from Venezuela do not constitute a big market-moving volume, but the interdiction of “sanctioned vessels” will have an effect on Venezuela’s oil-based economy. The world is watching this with mild interest. Combining these actions with slightly elevated tension in the Black Sea has had an effect on global shipping rates, but the last couple of weeks have seen the Baltic Dry Bulk Rate Index in decline to levels last seen in early November, suggesting that perceived risks of ocean shipping have declined. The crude oil market has not reacted with added risk premium. Conclusion: The global oil trade and bulk shipping industry are not anxious.

     Gold has printed new all-time highs a couple of days in a row. The February delivery contract traded up to $4,530.80 per Troy ounce early Tuesday morning, $132.80 per ounce above October’s previous all-time highs.

     The wheat market is behaving calmly and holding above recent lows. Without a significant event, and with tapering volume after many major year-end position decisions were already completed last week, it seems like we will drift into the month-end, quarter-end and year-end with little fanfare.

     The next major USDA data-dump will come on January 12th at 9:00 AM Pacific Standard Time (UTC-8)/11:00 AM Central (UTC-6) with the World Ag Supply/Demand (WASDE) and Stocks in all Positions reports. These are key reports, capable of market-moving statistical adjustments. Until then, it will be wire-reports and crop reports from the southern hemisphere.

     We are always watching, and will closely examine the markets each day. Stay tuned to this channel, but enjoy the interlude, as there will surely be some drama down the road.

-Gary

MarketBullets®  Monday, December 22, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Early Trade Monday of Christmas week began with a nice little rally up a nickel in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures, actually a recovery for that contract from a severe beating in the week just ended, in which SRW gave up 19 cents versus a minus 3½ cents in KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) and a plus 1½ in Hard Red Spring (HRS). Paris logged a  2-cent equivalent gain for the week. Why Chicago should be ground zero is related to the global hedge business and the fact that the big spec trading funds were replacing previously lifted short positions. Overall the wheat complex put in a week without much direction.

     The last trading week of the calendar year is likely to be thinly traded and un-vigorous, although geo-political steam pipes are still rattling and many of the participants would be only too glad to interrupt the season.

     U.S. wheat exports remain the bright spot in the market factor lineup. Wheat export sales for the last week were 460,700 metric tonnes (16.93 million bushels) about as expected by the trade, leaving the Marketing-year-to-date total sales at 695.9 million bushels, still 23% ahead of last year.

     Andre Sizov at SovEcon, a private Russia-based advisory firm, raised his estimate of this year’s Russian wheat crop to 88.8 million metric tonnes, the third largest crop ever.

     Ukrainian shipping has slowed due to damage to loading facilities in Black Sea ports, but the  Baltic Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Index has pulled back from highs reached two weeks ago, suggesting some relaxing from extreme risk attitudes of ocean freight insurance firms.

     Some trade talk suggests that Russian producers are likely to switch hectares out of wheat if they are able, leading to a decline in production in 2026. The rumbling has been going on for some weeks. Global wheat production should shrink with prices at multi-year lows, pressuring farmers to switch to alternative crops if possible, a natural reaction market-forces, ultimately making prices more buoyant going forward. The market’s ears are tuned to this frequency.

     Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) projects their wheat crop at 3.1 million metric tonnes (about 113.9 million bushels) above USDA’s December WASDE estimate.

     Just about everything in the wires is old news. The market has no reason to move.  At least no fresh input during Christmas week makes a mild quiet period. Chicago is catching up some of its losses this morning.

     Stay tuned. A check-in doesn’t take long.

PS: Gold is printing some new all-time highs early Monday, December 22, 2025

     Merry Christmas!

MarketBullets®  Thursday, December 18, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     In the early morning hours of Friday, the markets seem exhausted. The price is in a very narrow, 2½-cent range. It would take a large move up, like 10-15 cents to change the technical tone to positive, which seems very unlikely. Corn and soybeans are also moribund, trading narrow, quiet channels. The holiday week lull has begun already.   

   The higher protein wheat varieties are leading the wheat complex in a price-positive way, hinting that consumer preferences may be rising for higher protein foods in general, but the softer wheats are also abundant. This is still just a wisp of an idea, but it will show up in the spreads between Chicago versus KC or Minneapolis. Any positive influence, usually a feature of demand, is welcomed by all wheat producers.

     The wheat market has not changed its pattern, testing and re-testing the multi-year lows. We have been here before. The only factor categories that are presently relevant are demand stimulus and supply inhibition. The world wheat production capacity needs shift only a little before the balance between supply and demand, defined as the price, will once again move upward. It’s a tale as old as time, but time is what is needed for the change to come. Meanwhile…    

     Don't wait for a miracle under the tree. The 2026 crop cycles are already beginning. With La Niña threatening a drier season for 2026, one thing that might save prices is a weather scare that hasn't happened yet (more like Halloween than Christmas). Until then, the disciplined, incremental seller survives to farm another day. 

PS:    We have seen more nonsensical statements written about multiple major markets in the last week than we have in many years. It may be that there are some maverick Ai trading systems generating quotes with no-one at the wheel (human that is). Please beware of any statement that appears to be hyperbolic in its concept. If it seems strangely extreme or apocryphal in nature, it’s prudent to move it into the “hold for later research, source and fact check” bin and otherwise disregard.     

-Gary

MarketBullets® Thursday, December 18, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The following is a series of speculative comments based only on experience and observations.

    China has cancelled or is about to cancel several vessels of wheat, apparently based on practical reasons, i.e. too expensive, even as a political gesture. The alternative sources of wheat are cheap enough to justify the costs of cancelling (there are always contract penalties for cancelling a commitment). The timing of such a cancelation in this case is coincident with interdiction of oil tankers approaching or departing from Venezuelan oil facilities, some of which are presumably destined for China.

     There is an idea that the Chinese perceive the agreements reached in the recent negotiations as “at convenience” and at competitive prices only, suggesting that they have no intention of over-paying for wheat at any time, political agreements notwithstanding. “Certainly, we will buy your wheat/beans/corn in the agreed-upon volume during the agreed-upon period, at competitive pricing, of course.” If it suits them, they refrain or cancel. Whether they care about Venezuelan oil enough to run a “tit-for-tat” program is immaterial. Politically driven economic decisions are rarely sound business and cannot be relied upon for marketing for any extended time.

     The Christmas week doldrums is about to be upon the markets. It feels like the big positioning days have come and gone already this week. Wednesday’s market felt like it was trimming the edges of the fund positions heading into the first weekend of Christmas Week. We will watch the volume of trade for confirmation of this theory. We expect the next few days of wheat trade to be less vigorous. It is true that under lower volume conditions it takes less order-power to move the price, so volatility can still be a factor even when the trade desks are holiday-staffed.

     The trend for wheat is negative, nearing multi-year lows once again. The market has honored those lows so many times over the last 2-3 years, it has become a term of complacency. It is somewhat of a setup, with the funds having backed off from their heavy short-sold positions in recent weeks. If the long-term lows are penetrated, they may cut loose with orders re-establishing their shorts, creating a sling-shot effect to the downside. Do not let this dismay, but carry out incremental sales on schedule. Box-o-Rox is simple, but not likely to mislead too far off the path of righteous wheat sales. It’s a defensive-style indicator, rarely triggering sales at price tops, but being more aggressive in negatively sloped markets. The price of trading on the hope of higher prices later can be very high.

     The end-users are doing their best to eat more wheat. We have established a solid export trend this year without China. There is reason to continue. Stay tuned.  

-Gary

MarketBullets® Wednesday, December 17, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Wheat futures are playing a familiar tune – back to testing the October lows after a brief November detour. Chicago March'26 settled Monday at $5.09, barely a dime above the five-year low of $4.93¾ touched in mid-October. We're now looking at prices last seen consistently in August 2020, a lifetime ago in market terms.

Brushing up on the narrative arc leading to our current condition we see that Mid-October saw wheat hit that five-year basement on the weight of massive global supply. November brought a 50-60 cent relief rally as spec funds covered shorts and rumors of Chinese buying sparked brief optimism. Now December has given it all back… and then some. Tuesday saw wheat slide some with Chicago down 9-11¾ cents, KC down 6-7 cents, and Minneapolis down 2-3 cents at midday.

Why do we find ourselves examining the prices’ proximity to our toes?  The December WASDE report landed like a bomb on December 11th. Global wheat production now pegged at a record 837.8 million metric tonnes, up 9 million tonnes from November's already-bloated estimate. This is the big leagues – Canada jumped to 40 million tonnes (from 37), Australia now sits at 37 million (their third-largest harvest on record), Russia climbed to 87.5 million, and Argentina – well, Argentina is writing a new record at 24 million metric tonnes in the USDA's book, though the Rosario Grains Exchange is calling it 27.7 million. Argentina is back to being the price-setter for global wheat exports, and their quotes dropped $7 per tonne in December to become the cheapest wheat on the planet.

     Ending stocks are forecast to climb to 274.9 million tonnes, a four-year high after five consecutive years of declines. U.S. Wheat Associates summed it up bluntly: "Large global supplies continue to be the overwhelming bearish price driver."

….But here's where the plot thickens: Russia announced their export tax on wheat is now set to ZERO. Argentina lowered export duties. Ukraine confirmed they will NOT reinstate export limits for 2025/26. These policy moves aren't just bearish footnotes – they're opening the export floodgates from the world's biggest shippers just as we're already drowning in supply.

…And then there's the geopolitical wild card. Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks is hanging over the market like a wet blanket. A peace deal means sanctions ease, which means even MORE Black Sea wheat and corn flooding global markets. It also explains why crude oil is challenging three-year lows and why the Russia-Ukraine risk premium has evaporated from wheat prices. The trade that once feared supply disruptions now fears supply abundance.

The U.S. picture is nuttier than a squirrel turd. Export inspections continue to shine – 488,025 metric tonnes (17.93 million bushels) shipped in the week of December 1, up 61.38% from the same week last year. Marketing year total now stands at 425.42 million bushels, running 21.9% ahead of last year's pace. Week-ending November 13 export sales hit 850,000 metric tonnes (31.23 million bushels), the second-highest weekly figure of the marketing year. Total commitments through mid-November reached 666 million bushels, 24% greater than last year and a nine-year high.  AND prices continue to fall!

Interpreting the surreal nature of this phenomenon we can identify a global market where U.S. wheat is now the cheapest available (CBOT basis), while it's STILL not cheap enough to out-compete Argentine or Russian offers. The International Grains Council noted wheat hit that five-year low in mid-October, bounced to a four-month high in November on Black Sea tensions and Chinese interest rumors, then surrendered the gains as reality reasserted itself.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down 1.58% for December to date, which should be helping U.S. competitiveness. It's the best thing we've got going, frankly. But a weaker dollar can't overcome a global wheat avalanche.

Commitment of Traders (COT) data caught up through late November showed spec funds had covered a big chunk of their shorts during the November rally – about 57,000 contracts bought back in Chicago wheat since mid-October. That surge of short-covering provided the rocket fuel for November's 50-60 cent pop. But it also depleted some of the stored buying energy. The next phase of buying by funds will require motivation from factors not yet visible to the trade.

The one-month trendline in wheat futures is downward. The December WASDE confirmed what the trade already suspected but had briefly hoped wasn't quite as bad as feared. USDA now projects the 2025/26 season-average farm price at $5.10 per bushel, down another 20 cents from the prior month estimate. That's about 70 cents below the 16-year average of $5.84.

     So we've got excellent crop conditions supporting next year's production at the same time global supplies are already at record highs. The calendar year 2026 isn't looking particularly friendly from a price perspective.

     Natural Gas has declined 24% over the last seven sessions due to seasonally warmer weather, reducing heating demand. This at least provides some relief on input costs for the 2025 crop, as anhydrous ammonia production costs track natural gas prices.

Diesel is still reaching for its mid-October low, now less than a nickel below current trading. The energy complex across the board is feeling the weight of warm weather and peace talk optimism.

The paradox we're living with: export pace remains exceptional, U.S. winter wheat crop looks outstanding, the dollar is cooperating, and yet prices are testing five-year lows. This is what happens when global production records get broken in the same year that major exporters eliminate export restrictions. The fundamentals are grinding us down, one WASDE revision at a time.

The Box-o-Rox remains in "Execute incremental sales" mode, set there on November 21 and showing no signs of needing adjustment. The indicator runs on a calendar year marketing cycle, with northern hemisphere producers about to begin new crop sales for harvest 2025.

We're not looking at corn or soybeans for sympathy. Corn is down about a dime since December 2nd highs, beans are off 6.8% since November 17. The entire grain complex is feeling the weight of abundant global supplies.

The chart patterns show room underneath before we truly test the long-standing lows established in October. We're hovering at the doorstep, not crashing through it yet. But the psychological resistance of that $4.93¾ level is nearby. If peace talks progress and Black Sea exports surge, we may find out what's under that floor.

Prudent marketing remains critical. The multi-year price lows already established continue to be reinforced. This isn't a market where you wait for better prices – it's a market where you execute a disciplined, incremental sales strategy and watch the trendline boundaries for new behavior. There are trade tools that can assist with reducing the ongoing risk of being perpetually long wheat. Call your merchant and review strategies for 2025 crop.

The fundamentals aren't likely to improve until we see some evidence of reduced global acreage or weather-induced production losses. Neither is on the radar yet. Southern hemisphere harvests are proceeding under favorable conditions. Black Sea crop has entered dormancy and needs substantial winter precipitation to improve prospects, but Europe is benefiting from recent rainfall. It's an orderly, well-supplied global wheat market – which is exactly what producers don't need right now.

Stay tuned. We're watching for any headline that might inspire the buyers who are present but not yet organized. Five-year lows have a way of eventually attracting bargain hunters. First we have to find the actual floor, while keeping your head up.

Tuesday, December 16, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Natural Gas has declined 24% over the last seven sessions due to seasonally warmer weather, reducing heating demand.

     Diesel is still reaching for its mid-October low, now less than a nickel below current trading early Tuesday morning. The trade is talking about a continued decline into the new year. We will be watching, as crude oil prices are challenging their 3-year lows and natural gas is retreating from its recent spike high on December 5th, largely driven by warm heating season temperatures.   

     The U.S. Dollar Index is now down -1.58% for the month of December to date. This is a part of the good export results that represent the best supportive factor for wheat prices in the current trade.

     The pressure is on for a settlement between Russia and Ukraine, which would have a price-negative effect on global wheat prices (and oil – see above). If the movement toward a “peace deal” falters, the cost of shipping on the Black Sea will create a choke-point for trade of energy and food in the region.

    U.S wheat export inspections revealed 488,025 metric tonnes (17.93 million bushels) of U.S. wheat shipped in the week of December 1, about 23.2% above last week and 61.38% larger than the same week last year. The marketing year total is now 14.124 million tonnes (425.42 million bushels) of wheat loaded out of U.S. ports, 21.9% above lasts year’s pace.

     Argentina is beginning wheat shipments to China and is likely to be the price-setter for global wheat exports in coming months (Argentina is capable of dominating the global wheat export trade as they did in their pre-socialist period).

     The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) reports are catching up, now revealing a dramatic reduction in net short-sold positions in wheat futures that occurred in late November, coinciding with the recent wheat price surge. The current reduction in net short-sold positions has spent a big chunk of the market’s potential pool of rocket fuel, opening the door to a re-establishment of big spec shorts.

     The early hours of trade just after midnight Tuesday morning showed a bad attitude, with a downward shot of 5 cents under Monday’s close, but by about 1:30 AM, the market was clawing back up toward unchanged. There are buyers, they just aren’t very organized yet. It will take a headline or two to inspire them. We are not looking to soybeans or corn for much sympathy price support, but they were both holding stead early Tuesday AM.

     The one-month trendline in wheat futures prices is downward, with or without an obvious mandate beyond an over-used bearish supply story, but the charts still have room underneath before another test of the long-standing lows. We will just keep watching the boundaries for new behavior.

     Stay tuned, its worth money.  

Monday, December 15, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The U.S. Dollar Index continues to press lower from recent, Dec 21 highs. Month-to-Date the index has dropped 1.47%, making U.S. wheat slightly more competitive in global markets.

     U.S. wheat export sales for the week ending on November 13 were 850,000 metric tonnes (31.23 million bushels), beating trade expectations and the second-highest weekly figure of the marketing year so far. Total U.S. Wheat export sales for the year November 13 stand at 666 million bushels, 24% greater than the same period last year 2024-25 and a nine-year high. There is no other factor in the present environment that is as price-supportive as this, with or without Chinese ongoing purchases.

     The price performances of corn and soybeans are adding significant drag on wheat prices. Corn has declined about a dime since December 2nd highs and beans are down 6.8% since November 17. China has been buying soybeans, although at a pace deemed not likely to complete their recent negotiated purchase agreement amount by the new year, although there would seem little likely consequence. There is some doubt about whether the total agreed volume of purchases of soybeans for the calendar year (12 million metric tonnes), is considered by Chinese negotiators to include beans purchased earlier this year (about 6 million metric tonnes) or not. About 3.4 million tonnes have been taken since the negotiations so far, including flash sales announcements on Thursday, Dec 11 and Friday, Dec 12. This is only indirectly affecting wheat prices, but remains at least a mild negative to date.

      Commitment of Traders (COT) reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have caught up as far are the week ending on November 28. For Chicago wheat futures, large speculative entities (funds) have reduced their net short-sold positions as of November 18th are the smallest net volume since a year ago in the first week of November’24. This represents a “covering”, or buyback of about 57,000 contracts in aggregated, previously sold contracts among the category of traders since mid-October. That surge of buying helped propel the Chicago wheat price upward some 50-60 cents to its highest since last June, but it has depleted the stored buying energy represented by heavy net short-sold positions. The next phase of buying by funds, if realized, will require some motivation from factors not yet visible to the trade.

     The market is already acutely aware of the weight of the supply coming from high yields and good harvesting weather in virtually every major wheat production area in the world this year. It is really old news, already baked into current prices and not likely to grow fundamentally worse for price-hungry producers from this point. If there is any change, it would be more likely to be a shrinkage of crop estimates for the southern hemisphere, as the natural tendency of crop expectations to expand into maturity and then shrink as estimates are refined unfolds. All of this just suggests that the long-standing, multi-year price lows already established will continue to be reinforced. This is small comfort, but is better than a continued 45-degree decline. Prudent marketing, based on incremental sales on a schedule, along with some practical observation of the trendline, is still a key.

     At least Diesel is approaching a challenge of lows reaching back to last June. Natural gas contracts (a key component of ammonia fertilizer production cost) have pulled back from recent highs, although remaining in a broad upward channel.

     Box-o-Rox as reflected in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat contracts, remains in “Execute incremental sales” mode. The indicator runs on a calendar year marketing cycle, with new crop sales about to begin for northern hemisphere producers.

     There are trade tools that can assist with reducing the ongoing risk of being perpetually long wheat (as we all are, forevermore). Call your merchant and check on what these can do for your program. Its worth the trouble of reviewing the strategies.

     Stay tuned, there is another chapter coming up…  

-Gary

PS: Gold is pressing on potential new all-time highs, trading at $4,375 per Troy ounce, against the previous all-time high of $4,398 printed in mid-October.    

Friday, December 12, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Wheat prices in the Chicago March’26 contract stabilized (again) on Thursday with a return to Wednesday’s opening price after dipping its toe into the cold water under the “camshaft” pattern lows. Early Friday trade had Chicago, KC and Minneapolis all within +2 to -2 cents around unchanged. Paris was indicating about the same.        

     S&P stock index, gold and copper contracts are all leading toward new challenges of recent all-time highs

     Natural Gas has returned downward to its 22-month channel mean line. Warm weather.

     NY Harbor Diesel contracts are at their lowest since October 22nd.

     Wheat’s sister grains are providing little sympathetic support. Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (National Supply Company), otherwise known as “CONAB”, is Brazil's key government agency for managing agricultural policy, supply, and food security. CONAB is now predicting a Brazilian corn crop of 138.88 million metric tons, 40 mt less than their previous report. Their corn exports forecast is unchanged at 46.5 million tonnes, and ending stocks were reduced to 13.55 million tonnes.

     Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to total 177.12 million tonnes, 476,000 tonnes less than last month. The soybean export forecast was steady at 112 million tonnes, with ending stocks down to 12.92 million tonnes, a reduction of 325,000 tonnes about -3.63%.

     CONAB sees Brazil’s wheat crop at 7.96 million tonnes, a 300,000-tonne increase. Their wheat carryout at 1.99 million tonnes was raised 70,000.

     USDA’s figures show Brazil corn crop at 131 million metric tonnes, 175 million tonnes for beans, and 7.7 million tonnes for wheat.

     The trendline, or maybe more appropriately the 16-day sideways price range for wheat saw just one attempt at a lower breakout on Wednesday, which was promptly repudiated in what looked like a scramble back to safety by a small crittur. The trade’s attention on Chinese buying has faded, and the WASDE on Tuesday did not provide much price-directional inspiration. This is now a one-day-at-a-time market.

     The Box-o-Rox was set in “Execute incremental sales” mode on November 21 and has given no reason to change back.

     The trade still hopes for Chinese buying but is becoming philosophical about any reliance on that factor for price support.

Stay tuned, it’s so quiet that anything that happens is likely to seem loud.

Thursday, December 11, 2025: PM

Wheat prices in the Chicago March’26 contract stabilized (again) with a return to Wednesday’s opening price after dipping its toe into the cold water under the camshaft pattern lows.

S&P stock index, gold and copper contracts all leading toward new challenge of recent all-time highs

Nat Gas has returned downward to its 22-month channel mean line. Warm weather.

NY Harbor Diesel contracts at lowest since October 22nd.

Thursday, December 11, 2025: Pre-Dawn

The wheat market's post-WASDE resilience continues to impress, with futures holding their ground in the face of what could have been considered bearish ammunition. Chicago March contracts are trading in the mid-$5.40s early Thursday, maintaining position within that familiar $5.30–$5.50 band we've been monitoring. Kansas City and Minneapolis are showing similar steadiness, with HRW up a few cents and HRS tracking slightly firmer.

What's notable isn't just where we are, but what we've survived. The December WASDE threw 7.5 million tons of additional global production at the market – record crops in Canada (40 MMT) and Argentina (24 MMT), plus meaningful bumps from Australia, Russia, and the EU. Yet here we sit, essentially unchanged from pre-report levels. This tells us something about the market's underlying structure and the positioning of the trade.

Russian FOB quotes continue their interesting divergence from the USDA's headline numbers, now holding $10/ton above pre-report levels. The market is clearly pricing in weather risk for Russia's 2025/26 crop despite the USDA's conditional 87.5 MMT forecast. Those "poor dormancy conditions" we mentioned Wednesday are keeping a bid under Black Sea quotes, even as the official statistics suggest adequate supply. This dynamic bears watching – if Russian winter wheat stress becomes more apparent in coming weeks, it could shift the global competitive landscape considerably.

The Australian Dollar's 11-session rally (up 3% from late November lows) is now showing signs of consolidation, trading steady around 64 cents U.S. early Thursday. This currency move has provided some natural support for PNW white wheat export competitiveness, though the massive Australian harvest looming (37 MMT) will test that relationship.

U.S. export inspections remain the bright spot – we're running 21% ahead of last year's pace through early December. But as we noted Tuesday, the January 12 WASDE will be the critical test. If that pace slackens and USDA is forced to raise U.S. ending stocks, we could see a retest of support levels. Conversely, sustained export momentum could finally give the market permission to challenge the top of this range with conviction.

The "camshaft" pattern we've been tracking since November 21st – now 13 sessions deep – continues to coil. With Argentina's harvest accelerating and Australian wheat about to flood export channels, the next four weeks will clarify whether this range-bound behavior evolves into something more directional. The geopolitical wildcards – Black Sea shipping security, Russian production concerns, Chinese buying patterns – remain in the deck and could be drawn at any moment.

The market is telling us to be patient. We're listening, but keeping at the ready.

Wednesday, December 10, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Despite bearish global data in Tuesday's WASDE report, U.S. wheat futures held their ground as bad news was largely priced in and domestic numbers remained stable. Chicago SRW closed effectively flat with a decline of roughly a quarter cent, while Kansas City HRW posted a modest gain of approximately half a cent. Minneapolis HRS held firm, slightly outperforming winter wheats. The muted reaction signals a market in "wait-and-see" mode, trapped in a $5.30 to $5.50 range for Chicago March futures without a catalyst strong enough to break the pattern.

The headline number that caught attention was the 9 MMT increase in global wheat production to 837.8 MMT, driven by upward revisions in major competitor nations. Canada raised its production forecast by 3 MMT to a record figure approaching 40 MMT, while Argentina raised its forecast by 2 MMT to a record near 24 MMT, and Australia is contributing to what's shaping up as another strong Southern Hemisphere harvest. This influx of competitively priced wheat from the Southern Hemisphere and Canada will pressure U.S. export prospects over the next three to six months. The market already knows U.S. exports are struggling to maintain pace, and if shipments don't accelerate, USDA may be forced to raise ending stocks in the January report, a bearish development that would reinforce downward pressure on prices.

Here's where it gets interesting: Russian FOB quotes jumped $10 per ton post-WASDE despite USDA raising Russia's 2025/26 production forecast to 87.5 MMT. The contradiction lies in the fact that the 87.5 MMT projection is conditional on winter crop survival. As S&P Global notes, Russia's 2025/26 production "will largely depend on the winter crop survival rate" since crops entered dormancy in poor condition, the worst in 20 years, which threatens lower survival rates. The market doesn't buy the USDA's optimistic forecast until spring condition reports confirm it. Meanwhile, Russia's current 2024/25 crop remains supply-constrained by the draconian 10.6 MMT export quota for the February 15 through June 30 period, sharply diminished on-farm stocks that are down 37% year-over-year in the Southern Federal District, and export taxes that climbed to Rb4,769/MT or approximately $37.30 by late December. The market's $10 per ton jump in Russian quotes says traders are pricing risk, not USDA's aspirational numbers.

Tuesday's report essentially punted on U.S. adjustments. Domestic ending stocks were left unchanged despite clear evidence of weak export performance through the first half of the marketing year. The market interpreted this as the USDA buying time until the January 10, 2026 report, which will include final 2025 production numbers based on December surveys, winter wheat seedings for the 2026 crop that historically represent a more volatile report than December's, and likely adjustments to export and ending stocks if current trends persist. This puts enormous pressure on January's data. If export sales don't materially improve, USDA will have no choice but to acknowledge reality with higher ending stocks, a development that would cement the current trading range or test lower support levels.

With December WASDE in the rearview mirror, trader focus shifts to confirmation of the Southern Hemisphere harvest with Argentina and Australia crops hitting export channels in January through March, Russian winter crop survival as weather developments through dormancy will be closely watched, Black Sea geopolitics where any escalation could threaten the flow of cheap Russian and Ukrainian wheat, and U.S. export performance as weekly sales data will be scrutinized for signs of life. The January 10 WASDE will be the critical inflection point. Will it deliver surprises, or will it confirm the market's range-bound trajectory? The only certainty is there will be no shortage of opinions.

As always, we'll monitor the technical setup and pre-report positioning, cutting through media bias and social media noise to bring you intelligence that matters for your operation. There will be "a right place at the right time" for each of us. We'll help you determine when and where that place is.

**Stay tuned.**

-Gabriel Hofer  

Tuesday, December 9, 2025: Post-WASDE

Highlights of the December WASDE:

     All of the supply and use categories for 2025/26 U.S. wheat are unchanged this month. However, there are offsetting by-class revisions for both feed and residual use and exports. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $5.00 per bushel.

     Global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 7.5 million tons to 1,097.8 million on larger production from several major exporting countries.

·        Canada is raised 3.0 million tons to a record 40.0 million on the final 2025/26 production forecast from Statistics Canada.

·        Argentina is increased 2.0 million tons to a record 24.0 million on widespread favorable conditions throughout the growing season, especially in Buenos Aires, the largest wheat producing region.

·        The EU is raised 1.7 million tons to 144.0 million on updated official government statistics for several countries.

·        Australia and Russia are increased 1.0 million tons to 37.0 and 87.5 million, respectively.

     Global 2025/26 consumption is raised 4.1 million tons to 823.0 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for several of the aforementioned countries. World trade is 1.5 million tons higher at 218.7 million on greater exports for Australia, Canada, and Argentina more than offsetting reductions for Turkey and Ukraine.

     Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are raised 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries.

     Although the balance of the WASDE report was negative for wheat, the trade already had factored in most of the above stats. The Chicago wheat futures price reaction as of the end of the first 30 minutes of trade after the WASDE was released was mild, leaving the price of Chicago March delivery contracts near the low end of the last 11-session period. If there is an inspiration for buyers, it is that the bottom did not fall out.   

More later.

Tuesday, December 9, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Tuesday’s early AM trade showed wheat futures leaning back toward the center of the narrow coiling pattern of the last 12 trading sessions in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW), up 2-3 cents in KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) as well, while Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) was flat to down 1½-cent. Paris was indicating plus 2-3 cents per bushel equivalent quotes.  

     Weekly wheat export inspections for the week ending December 4 showed 393, 341 metric tonnes (14.453 million bushels) of which PNW white wheat comprised about 31%. The marketing-year-to-date total for U.S. wheat export loadings stands at 13.634 million metric tonnes, just shy of 21% ahead of last year, same week. This is still the shining star in the market fundamental sky. It is the end-users that will finally break the pricing stalemate in the global wheat market. It just takes time.

     USDA’s World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) report Tuesday morning, December 9th - 9:00 AM Pacific Standard Time / 11:00 Central) will briefly hold the market hostage, per standard trade procedure, as pre-report trade estimates are held up to the light of the new official figures. After the new numbers are absorbed, we will see if price adjustments are required. For reports in this annual time-frame, surprises are relatively rare, but as the statisticians in the USDA offices have had to hustle up some somewhat sketchy data due to the now-ended funding hiatus, so there is some uncertainty. Bloomberg-surveyed analysts average pre-report guesses are 894 million bushels for wheat ending stocks. This and other expectations will illuminate the first hour of trade after the report’s release.

     We will armchair the report and then comment Tuesday afternoon.

     Stay tuned.

Monday, December 8, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Market bellwether Chicago wheat futures contracts have laid down a “camshaft” pattern over the last 11 sessions since November 21. In a market that is awash is bearish supply reports and negative or absent commentary and a thundering silence with regard to Chinese imports of U.S. wheat, the regular price behavior of U.S. wheat futures across the board is a non-intuitive sign of strength. This story has been the signature of the wheat market since at least last summer and has inspired some complacency among U.S. wheat producers, slowing cash wheat sales movement out of the country. Now we are anticipating some possible gobbermint injections of cash into the hands of producers that may slow cash sales even more, as the economic pressure to sell at prices that are uncomfortably low will be reduced. The effect on nearby delivery prices is positive…until it isn’t.      

     The farm-gate effects of continued export sales momentum at its present positive pace will tend to reinforce the long-term baseline on the charts, and may trigger some short-term rallies to the top end of the 60-cent range. At least some opportunistic, incremental sales near that range high may make sense, as the steady drumbeat of big southern hemisphere wheat harvest stories will surely continue.

     The trend is sideways, now with a 30-cent buffer zone above the well-established long-term lows. Moving-average-driven indicators such as Box-o-Rox (BoR) in this environment will likely produce some whip-saw style patterns. Each time the price crosses that line, it will trigger yet another assessment of whether there is enough fuel to justify overriding the indicator. Trading “Systems” in general may struggle. Let’s keep our wits about us, even in this increasingly holiday-sleepy period.     

     The Russian Ruble is at its strongest exchange rate since the month before they moved to the Chinese Yuan as main exchange currency.

     The Australian Dollar has been rising in U.S. Dollar terms for 11 sessions. It is now up about 3% from the low of November 20th and trading at its strongest versus the greenback since late September, accounting for some of the resilience of PNW white wheat’s price firmness over that period.

     USDA will bring out their monthly World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday morning, December 9th - 9:00 AM Pacific Standard Time / 11:00 Central), with Bloomberg-surveyed analysts averaging guesses at 894 million bushels in wheat ending stocks, potentially 7 million bushels below last year. 

     Stay tuned in. Any disturbance in the somewhat delicate geo-political balance could create a significant wheat price move in short-order.

-Gary

Friday, December 5, 2025:  Pre-Dawn

          While everyone's been watching the Putin-Kushner diplomatic theater and tracking spec fund gymnastics, Argentina is about to drop a 23-million-tonne wheat bomb on the global market. The Rosario Grains Exchange is calling it—Argentina's 2025/26 wheat crop is on track to match the 2021-22 record. Industry leaders are literally saying "we've never seen wheat like this."

     That's not hyperbole from rookie observers; that's seasoned agronomists staring at 6.7 million hectares of planted wheat with 99% rated good-to-excellent condition. August rainfall in Gancedo, Chaco exceeded 115 years of monthly historical records. When you're breaking precipitation benchmarks that stretch back to before the Model T Ford, you know the soil moisture situation is beyond favorable—it's biblical.

          Stacking up the global wheat deck:

·        Argentina: 23 MMT (matching all-time record)

·        Australia: Bumper crop despite quality downgrades from excessive rain

·        Ukraine: 2026 wheat crop estimated 24.6 million MT (Andre Sizov @ SovEcon) - If realized, would be their largest crop since 2022

(year of Russian invasion).

·        Russia: 87.19 MMT (up 9.7% from 2024's 79.48 MMT)

·        Canada: Stats Canada just revised wheat production to 39.96 MMT—that's 3.3 MMT higher than September's estimate and a

price-negative gut punch to spring wheat.

Add it all up and you've got a supply landscape that looks like someone left the faucet running for six months.

      If you thought November was repetitive, December is doubling down. The pattern repeats like a broken record, but that doesn't make it less real.

     Exportable surpluses so large they'd make a warehouse manager weep. U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025/26? Try 900 million bushels—a six-year high. Not exactly the scarcity story bulls dream about.

    The Specs are still playing their short-covering-reload game. They trimmed their combined net short across all three wheat exchanges from 109K contracts to 52K, then—surprise!—started reloading shorts when reality whispered "abundant supply" in their ears. It's like watching someone on a treadmill insist they're making progress toward the door.

     But Wait—There's (Slightly Less) Bad News

U.S. wheat export inspections for the week ending November 27 came in at 385K tonnes—still running nearly 20% ahead of last year's pace for the marketing year. That's not nothing. It's also not enough to offset the fact that global wheat production for 2024/25 is forecast at 828.89 MMT (30.5 billion bushels)—the highest since at least 1990.

     Meanwhile, calendar spreads across virtually all wheat futures markets continue their steady tightening—especially in front months. This suggests increasing demand pressure on nearby contracts.

     The geopolitical Theater: Now With More Threats.  There is a reason they call it a “theater”.  Putin escalated the rhetoric this week, suggesting one solution to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil tankers would be to "cut Ukraine off from the sea." That's a significant escalation threat—if it materializes, it could severely limit Ukraine's export capacity and trigger another leg higher in global prices. But here's the thing about threats: they're like Chicago winter weather forecasts—frequently dramatic, occasionally accurate, and often overhyped until they're suddenly not.

    The Baltic Freight Index hit one-year highs as shipping insurers get progressively more nervous about Black Sea routes. Natural gas prices are at December 2022 levels, representing 60-70% of ammonia fertilizer production costs. These are pressure points worth monitoring—input costs creeping higher while grain prices lounge in the basement is the kind of squeeze that eventually matters.

     Chicago wheat is holding the bottom boundary of its established trading range—30 cents to the floor, 30 cents from the ceiling. It's a 60-cent range that knows its own limitations. Abundant supply. Adequate (but not spectacular) demand. Geopolitical noise that creates headlines but hasn't yet translated into sustained price support.

This is a market resting in a hammock strung between two trees. It's comfortable there…but less and less so over time.   All the while leaving procrastinators vulnerable to sudden movement when the hammock breaks—which it eventually will.

     Pre-holiday trade volume is evaporating faster than your optimism about making year-end sales targets. With fewer participants in the market, a modest Chinese 2-vessel order could trigger technical volatility of 5-10 cents—price movement without fundamental justification. Don't confuse the two. Just because the market moves doesn't mean anything meaningful changed. Sometimes the tail wags the dog simply because there's nobody else in the room to tell it to sit still.

     Yes, this pattern is boring. Yes, we've seen this loop more times than a bad Netflix algorithm suggestion. But here's the uncomfortable truth: repetitive markets lull people into complacency right before they surprise them.

The Box-o-Rox indicator remains wrapped around its primary measuring line, with status "Execute planned incremental sales on schedule" applied arbitrarily (to avoid whip-saw based on repeated 1-3 cent variations). That's not a call for heroics or a prediction of imminent doom. Merely a reminder that in a supply-heavy, range-bound market with geopolitical wildcard potential, discretion is the better part of valor.

     The December marketing window is closing. Charts will signal direction more reliably than peace plan speculation or freight index gyrations. Respect the fundamentals. Honor the range. And remember that vigilance isn't glamorous—but neither is explaining to your banker why you waited for a Chinese $7.00 wheat sale that never showed up.

     Stay tuned. Hungry people all over the globe are grateful for this market price.

-Gabriel

Thursday, December 4, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     There is a steady decline in the “carry” seen in the calendar spreads for virtually all the wheat futures markets, especially in the front months. The implication is of increasing demand pressure on nearby contracts.  An occasional adjustment in the spreads is not unusual, but this pattern is emerging across the board, confirming the demand increase that has already expanded U.S. exports marketing-year-to-date over last year. *Each spread chart is the mathematical difference between two different delivery periods for the same commodity. If the nearby contract period is lower than the deferred, then the chart is positive, if nearby is higher the line goes negative.

     Commercial grain storage facilities can benefit from positive spreads. A carry market (normal) pays them to store grain; “Tightening” (Inverted) spreads begin to penalize storage and draw grain into the supply pipeline. At the least, this provides some reinforcement of the lower boundaries of the long-term price outlook.

     Along with this moderate indication, the inter-market price spreads are showing an abundance of higher protein wheat that has flattened the price relationship between Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Spring. Hard Red Winter shows roughly the same, but to a smaller effect. The lower protein markets are somewhat immune to the global pressure on the higher pro varieties, but they are all joined at the hip.  

     Some of the recent nervousness in the post-China-deal period for wheat prices is the heating up of rhetoric from Russia and NATO speakers about whose fault is the “Ukraine Problem”. Putin may be all-in, but he seems more agitated when speaking lately. We don’t always trust the translated versions of his speeches showing online, but body language and facial intensity are more prominent. This is making the global shipping insurance companies very uneasy, reflected in the Baltic Bulk Freight Index rising to one-year highs. The rising temperature of talk may also trigger another leg higher in global prices.

     Trading wheat in this environment bears more difficult-to-analyze risk of the sort that is capable of sudden spikes and dips that can damage one’s wallet. Let’s be careful out there!

     Vigilance isn’t glamorous. But it’s the difference between riding the wave and getting wiped out by it.

     Stay tuned! At least it’s getting a little more interesting.    

PS:       

     Natural Gas at highest since Dec of 2022, representing 60% to 70% of the input cost of ammonia fertilizer production-.

     Baltic Freight Index is at its highest in a year – Russian threats.

     Ethanol manufacturing for the week ending November 28 has set an all-time high production level. Good corn demand and maybe (?) a mild price-lowering factor for gasoline prices…

     Thursday morning’s Statistics Canada production report is expected to show all-Canada wheat production for 2025 of 38.49 million metric tonnes, 1.87 million tonnes more than September’s estimate of 36.62 million tonnes. A price negative.

-G

PS Copper is on the move again. It’s clear that the Ai is demanding new data centers. We must comply.

Wednesday, December 3, 2025: Pre-Dawn    

     The Tuesday night-into-Wednesday morning trade drifted Chicago wheat south about 2-3 cents across the front months, a familiar pattern, as the market seeks a footing after drifting lower through most of November.

      In the same pattern, U.S. wheat export inspections for the week ending November 27 totaled 384,881 metric tonnes (14.1 million bushels), weaker than the previous week's 480,429 tonnes but still tracking about 19.95477085% above last year's pace for the marketing year. The Pacific Northwest continues to move soft white wheat steadily, also at reduced volumes compared to the prior week.

     The diplomatic theater in Moscow concluded without breakthrough. Five hours of talks between Putin and U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner produced what the Kremlin called "constructive" discussions but with no clear idea of what was constructed. Putin spent the hours before the meeting rattling sabers at Europe, saying that Russia is "ready" for broader conflict if necessary, while simultaneously claiming recent battlefield gains in eastern Ukraine. The “negotiations” will continue, but the gap between territorial demands and security guarantees remains wide enough to drive a combine through. For wheat markets, the prospect of a Ukraine peace deal remains more mirage than milestone—though eventually, a genuine cease-fire would pressure prices by restoring Black Sea export capacity.

     The fundamental supply picture is simply heavy, with exportable availability at levels that leave buyers feeling no particular urgency to step up.

     The U.S. dollar index holds steady, up roughly three-quarters of a percent since the beginning of November—not enough movement to materially shift the competitive landscape in any meaningful way.

     Our Box-o-Rox indicator remains in "Execute planned incremental sales on schedule" status. The indicator line continues to shadow current trading levels, suggesting neither aggressive selling pressure nor a compelling reason to hold aggressively for higher prices.

     The December marketing window is nearly closed on our calendar-year schedule.

The Chicago bellwether market is maintaining the bottom boundary of a well-established trading range. That long-term support zone is about 30 cents lower than the current trade.  Above, the top end of the 60-cent range is also 30 cents away. This is a market that understands its own limitations and is resting in the hammock between the trees: abundant supply, adequate but not spectacular demand, and geopolitical noise that creates headlines but hasn't yet translated into sustained price support.

     The already thin pre-holiday trade environment is likely to continue to lose weight, but never say never…the thing could produce technical volatility without fundamental justification. With fewer participants, smaller orders can cause bigger price swings than normal.  A modest buy or sell order (triggered by a Chinese 2-vessel order?) that would barely move the market in September might cause a 5-10 cent move in late December.

     Charts will signal price direction more reliably than the constant churn of peace plan speculation and diplomatic posturing.

Stay tuned. The market is a better forecaster than the negotiators.

-Gabriel

Tuesday, December 2, 2025: Pre-Dawn    

     There are no looming production problems in any major wheat production area of the world at this point. Harvest in underway in the southern hemisphere with the crops in good shape. Argentina is likely to emerge as the low-price setter.  

     The US winter wheat crop is rated 48% rated good to excellent as of late November 2025 versus 45% in the previous period and 55% last year same date.

     U.S. wheat export inspections for the week ending on November 27 were 384,881 metric tonnes, of which PNW white wheat was 1.784 million bushels, or about 12.6% of the total. Last week the total was 480,429 tonnes.   

     On Wednesday, November 26, 2025, Deere & Co (DE) reported a 29% drop in net income for fiscal year 2025, disappointing the market, causing a pullback of their common stock from recent all-time highs. On Monday, Dec 2, the stock closed about 12% below the mid-May’25 high.

Leading US-based Manufacturers of Farm Equipment:

• John Deere (DE)

• Case IH and New Holland (CNH)

• Caterpillar Inc (CAT)

• AGCO Corporation (AGCO)

• Vermeer Corporation (Privately held)

     The U.S. Dollar Index shows a steady dollar value, up about ¾-percent since the 1st of November.  

     Some buyers showed up at the opening of the day session for wheat, for a plus-3 cents, while corn and soybeans were both positive 1-3 cents as well. The trend is flat over the last 3, holiday-interrupted sessions and the longer-term picture still shows a solid, unbroken support zone going back many months.

     The next few weeks heading into Christmas and New Years are normally a less stressful trading period, but the geopolitical weather is threatening. Careful attention to marketing is more important than ever.

     Stay tuned. This is a period where charts will show key events before we have all of the important angles and dangles from the “legacy media”…or maybe that’s all the time!

-Gary

Monday, December 1, 2025: Pre-Dawn    

     Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) fresh estimate is for their wheat crop to total 25.5 million metric tonnes, 1.5 million tonnes (about 6%) above their previous estimate.

     FranceAgriMer, a French government agency estimates the French wheat crop to be 98% planted as of 11/24 and in extraordinary condition at 97% good to excellent, 1% below the last previous figure. This comes after a couple of very rough (wet) years for French producers due to bad production conditions.

     EU wheat production is anticipated at 134.2 millin metric tonnes a slender .006% increase from previous.

     The Chicago futures seem to be ready to follow the Paris 11% milling wheat contract lower, with early trade down 4-4½ cents on Monday’s new month trade. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) futures were the same as Chicago, while MPLS Hard Red Winter was up 1-3 cents.

      The Australian Dept of Fisheries and Forestry (ABARES) estimates the 2025/26 Aussie wheat crop at 35.6 million metric tonnes, about 4% up from last year. Harvest is rolling there.

     Print out a couple of Chicago wheat charts; first a monthly and then a daily. Just plain charts, no annotations. Lay them on a table and step back a couple of paces (just to where the price line is still easy to see, but the numbers are not. You will find that you have to squint really hard to see a positive trendline, especially with the longer-term monthly. The pattern there is flat. Then check the daily the same way. There is a little bump, but it has eroded some in the last few sessions, still not any firm upward channel, but maybe a test will emerge with a higher low, a required element of a reversal. The conclusion from this highly scientific examination of the data is that more patience will have to be exerted. There is still room to the downside in wheat prices.

     The Box-o-Rox indicator is in “Execute incremental sales” status. Depending on the closing settlement of the day we have chosen for monthly sales determination (the first business day of the month), we will have finished this year’s marketing and will be watching for sales on next year’s production going forward. Remember this is an indicator and not a trade generator system.

     The market is highly skeptical of a potential cease-fire in Ukraine, as Russia continues to pummel Ukriane with drones and missiles seemingly bent on killing civilians. This does not read like a resolution. Russia’s negotiating position seems to be no negotiation, or “Heads we win or tails you lose”. Meanwhile there is plenty of wheat for sale. The U.S. Dollar Index is weaker, below the lows of the last couple of weeks, a mild price-positive factor for U.S. exports.

     The USDA data system is beginning to gain momentum, so the market may be adjusting some prices. We must adapt to these recalibrations as they come. At least it is interesting to see how well the market did without the flood of data from USDA for a few weeks.

     Stay tuned and watch the recent price range for signs of weakness.

Wednesday, November 26, 2025: Pre-Dawn    

     For the current marketing Year-to-Date, wheat loadings for export shipment now total 471.7 million bushels, 20% above the same period last year and now total 52% of USDA’s full-year 900 million bushel export forecast, with 47.67% of the marketing year now past as of Wednesday, November 26.

     The Box-0-Rox (BoR) indicator line is wrapped around the current trading prize zone. Until that is clarified, the status will remain “Execute sales”.

     Wheat Charts will be updated Wednesday and Friday night, along with any “interesting” price movements in other categories.

      The Ukraine/Russia “Peace Plan” is getting closer to completion, although Russia may reject it still. For wheat prices, the effect of a cease-fire and agreement will be mild but definite negative.

     The non-Chinese demand for U.S. wheat is where we must hang our hat. There is a future in it!

     MarketBullets, LLC offices will be closed until Monday’s Pre-Dawn Update.  

     Stay tuned. Have a warm and safe Thanksgiving and behave politely with family members.

Tuesday, November 25, 2025: Pre-Dawn    

     Our little beacon in the fundamental darkness, the weekly Export Inspections report showed a total of 474,53 metric tonnes (17.436 million bushels) of wheat loaded in the week of November 20, 92.5% above the week prior and 29.7% more than the same week last year. The Philippines, Bangladesh and Mexico were once again the largest destinations. 12.84 million tonnes of wheat have shipped in the marketing year to date,19.65% ahead of last year’s pace.

     One benefit to the U.S. of a cease-fire and peace agreement in Ukraine is possible access to rare earth mineral supplies there, estimated at some 5% of global reserves. It’s a long road from here to the achievement of that objective. The end of war in Ukraine is a longer-term wheat price negative.

     Our Box-o-Rox (BoR) wheat marketing indicator for Chicago wheat is below its moving line, and is in “Execute planned incremental sales on schedule” status. There is now one (1) remaining segment of wheat for the calendar year in our pro-forma marketing plan for the 2025 crop.

     The preliminary BoR results at the 11-month market for this year are a (very) rough average Chicago lead contract sale of $5.37 per bushel against a calendar year median price of about $5.52 and an average of all daily closing prices for calendar year 2025 through November 24th at $5.39 per bushel. That is 42 cents above the lowest daily close and about 66 cents below the highest close year-to-date. The total cost of storage given an assumed 4-cent-per-month charge accumulates to about $.24 per bushel for 91% of the wheat held at the beginning of the year. Holding the entire amount of wheat in storage would have resulted in a -$.145 loss plus a total storage cost of $.48.  

*These results are un-verified and represent a blind adherence to the indicator without other influences or judgement applied.

      The trend is lower. There is a long-term base and well-tested previous support line about 40 cents below current trading levels.  

   Stay tuned.

Monday, November 24, 2025: Pre-Dawn    

     ‘Tis the season to look at macro pictures of the market and go to meetings about farm policy.

     The week of trade from November 17-21 was an emotional week for the wheat trade, as we had been anticipating a return to the market of the Chinese buyer. Somehow that had become a little like expecting Santa Claus to arrive early this year. The reality of exactly how the presents were going to show up has been exasperating, certainly not a lump of coal, but also not an electric train set or a bicycle. The PNW welcomed a few vessels’ purchase of white wheat, and some soybeans have moved, but the short-term aftermath of the much-ballyhooed agreement has not matched the hype. This is not entirely a surprise, as the Chinese are not impulsive buyers, and see no reason to rush into buying grains into an already full delivery schedule, at prices that may or may not be competitive for their business. U.S. wheat prices are more attractive than they have been for a couple of years, so we will surely see some Sino-buying action going forward, but we should probably look at this source of demand as a bonus, instead of a longer-term, reliable customer. Meanwhile, there are many good customers buying wheat every week. Some of them are loyal U.S. wheat buyers, who understand that U.S. wheat supplies are reliable, clean, timely and can fill many requirements (six varieties!).  

     Russia has a significant advantage over the U.S. in shipping wheat to China due to lower ocean freight costs and proximity, though the U.S. has advantages for other Asian markets like Japan and the Philippines.  The Russian Empire was the world's largest wheat exporter before World War I and the Revolution. It was a major agricultural powerhouse, often referred to as the "breadbasket of the world". By 1903, Russia had surpassed the United States as the world's leading wheat exporter. Around one-third of the global wheat trade originated from Russia's southern provinces and Ukraine before WWI. By 1910, Russian wheat accounted for 36.4% of total world wheat exports, but that was about the time that Russian-style collective farming began to fail.  

     Today, according to some trade estimates Russia alone will likely account for about 22% going forward and Ukraine will command between 7%-8%, putting the Black Sea combination at an average of about 30% of global wheat trade.  Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs are less about personal political ideology and more about pragmatism, personal survival, and maintaining government favor and profit, making them formidable competitors in global trade, but they are not foolish. They will not continue to push wheat into an unprofitable market for long.

     There is an equilibrium approaching in the price of wheat. The “free market” remains intact and has only one job; to allocate supplies of wheat to end-users according to availability of supply, their needs and ability to pay. Nothing moves for free, and wheat is mostly fungible, the same from one source as another. We have seen a multi-year price chart base emerge over the last two years (or nine years, if you allow that the Russia/Ukraine episode was an interruption of the basing process). Global wheat consumption taken as a lump has to be fed from a pool of wheat, of which U.S. wheat is still an important percentage. Population growth will slow, but people have to eat (dictators and autocrats know this very clearly). The secret sauce is a combination of good marketing, precision farming, good farm financial decisions (know thy cost of production!), good farm policy and…weather! It is not a disaster looming. A serious market adjustment is underway, that may open doors to new channels to sell wheat into the world. The price today sucks, but there are ways to minimize the business impact of a bad price episode. Careful attention to marketing is just one.

     Stay tuned. There is always another page in this book. Have a look at this piece By Dalton Henry, USW Vice President of Policy.   

Market Bullets® Friday, November 21, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Chicago wheat slipped beneath the 20‑day Box‑o‑Rox exit warning line, confirming downside momentum. PNW white wheat held steady, buoyed by the 132,000 metric tonne (4.85 million bushel) Chinese white wheat purchase announced Nov 20, a rare supportive headline in an otherwise heavy market. Diesel prices have retreated to Nov 4 levels, shedding $0.22 since Wednesday’s highs (the strongest since late June).

Traders are watching chatter of a possible Ukraine–Russia cease‑fire, which has weighed on crude. WTI crude now hovers just above $58, marking a slide toward four‑year lows.

The US Dollar Index remains steady, offering little directional push. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is down 5.7% since its Oct 3 peak, underscoring broader risk aversion across equities.

On the global wheat front, Saudi Arabia’s international tender for 300,000 metric tonnes of milling wheat (Feb/Apr shipment) closes Friday, adding another layer of demand-side intrigue.

Taken together, the tone is one of global supply resilience meeting fragile demand signals. Chinese buying of PNW white wheat provides a lifeline, but Chicago futures remain under technical pressure, and international tenders are unlikely to offset the weight of improving crop conditions and broader commodity liquidation.

For ongoing updates and deeper dives into these moves, check back with MARKET BULLETS after tomorrow’s close.

Market Bullets® Thursday, November 20, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Chicago, our faithful bellwether futures contract, was up 3¾-cents in the early hours of Thursday. KC plus 2½, Mpls HRS unch to –¼. Paris was indicating unch. This market is going to get a bit quieter than it has been, with a holiday week coming up, and lots of political shoes hanging up above our heads waiting to drop. The trend is upward, with Box-o-Rox showing the “Suspend incremental sales” light lit. The indicator line is only a nickel below the early Thursday Chicago March’26 futures chart price. It takes a decisive close below that line to switch to “Execute all suspended incremental sales” in this indicator (not a trading system).       

     Ukraine production of wheat: pre-invasion: 25-33 million metric tonnes. Since invasion: 17-23 million metric tonnes.  2026 currently estimated by their Ag Ministry at 23.0 million tonnes (97% winter wheat), with exports of 17 million.

     The family operated farms in Ukraine are generally 50-100 hectares (123-247 acres). As a category they produce about 20% of the national wheat crop. The other 80% is under the control of large corporate entities or Ukrainian oligarchs.    

     The U.S. Dollar Index, which had been slightly net negative for the month is no up +.53% Month-to-Date, a mild price negative. The Australian Dollar is down 1.03% versus the U.S. Dollar.

     Northern hemisphere winter wheat will be going into dormancy as temperatures are forecast to drop, at least in the majority of the U.S. winter wheat belt. There apparently will be a crop next year with a national rating of 45% good-to-excellent a couple of point lower than last year’s. Emergence of the 92% planted wheat is at 79%, slightly behind last year. Good rains are scheduled for some of the southwestern wheat states with drought on the monitor.

     The Chinese have no reason to rush into buying any U.S. ag products. They did buy some last week, apparently as a token or maybe a small gap filler in their receiving lineup, nothing market-shaking. It probably is prudent to view Chinese buying as a ‘bonus” on top of other demand points. Would you be hurrying to buy Chinese products that are available elsewhere at the same or better price, just to show your sincerity?

     It’s time to be watching the market if you have wheat to sell.

     Stay tuned in on this channel.      

Market Bullets® Wednesday, November 18, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Wednesday very early hours in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) showed something like what the next week may be; quiet, low volume, inside the previous day’s range but still cautiously positive. The market tone is exhausted, having endured intense political and financial stressors for the last few weeks.

     Last Friday and this Monday displayed an indecisive market, with a sapling uptrend and lots of wheat still to be sold, but great hopes for a global market wheat buying spree led by China. A cloud of doubt hangs on the pending SCOTUS decision about whether the well-established, IEEP-based tariff regime will survive, leaving negotiations between the Trump administration and many trading nations in limbo until the Court’s ruling becomes known.

     The fundamental supply stats are by now well understood. There is a healthy crop pending in the southern hemisphere, and a substantial amount of wheat for sale from the Black Sea region and the European Union. Prices have rallied, but are still historically low.

     Shipping insurance rates for vessels in the Black and Red Seas have climbed, as the heat from Russia’s continued probing of neighboring borders by “accidental” drone and other aircraft incursions, along with damage to port facilities in Ukraine’s major shipping points has slowed grain shipping in the region. This is global price-positive, but ultimately not a reliable source of strength for wheat.

     U.S. wheat export inspections for loading in the week ending November 13, 2025, were 246,533 metric tonnes (9.058 million bushels). The U.S. is now 19.3% ahead of last year same

Week. Shipments are at 50% of the current USDA projected total for the year, versus 45% of the crop year passed.   

     USDA’s quality ratings for the current winter wheat crop as of Nov 16th  shows 45% of the crop is in good-to-excellent condition (4% below last year this month).  36% is rated fair, and the balance is 19% poor to very poor. 

     The trend remains positive. Volatility is bound to make technical trading measurements erratic at some point, but we will remain with a “hold” on the last couple of incremental sales for the calendar year until the market fails to hold above the pattern that began on October 14th.

     Stay tuned. Stay on plan.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, November 18, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The buyers showed up on Monday at the opening of the day session in wheat trade! Monday’s session produced what appears to be repudiation of Fridays swoon. Volatility is to be expected in the current environment, so our only question is, “what’s next?”.  

     Add up all of the visible, known factors in the wheat price right now, and then subtract all of the familiar fundamental negatives, it leaves only one thing responsible for the resilient, even buoyant prices of the last 26 trading sessions since October 14th; willing buyers such as Mexico, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the recently returned Chinese.

     Also, obscured by the absence of official data from the CFTC via the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, the large speculative category of traders (The “Funds”) have been vigorously covering their long-held short-sold positions. The money entities had been holding historically large shorts for many months and are now taking profits by buying back. It is also entirely plausible that there are various international futures traders buying wheat contracts as they perceive the potential for longer-term price increases on anticipated Chinese buying.  

     Some of these factors are ephemeral and fickle (the funds) and some are merely opportunistic. All but the importers are short-term in nature, and even the hungry foreign buyers have limits of what they will pay, but together they have been enough to lift wheat 55 cents in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW), 67 cents in Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) and 33 cents in Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS). Even Paris Milling wheat futures have felt the power with a €10.00/metric tonne ($.32 per bushel) jump. We are seeing wheat price levels not traded since last July to mid-August.

     Where to from here? Unless something new shows up on the screen soon, this market  may begin to decelerate. The KC HRW market has achieved a 23.6% retracement upward toward the highs of mid-June, a known Fibonacci ratio, and broken above its own classic down-sloped trendline. Chicago SRW and Minneapolis HRS have both touched the same ratio. The next target is 38.2% in Chicago, about 22 cents above Tuesday early trade levels.

     The potential downside is expressed at $5.07 (-38 cents) in the Dec and $5.24 (-35 cents) in the March SRW contract from today.

     The Chinese have no reason to buy soybeans aggressively at the moment, with an already full delivery schedule full of Brazilian beans and a moderately full domestic wheat storage capacity. If they intend to buy wheat it will likely be back-end loaded in the time frame given in the “negotiated-but-not signed” contract. It seems unreasonable to expect big orders in the nearby from them. If we are to be dependent on China to rescue the market prices of beans and wheat, that is a thin reed upon which to lean. The real magic lies in the current strong buying in other, smaller destinations.

     The trend is still upwards for wheat. The Box-o-Rox indicator is still “Suspend incremental sales” and the exit price is now 16-17 cents below the early Tuesday AM price in Chicago SRW and rising.

     PNW white wheat is back to $6.00 coast bids, with eyes on Chicago.

     Steady as she goes, Cap’n! Avast, me hearties, keep eyes on the prize!

Market Bullets® Monday, November 17, 2025: Pre-Dawn

As the charts shift to March delivery futures prices as the lead contract, there is no change in Box-o-Rox “Suspend incremental sales” status. The December contract closed within ¼-cent of the indicator line on Friday, November 14. We will be looking at Monday’s trade in terms of the March.   

Paris Milling Wheat futures contracts are based on an 11% protein scale (dry method) and is a loose proxy for Black Sea wheat price movements. The December was up approximately 3 cents per bushel (€1.00 per metric tonne) for the week ended November 14, while Kansas City Dec futures were down 10¾ cents. As of Thursday, November 13, our charts now reflect the March delivery contract, which had been at an approximate carry of €4.25 per metric tonne (about $.13 per bushel higher than the expiring December).

In Friday’s World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA showed US ending stocks of wheat for 2025/26 up 57 million bushels from the September report to 901 million, versus a pre-report average trade guess of 867 million, just below the high end of the range. An unfriendly figure. All-wheat production was increased 58 million bushels to 1.985 billion, as expected. Usage/disappearance was unchanged.

Global ending stocks of wheat increased by 7.37 million metric tonnes, another price-unfriendly number at 271.43 million tonnes. The pre-report average guess was 266.3 million. World production estimate increased by 12.69 million metric tonnes to 828.89 million, with Argentina +2.5 million tonnes, Australia +1.50 million, Canada +1.0 million, E.U. +2.2, Russia +1.50 million and the U.S. +1.56. The only major exporter that did not see an increase was Ukraine at unchanged.

This was not a price positive report, but it was the inaccurate pre-report guesses that triggered an “adjustment” downward in price. The market has had the weekend to digest that issue. Monday’s trade close will tell whether Friday’s little meltdown was enough.

The technical pattern that has emerged over the last 16 trading sessions created a “head and shoulders” shape, one of the old-school patterns that have been reasonably reliable. Taking the pattern at face-value, the downside potential if the “neckline” at $5.34 fails, is $5.17 on the March Chicago charts, about 30 cents below Monday’s very early trade levels around $5.47. The warning tripwire price is Friday’s low at $5.39. According to Bulkowski’s “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”, the historical percentages of validation of this old pattern run around 60%-70% if that neckline fails, stronger than most of the long-established technical patterns. For us this would function as a warning only, as we are not speculative traders, right? The line has not failed yet. The trend is still upward.

Also early Monday, neither the corn or the soybeans have suffered additional price damage. Beans have actually gained back a significant amount of their Friday losses.

So we have to wait again…on Monday’s session settlements, to see if there is weakness among the ranks of the buyers.

Stay tuned, these are interesting trading days, and may reveal some of what we should expect into the new year.  

-Gary

PS The 105-day indicator of central tendency for NY Harbor Diesel is a flat line. The 22-day is a 45-degree upward line. A “return to the mean” represents a decline of $.14 per gallon from Monday morning trade levels.  Just sayin’.

Market Bullets® Friday, November 14, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Going into a whole salami of data on Friday, with catchup. The market is cautiously anticipating a net price-neutral WASDE at 9:00 AM Pacific Time/11:00 Central, and the global buyers are also anxious. There is a chance for price-negative wheat data based on increased crop production. It may take the whole weekend for digestion of the data. The export flash sales will resume (important for China watchers), but most of the quick data-dump about export sales will be old news. The fresh stuff will take a few more days/weeks(?) to be available. Who knows what adjustments will be made in the WASDE? Volatility is likely, so we will “Hide and Watch”. There is no reason to be trying to pull the trigger on any trades/sales until the dust clears.

     We will bring a wider commentary after the report.

     Stay tuned to this channel.  

Market Bullets® Thursday, November 13, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The trade’s pre-report guesses at the new wheat statistics to be released Friday by USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) are for U.S. all-wheat ending stocks at an average of 867 million bushels. The last World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE)1 report had that figure at 844 million bushels. Global wheat ending stocks are guessed at 266.3 million metric tonnes compared to 264 million tonnes. The accuracy of these pre-report ideas will play a role in the price action that follows the report Friday morning at 9:00 AM Pacific Standard Time / 11:00 Central. The two months that have passed since the last WASDE may have created some calibration errors that the market will have to absorb, so the trade is likely to be a little extra cautious heading into the end of the week.  

     Andre Sizov’s SovEcon market consultant firm has adjusted its estimate for Russia's 2025-26 wheat crop downward to 83.8 Million Metric Tonnes (3.079 billion bushels), down 4.55% from its previous 87.8 million tonnes., breaking a short streak of upward changes.

     Corn and soybean prices have both been a strong upward thrust since October 14th, and beans have accelerated upward since October 27th, reaching their highest since June of 2024. Corn is not as powerful, but given a massive crop this year is performing well. The anticipated Chinese market is a big part of this action.

     Algeria purchased approximately 160,000 metric tonnes of milling wheat on Tuesday for Dec-Feb arrival.

     Egypt has been actively buying wheat this week, with their most recent purchase at 500,000 metric tonnes for Dec-Jan arrival.

     PNW shipments of Soft White Wheat were 19% of the total export loadings for the period ending November 6.

     The International Grains Council’s most estimate of global wheat production for the 2025-26 crop- year stands at 827.5 million metric tonnes, a new high against the previous all-time high of 803.5 million tonnes in 2022/23. Consumption is also expected to be at an all-time high of 819.6 million metric tonnes, leaving the ending stocks number at 274.8 MT, 9.3 million tonnes lower than 2022/23 and only the 5th highest in the last decade. Cheap wheat sells more bushels. Strong consumption will lead to higher prices.

     Aussie wheat harvest is expanding, with some regions seeing a late start due to rains. No damage reported to date. Their crop is forecast to hit about 30.6 million tonnes, 10% smaller than last year.

     Argentina’s wheat harvest is past half done, with a projected crop at 23 million metric tonnes, near the all-time high of 2021/22.

     Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures were trading in early AM Thursday at the same levels as Wednesday morning, about 8 cents above the selling trigger price from the Box-o-Rox indicator on a closing basis, still in “suspend incremental sales” mode. Some whip-saw, erratic behavior is likely in the next few weeks with lower trade volume. The trend is still upward.     

Market Bullets® Wednesday, November 12, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     This wheat market is waiting…waiting for USDA to re-start their statistical service, hanging onto their seats waiting for China to buy dramatic amounts of wheat and soybeans and hanging on every word out of Russia/Ukraine (although that story has dropped to page 2), and waiting to see what will come of the unwinding of the government shutdown. There is nothing new on the newswires, and most of the substantial background markets, i.e. interest rates, diesel fuel, currencies and even gold and natural gas are all stable and liquid. This month’s wheat price trade is likely to be erratic.

     The annual Thanksgiving-Christmas lull is at hand. Volatility is bound to peek out of its den once in a while, but that crittur is apparently sleepy.

     The southern hemisphere is going to bring a serious amount of wheat to the market very soon. Milei in Argentina is more serious about exports of grain than any of the last 20 years worth of governments there. Australia has been working hard on their relationships among some of the best U.S. wheat customers.

     The large speculative trading funds are believed to have reduced their previously large net short-sold positions by a significant amount. We will not know the numbers until the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) re-starts their weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) reports. This price factor is a slow-moving   

     Reuters survey showing analysts looking for US wheat ending stocks at 867 million bushels, 23 million more than the last report in September showed. If the trade was able to assemble a decent guess and they are close to the USDA figure, the market will shrug and move on, but there may be some adjustments to the market calibration. So the market waits for Friday morning…

    The trend is still positive. Using Chicago December (soon to roll to March’26) as the bellwether, the current price in the early morning hours of Wednesday is trading around 8 cents above the exit price in the Box-o-Rox indicator.

     Stay tuned. It only takes a minute or three to check in.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, November 11, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Export Inspections for the week ending on November 6th: 290,513 metric tonnes (10.674 million bushels) of wheat shipped, 17.07% lower than last week and 17.91% below the same week last year. The trade had expected 300K-600K metric tonnes. Cumulative marketing-year-to-date loadings now total 12.115 million metric tonnes (445.19 million bushels), a 19.18% increase from last year.

     There is no given deadline for the decision of the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) with regard to the use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by President Trump to impose trade tariffs. There are expectations for an “expedited” decision, so there is a potential for a decision before the end of the calendar year, but it could be longer. For global markets including wheat, these circumstances create a major slowdown in unilateral tariff negotiations and potentially in compliance until there is an operational resolution from SCOTUS.

     Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) estimates Argentine wheat harvest is 11.6% complete. Estimates to date are for 808.5 million bushels, a potential record.     

     The wheat trend displayed in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) futures is positive, with early Tuesday morning trade within 2 cents of unchanged. The Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) futures contracts are showing the weakest of the three major U.S. exchange contracts, but were up 1-2 cents early Tuesday morning.

     USDA Farm Service Agency offices will be closed on Tuesday, November 11 in observance of Veteran’s Day. The grain markets are trading regular hours, but most banks, post offices, state and local government offices, schools and the Treasury bond market will be closed.

     The markets may be quieter without banks and government offices closed, and any new developments around tariffs are likely to be deferred for a while. The next few weeks may show considerably softer markets heading into the Thanksgiving-Christmas period.

     Stay tuned.   

Market Bullets® Monday, November 10, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The end of the “U.S. Government Shutdown” appears to be shortly at hand. Senate vote moved past filibuster. House next.

     Gold is rising this morning, up $76 in early trade Monday after $496 pullback from October 20 all-time highs at $4,398 per Troy ounce.

     There is upward pressure on anhydrous ammonia fertilizer as natural gas (about 60%-70% of the cost of production of ammonia) reaches it highest since last March.

     The Scoop: Nov 7, 2025: “In addition to their agribusiness investments, China has ramped up its public-funded research. Since 2008, China has outspent the U.S. in comparable public sector spending for agricultural research, and furthermore, since 2019, China has spent twice as much, or double, as the U.S.”

     USDA will release a fresh World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) report Friday morning, November 14th, 9:00 AM Pacific Standard Time (UTC -8), the first report since September 12th.   

     There is no reason to expect China to pay above-market prices for U.S. wheat post-agreement. The volume will still depend on U.S. origin wheat being offered competitively.

Origin  Destination Estimated Cost per Metric Tonne (Dry Bulk) *estimates subject to wide variation

Russia China ~$30–$50

US Pacific Northwest (PNW) China ~$40–$65

US Gulf China ~$55–$85

      Russia is likely to continue aggressive wheat export sales, affecting global wheat prices. This is a factor that is here to stay, but there are other long-term factors that allow U.S. Producers to thrive, and China is not the real answer to U.S. demand issues, there are other hungry, if smaller, places in the world that will buy wheat.  For a review of longer-term historical wheat prices and favorable factors for U.S. wheat sales, see Monthly and Annual charts.

      Wheat harvest in Argentina is estimated at 11.6% complete according to the Buenos Aires Gains exchange.

     Monday early morning wheat trade in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) and Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) December futures showing +7 cents. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) futures were up about 1 cent, while Paris Milling Wheat was about 1-2 cents USD equivalent.

     The charts show that there is resilience in wheat prices in spite of recent pullbacks. The trend remains upward until further developments emerge. The Box-o-Rox indicator line is about 15 cents below current trading.

     This stuff is trackable. Let’s track it!

Market Bullets® Friday, November 7, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     In Chicago wheat futures, volume of trade:

March 4: 249,080 contracts for +6½ cents, March 5: 176,510 contracts for +3¾ cents,

March 6: 110,860 contracts for -18¾ cents…there was no volume validation on the downside.

     The funds have been covering (buying back) short-sold positions for the last couple of weeks. The last few days shown above illustrate what happens when the funds don’t show up with their buying shoes on. The volume drops as the air goes out of the price. This market has a weak mandate without the short-covering activities of the funds, which are much less trackable without the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The big traders obviously made decisions to exit a big proportion of their previously large net short-sold positions. We will not learn exactly how much until the COT reports are resumed. The “open interest” in Chicago has also dropped about 35,000 contracts over the last 9 trading sessions ending on Thursday, implying traders have been exiting positions. (bearing in mind that every buyer has a seller on the other side of each contract). Some of the buying fuel that had been underlying the market structure for many months is spent. From here we will need to see other influences on the buy side in this skeptical-toned market in order to maintain an upward slope.

     There is a noticeable phenomenon in the cash wheat origination business. When the market rises without interruption for a couple of weeks (not altogether unusual), the cash market dries up as wheat owners begin to anticipate higher prices. Once this pattern is established in the market, which is a wily crittur with a thousand eyes and two thousand ears, the price suddenly drops enough to get the attention of the trade (like Thursday), causing a surge in cash movement, as wheat sales that had been planned but not executed are released so as to capture what is left of the recent rally.

     This pattern happens fairly often, and it works to stimulate cash sales. Is the market setting a trap? Is the hunter now the prey? May it be that this scenario is due to a form of sentience in the “mind” of the market? The market exists on the concept of wheat movement to its end-use, with distribution at the best price for both sides of the ledger, and it is such a natural, effective pattern…Let’s not allow the market to manipulate us. Stay on plan.

     China’s finance ministry has release notice that an additional 15% retaliatory tariff on U.S. wheat is lifted. Reuters reports that China has agreed to purchase two cargoes — one PNW soft white wheat and the other spring wheat, or a total 120,000 metric tonnes, its first US wheat buy since last October 2024. China also will be receiving a shipment of sorghum from the United States. There were some remarks that the prices paid for the wheat were above the market, so were deemed “political in nature”.

     We are 44 days from the winter solstice (shortest day of year) on Dec 21, 2025.

     The November World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) to be released on November 14th will be mostly focused on corn and soybean yields, although adjustments of crop totals and ending stocks will be featured. This will be the first WASDE since September.

     Diesel futures in NY Harbor have reached a high dating back to June 23, 2025.

     The pullback in wheat prices is related to normal market behavior following a rapid price rise over a two-week period heading into a weekend, but also due to some warning tremors with ground zero at the Supreme Court of the U.S. (SCOTUS). If the tariff regime, now fully installed in the global trade with many “deals” made or pending, a ruling against their current application by President Trump would deal a serious blow to any agreements. This is causing wheat and other grain sales to lag, as buyers await the court’s decision. This could be very disruptive to global U.S. trade credibility. The market will pause and watch.

     The wheat price trend is positive according to Box-o-Rox, which is in “suspend incremental sales” mode. The retracement has reached the 38.2% line and paused. We may have to wait until after the weekend to see what’s next.

     Stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Thursday, November 6, 2025: AM

The global wheat market is poised for a significant clash between economic forces and supply needs. Behind the stable futures prices lies a fundamental imbalance that's building pressure. For American farmers, this means tight margins, as current cash prices struggle against rising costs for the next planting season. This situation suggests the market's equilibrium is fragile and could shift with any major disruption.

Price Suppression Meets Input Inflation…

The key challenge for producers is the low Season-Average Farm Price (SAFP), forecasted by the USDA at $5.10 per bushel. This level erodes profitability on less productive land and contrasts sharply with the costs of essential inputs.

Here is a look at survival, by the numbers…

Diesel: Holding steady at about $3.92 per gallon, increasing expenses for field operations.

Urea & Phosphate: Critical for soil fertility—Nitrogen (Urea) above $862 per ton, and Phosphate (MAP) exceeding $1,225 per ton.

At these prices, planting for the next cycle may fall short of what's needed. The market isn't providing strong enough incentives for production, which could lead to future supply issues.

  Export demand is emitting muffled roars from beneath the surface of trade talk. While attention often turns to Black Sea supplies, demand for U.S. wheat is steadily growing, especially for high-quality varieties like Hard Red Winter (HRW).  To recap the pre-shutdown cliffhanger, U.S. export commitments stand at 12.7 million metric tons (MMT) through September—a solid 5-year high and up nearly 20% from last year. Buyers value the consistency and quality of U.S. grain and are securing supplies accordingly. This trend signals potential strength ahead. As lower-cost global supplies taper off, this demand could meet reduced availability, pushing up basis and futures prices.

  Be mindful of the looming specters of geopolitical developments and the potential of forecast models to identify a burning atmospheric fuse.  The market faces risks from both weather and geopolitics that aren't fully reflected in current prices. In the U.S. Plains, the Hard Red Winter wheat crop is under stress from dry conditions and uneven germination, making early development vulnerable. A continued drought into winter could heighten volatility in Spring contracts.

Internationally, the Black Sea region remains unpredictable. The current export corridor is functioning but vulnerable to political shifts, with potential Russian export taxes adding uncertainty to the supplies that have influenced global prices. These factors—domestic weather and international politics—could act as catalysts for price changes.

The Chicago futures spread offers insight into market expectations. The difference between the December '25 contract (around $5.50/bushel) and July '26 (about $5.81/bushel) provides a $0.31 per bushel carry. This premium indicates the market is encouraging storage, anticipating that current prices won't support adequate supply for the 2026 harvest. It points to expected tightening and higher prices after the near-term surplus clears. Strategic hedging using these deferred contracts remains a sensible approach.

  The story in wheat is heating up again.  Keep your your head on a swivel and a price chart where you can get a frequent peek at it.  You might be surprised how it gets easier to swallow if you can chew on it some here and there. As time goes by your understanding of the market gets deeper and you will know more than you think you know. Stay tuned.

-Gabriel

Market Bullets® Wednesday, November 5, 2025: Close

     For Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat December contracts it has been 16 trading sessions with a 61-cent price rise since the multi-year lows in mid-October. This is a very impressive change in wheat market behavior, as it blew past the 38% retracement line and is now approaching the second most familiar ratio target of 61% at about $5.69 (15 cents higher than Wednesday’s day-session close). The chances of it reaching this lofty goal without any back-filling or correction are not high, but there is some momentum. The most recent proportional move was achieved in May-June 2025, when it rose 87 cents from low to high.

      On the Monthly continuous chart for SRW, we have drawn trendlines in an arbitrary attempt to obliviate the market effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The very-subjective 9-year slope since August 2016 is positive and hanging at about $6.04 with a channel center around $7.04. That’s a rough range of between plus $.50 to $1.50 above Wednesday’s close! Wishful thinking? Bearing in mind that there is Always a higher price target, no matter how high a market gets, we will not fall into the classic trap of depending on higher targets for marketing plans. We will follow our best indicators, trying to be patient and not impulsive, selling only when the price declines below our calculated line (presently at      The temptation to sell early in an attempt to capture a quick high is very strong, but we would rather give back a small rise than abandon a defined positive market, with or without a big fundamental story as support.      

     The 2-year monthly trend channel is still an intact negative slope. In order to change that, Chicago will have to trade consistently above $6.00 for a few months. The timeline for this is at least a year or more.  

     To summarize that last rambling paragraph; the market has produced a new positive technical outlook right into the teeth of a fundamental surplus of wheat for sale. This is not that unusual, so we will respect the charts for now, but be prepared to catch up on sales, should the line break.

   Stay tuned. More later.

Market Bullets® Wednesday, November 5, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     If there had never been any “Trade War” with China and no negotiations about how many soybeans and other “Ag Products” they would buy, we would not have been given the object lesson that we have received: We are as dependent on selling beans and wheat (among other things) to the Chinese customers as they are on us buying their manufactured products (and rare earth metals). They could not easily fulfill all their human needs without U.S. origin soybeans, wheat and corn which is fine because our businesses need their crap.

     In the long run, if the economics make it possible, China will buy our wheat, etc. with or without agreements, but in the short run, the negotiations have smoothed the way toward more reliable demand expectations, making decisions easier for producers.

     Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a recent interview that the U.S. trade reps are working directly and specifically on wheat buying specifications along with corn, sorghum, etc., with announcements of details due shortly. She is also emphasizing improvement of USDA data quality, essentially restoring NASS, ERS and FAS to full staffing. Have a look at the interview with Joe Vaclavik/Mackenzie Johnston. It’s worth the time.     

     Wednesday morning’s early trade in Chicago had the December delivery contract trading quietly, down just ½-cent at $5.49¾. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) was at $5.36, also down less than a cent. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) showed negative ¾-cent and Paris was indicating minus 1-2 cents equivalent. The trendline is positive, but the market seems to be running out of momentum, needing another bit of friendly news, which could be anything, as in real numbers out of China, a budget resolution out of Washington, D.C. or even a drop in any given wheat production input price(s).

     Export Inspections, below expectations, still respectable (that just Rolls off the tongue!). The total was 350,293 metric tonnes (12.871 million bushels, of which Soft white wheat accounted for 18% on the week ended October 30.   

      Russian market consultant SovEcon is expecting the country to produce one of the largest wheat crops on record for its 2025-26 season, with a new projection of 3.23 billion bushels. Andre Sizov at SovEcon deploys satellite imagery, weather analysis and field reports to generate these estimates.

     Some analysts say that Kazakhstan (not a Russian property) wheat exports may reach a record high over 9 million tonnes in the 2025/26 crop year, though recent forecasts have indicated reductions due to competition.  In 2023, Kazakhstan was the 11th largest wheat exporter globally, with major export destinations including Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Italy.  

      It is natural for a market that has broken out of a long term pattern to hesitate at important technical points, i.e. major retracement targets. Chicago is trading between 38% and 61% recovery of the entire down move from last June, a broad target. A pullback is not unexpected. As long as we are above the Box-o-Rox green line, we will continue to hold back on sales unless the market fails to confirm with a new, higher low. I’d rather give back half of the recent rally than miss the next 50 cents up. The trend is positive, with lots of work to do in construction of a base from which to launch a longer-term price rise. It will take time.

     Stay tuned.  

Market Bullets® Tuesday, November 4, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     In the last 72 hours of trade, a fairly heavy volume of activity has allowed an adjustment of a market that had become “oversold”, that is the incentive to buy more than absolutely necessary had declined below balanced market levels. The extended sideways price pattern in wheat produced occasional tests of the lows of an approximately 50 cent high/low range, but few tests of the highs.

      Wheat prices have now moved upward from that low side to a high point not traded since July 2025, 55 cents above the October multi-year lows. From this point the next upside technical target centers on about $5.69 for the December contract ($5.87 in the March). Both targets are based on traditional ratio retracement calculations of the entire downward price move since the mid-June peak at $6.16.  

      From here it will become mandatory that the market sees good fundamental reasons to continue to buy. The current problem for us to solve is how fundamentals are measured without USDA’s massive, regular data flows to the market.

      Soybeans have been the headline story, based on reported results of negotiations with China, but all grains had been holding back on significant position changes as the world waited on political decisions. We are still waiting for confirmation of the Chinese interpretation of the reported agreements. Most of the details onto which the market has pounced have come from the U.S. trade representatives (Bessent, Trump, et al.) and not from the Chinese side. One example of how important this can be is the 12 million metric tonne soybean/calendar year deal. China bought just under 6 million tonnes of beans last spring. If they see the deal as a calendar year basis, that could reduce the anticipated 12 million tonnes by about half. Is it “new business” or “all annual business”?

     Onto this need to confirm we add a government funding hiatus that creates an info vacuum. The buying energy that is required to move the price of wheat to its next higher level will have to come from actual buying evidence going forward, including not just China, but also other global wheat buyers as they recognize that the market has finally changed macro direction. For this to be a widely accepted, timely buying stimulus we need a resolution of the funding of government data operations.

     It has been so long since we have experienced a positive wheat price environment that it has created a euphoric attitude, tinged by fear of seeing it all collapse as it has so often over the last three years. The long-term weekly charts show that we have not yet cracked the dominant downward channel, but every new major uptrend has to start somewhere, one week at a time. Chicago has to reach above $6.00 to bust loose from the grip of the bear. This may take some time. Meanwhile we will continue to be opportunistic if possible, using every tool at our disposal to optimize sales. There has never been a time where a good marketing sales execution plan has been more valuable.

       Monday’s Export Inspections report showed 350,293 metric tonnes (12.871 million bushels) of wheat shipped in the week of October 30th, 30.02% above the previous week. The marketing year total is now 11.825 million tonnes of wheat shipped, 20.51% above the same period last year.

     Stay tuned here. The charts will show all.

Market Bullets® Monday, November 3, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The hand of the market writes and having writ moves on. [1] At some point we have to decide whether to set aside the idea of a continued long-term downward trend. The challenge of trading “with” the trend is that trends always eventually change direction. We are left with the task of identifying that change in a way that allows us to adjust our plans, which depend for success on harnessing the power of any established trend to our objectives.

     There is no magical, blood-certain spell, formula or trading system that yields a certainty of buy/sell decision directives beyond where the price is relative to recent prices, but there are patterns that provide ways to measure momentum and directional bias.

     Given a defined time frame, there are three (3) definitions; upward-trend, downward-trend and no-trend. Wheat producers are inherently long (owners of) wheat, which simplifies the question down to, “When do we sell?” The on-going objective is to hold as long as it is economically feasible to do so in an up-trending market, and to be at least more aggressive, accelerating sales in a downward trending market. In a no-trend market, the timing of sales is more dependent on cash flow needs, but in the absence of cash needs, there are always the slow-bleed costs of storage and interest.  

     We are seeing a new uptrend now, with early trade Monday morning, November 3, 2025 showing Chicago up 7-9 cents, KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) up 6-7 and Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) up 2-3 cents. Paris milling wheat futures were indicating plus 2-3 cents.

     The tone-change is directly correlated with the U.S./China verbal agreements struck last week, although the headlines have been completely dominated by soybean trade, there is no ag market that has not taken a breath of relief.

     The technical pattern for wheat (using Chicago as a benchmark) is now a breakout above previous $5.35 highs in late August and mid-September. Monday morning’s best numbers achieved a 38.2% retracement ratio of the entire downward move from June 2025 highs, a minimum Fibonacci number and a potential slowing point in the now 15-trading-day-old, 50-cent move up from the June 14 multi-year lows. The Box-o-Rox (BoR) indicator is now 19½ cents below the current trade if the current price is sustained at the close on Monday.

     The global wheat fundamentals that have been so gloomy are still the same, although there are bound to be some adjustments to the balance sheets when USDA’s data scientists get back to work on November 14th with a new World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates report. Meanwhile, word on the street is that China has been soliciting offers for shipments of U.S. wheat in December to February. This may be one of those, “buy the rumor, sell the fact” deals, but it is healthy for our improving export sales tally in any case.

     Stay tuned, volatility is bound to increase in the next few weeks.    

-Gary     

PS:   The U.S. Dollar Index ended October up 2.15% for the month, at its highest weekly close since May 16, 2025, 5+ months ago.

[1] Adapted from the “Rubáiyát of Omar Khayyam”

Market Bullets® Friday, October 31, 2025: AM

     The air is slowly seeping out of the wheat price after Thursday’s brief meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. It’s not that the market is disappointed, although the pre-meeting hype had been getting a bit thick. The results were not negative, we just were looking for a little more clarity. Now the expectations for Chinese ag purchases of soybeans and wheat will require some time to be fulfilled, and fentanyl precursor shipments from China and other Asian sources may be curtailed, but the big fish was rare earth metals and mutual tariff relief.

     Without USDA data, the market is running on autopilot, private anecdotes, and authoritative statements by private trade sources. This has the effect of fog on ships and planes; it slows everything down. The market can’t see Chinese purchases on the screen in near real time, so we make do with rumors.

     There is next to nothing on the wire services providing directional power, so the market will go back to grinding sideways.

     It is month-end, so there is some profit-taking by early buyers in the recent rally. After the weekend we will pick up where we left off by first measuring the retracement depth of the current pullback. The renewed testing of the long-term lows is underway once again.  

      The Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) December futures contract will attempt to close below the Box-o-Rox indicator line (the solid green line on our Daily chart) which would turn the status back to “Execute planned incremental sales”. Our default calendar date for each month’s sales is the 1st, so November may act as if no rally ever took place.

     The trend status is still positive until that “below the line” closing price is printed.

     Stay tuned. A new chapter is beginning, and there are factors to watch.   

“There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture…You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to…the Outer Limits.”

-Gary

Market Bullets® Tuesday, October 28, 2025: AM

     Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) is the “weak sister” among the major U.S. wheat markets. The recent upswing in price for the complex has found only HRS still below its Box-o-Rox (60-session) moving average. The main drivers of this lag are the large crop that ultimately was harvested in the U.S. this year, and aggressively priced, higher-than-normal protein wheat coming out of Russia. The Price differential is not extreme, with inter-market spreads near normal.

     The overall tone of the market has transformed to a much better frequency, as we have waited for a long time for a better-looking price in wheat. The only problem here is that the drivers of this rally are subject to revision. Unlike most of the other fundamental factors that move wheat prices, political movements are more fickle and can metamorphose into unexpected forms very quickly. It is good to have at least something like this to keep the market honest.

     Doing without USDA reveals that the market can function on private data, state reports and extrapolated guesses, but we will need to calibrate all of these sources when the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS), Economic Research Service (ERS) and Foreign Ag Service all get back on line, not to mention the Farm Service Agency (FSA) coming back to full strength. These agencies and their good personnel serve to keep the markets straight and transparent, a thing not fully appreciated that should be.

     “Sources” are saying that we have reached the “crop stat shrinkage” stage of the corn and soybean crops. It  is the inevitable, normal process of pulling back on optimistic estimates of yield and weights after the halfway point of harvest. Anecdotal notes say the corn crop may not be as large as expected (Just another factor that helps the wheat along toward a corrective price retracement that was overdue).

     We seem to have priced in some aggressive purchases by China before the fact, leaving us just a tad vulnerable to “corrective” movements when real numbers are ultimately revealed.

     The technical trend in wheat is upward. It is appropriate to hold still on sales for a time, but it is also a good idea to bear in mind the probable volatility that will emerge soon. We will set our chart lines and stay with them until we are forced off.

     Stay tuned, there are twists and turns ahead, and we have politicians driving the bus.     

Market Bullets® Monday, October 27, 2025: Close

     The wheat complex has shifted toward a positive slope. It will require some time for the trade to adjust to such a new attitude, doubt which will likely be reflected in a series of tests and consolidative moves. It is by no means a definitive chart-move. Big, old dinosaur trends do not expire quietly. A few upward days do not constitute a confirmed trend change. Even a twitch of the tail of the huge old beast is enough to crush unwary natives. There is usually a small avalanche of cash wheat released into the channel when long-term downtrends begin to die, as producers that had reached the “Fed-up” stage of frustration with low prices had been sitting rather uncomfortably on wheat as bills stacked up. Now they heave a sigh of relief and let go of some wheat (but only “some” – there is yet far to go).  

     All of that is said to set the tone for our now “Positive” tilt in the Box-o-Rox indicator. From this point the BoR program will suspend new incremental sale of wheat until the daily price closes once again below the moving green line, even as the planned schedule for sales continues to accumulate suspended sales on the table until that day, at which we will catch up, bringing sales up to date. It is named Box-o-Rox because it is “dumber than a box of rocks” – the most basic of approaches, but in the same fundamental way, it is as effective as a hammer on a nail…no nonsense. Our job is to bring perspective to the chart, and not the other way ‘round. So that is ‘nuff said for the moment.

     The volume of trade was high on Monday, to be expected. Now it remains for President Trump to bring out some results, and maybe we will see other kinds of momentum gains soon (like maybe a re-opening of the U.S. Government). We feel that it’s good to have the power off once in a while. It brings perspective.

     WHEAT Inspections for export loading for the week of October 23, 2025: 258,543 metric tonnes, 52% of the total for the previous week of 493,487 tonnes and below traded expectations. A year ago, same week it was 294,657. Year-to-date total shipments stand at 11,463,969 metric tonnes, a 19.5% ahead of last year’s pace. A quiet week, but still with a good lead over last year.

     Soft White Wheat inspections of 58,020 metric tonnes constituted 22.4% of the total U.S. wheat export loadings for the week ended Oct 23.

     It is raining in most of the U.S. red winter wheat country, even as our cousins in the western Hard Red Winter (HRW) states from central Oklahoma to the west and southward are still short on moisture (but they are used to this condition and seem to grow wheat anyways).

     It appears that the trade believes that another ¼-point cut in short-term interest rates is a slam dunk when the Fed meets this week on the 28th-29th.

     Even though the soybeans are dominating the spotlight now, there is still talk of Chinese interest in U.S. origin wheat. All of the hopes of the market are now in the balance cup… Any false moves and the wheat market gets it, see! We will be paying close attention.

     Standby for a crazy market period. Let’s not get blind-sided. Stay tuned.      

Copper is apparently back on the march toward new highs.

Diesel is moving higher.

The Russian Ruble is gaining strength, versus both the Yuan and the USD. 

The U.S. Dollar Index is up month-to-date only +1.19%, for a net -5.46% in the 7 months back to April Fool’s Day.

-Gary   

Market Bullets® Monday, October 27, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     If the Chicago December futures contract settles Monday at the price at which it was trading 2:30 AM Monday morning, it will have topped our Box-o-Rox Marketing indicator and switched the forward mode to “Suspend incremental sales”, as it begins to define an uptrend. From that point forward we will hold contract sales until it drops back below that same (moving) line on a closing basis. See the “Box-o-Rox” chart page for more information.

     Chicago, our wheat bellwether market, is trading roughly 30 cents above its long-term low printed on October 14th, 10 trading session ago. So far, this is the strongest upward move since the first week in July 2025.

     We will not have CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) data anytime very soon, but the widely followed “Large Speculative” trading entities, otherwise known as “The Funds”, are generally responsive to such strong moves, either to cover (buy back) previously sold positions, or even to begin to accumulate net long-bought positions. The ”Commercials” or firms engaged in handling and processing physical wheat will be the large sellers, as a price increase would shake cash wheat sales loose from the country origins, requiring hedging as they are purchased into inventory.   

     There is street-talk that the Chinese are already sniffing about for wheat offerings in the U.S. market. The (negative) volatility in grain prices will likely increase dramatically if the pending Chinese/U.S. trade talks fail to produce short-term results. There is quite a bit of political pressure on President Trump to produce something good. We are at an inflection point in this year’s wheat price movement. If triggered, the long-awaited “short-squeeze” would only be the start of a larger buying movement among end-users and other market participants. If the talks fail, new lows are definitely possible. This next few days/weeks will require close observation.     

     Australia: Harvest is accelerating in north-eastern wheat production areas. No-one is happy with current prices. Buyers are relying on expectations for prices to sag lower as harvest advances, and sellers are facing higher break-even costs of production in wheat. Trade volume is quiet. Canola is hot.

     We have spent months beating on the cheap Russian wheat, absence of Chinese buying, and relatively healthy crops being harvested or anticipated. The wheat market has declined to long-term lows and camped there for a year (or more, depending how we measure it, with or without inflation). The base has been built for a retracement proportional to the down move. Depending on how we measure, the first tentative upward chart targets are from $5.80 to $6.30, $.50 to $1.00 higher in Chicago December contracts, or possibly higher in March or May. The other major wheat markets have similar goals. There are other, more distant objectives, but for now, we will try not to raise the heart rate up to high, as that is not good for good, hard-headed marketing decisions.

     For now, none of this coffee-talk is really on the table until we have confirmation of a change in market tone and energy. The first rally from such long-term lows is rarely free of serious testing and verification over a much longer period than we like to have to face (also in proportion to the massive downward move).

     This perspective is just to wake us up a bit to prepare for volatile and “interesting” markets.

     Stay tuned up, turned on and locked in! There is more to come.

Market Bullets® Friday, October 24, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Reuters, that persistent communicator, has produced a survey that says the U.S. winter wheat crop is about 75% planted. Our hunch says that is about right. There is significant moisture coming to a wide section of the southern Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat belt, but it mostly misses the chronically dry southwestern zone.

  China’s wheat crop is late getting in the ground due to excessive moisture. Although this can be a problem, history says moisture is a better problem than drought. If the Chinese wheat crop going in for next year’s harvest is smaller, leading to more import needs, they will buy according to symbolic political values, but in the end, they are a practical people who understand what a food shortage is, so they will fill the bins according to price.

  The world needs a certain amount of wheat to fill bellies. There is a defined amount of wheat available for sale for this purpose. The market will determine what the price must be to allocate the stuff to its final destination, including the cost of transportation from origin. In the end, the buyer must pay what price the market presents at his location to acquire what he needs, and the political factor is relatively small.

      Hopes are high that “talks” will trigger some Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans, which could help trigger an extension of the current wheat price rally, but if this does not materialize, the market is likely to express disappointment by deflating the infant uptrend back into the familiar pattern of bottom-scraping. If we see a price runup in wheat in spite of delays in trade resolutions, that would be the strongest indicator of things to come. For now, we hide and watch.  

Repeating from Monday night: Pre-report estimates of U.S. wheat sales for the week ended October 16 ranged from 350,000 to 650,000 metric tonnes (12.86 million to 23.88 million bushels), according to a Reuters survey (doing without USDA data). As for the still-active inspections report, loadings were reported at 480,614, million tonnes. The total marketing-year-to-date stands at 11.19 million tonnes, above last-year-same-week’s 9.3 million tonnes. No new price effect, but sustaining the positive pace.

      PNW Soft White Wheat (SWW) provided 5.26% of the week’s total export shipments.

   The International Grains Council yesterday raised their 2025/26 world wheat production estimate by eight million tonnes, to 827 MMT, putting ending stocks at 275 million tonnes, up 5 million, a +1.8% change.

  Early trade on Monday morning had Chicago unch at $5.13 (20¾ cents above the LOC low from October 14th.  KC HRW, up ½-cent at $5.01, was 23¾-cents above its own Oct 14 LOC low. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) futures were 10¾ above the lows of October 21-22. Paris Milling Wheat indications were for unch to up 1 cent per bushel equivalent quote. The wheat complex is not backing off heading into Friday.

     Watching gold:

      If the bankers are counting gold, and its price is reaching beyond itself, there is wheat.

     Wheat is a form of gold, with one major difference being that it is always consumed instead of merely accumulating. It is fungible, a trade good and can be used as money.    

It always has some value and sometimes even more than gold in that it can be eaten (times when people will give you all their gold in exchange for wheat). It has been present for many millennia in human history as a factor of security, and great nations have been both built upon it and collapsed for lack of it. The gift of it becomes the “bread of life”. In times of fear, when scarcity seems to rule the world, it represents abundance.

     Eventually, the market remembers what wheat is and begins to value it according to the time. That time of recognition has been and is always near, in the turn of the great wheel. If there were no cycle of abundance and scarcity, many generations, large and small, would go without the lesson; Do not disregard the value of small things, as in a kernel of wheat, for this is the gift of a world in your hand and mouth.    

     Stay tuned. The wheel turns.

Market Bullets® Friday, October 24, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Reuters, that persistent communicator, has produced a survey that says the U.S. winter wheat crop is about 75% planted. Our hunch says that is about right. There is significant moisture coming to a wide section of the southern Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat belt, but it mostly misses the chronically dry southwestern zone.

  China’s wheat crop is late getting in the ground due to excessive moisture. Although this can be a problem, history says moisture is a better problem than drought. If the Chinese wheat crop going in for next year’s harvest is smaller, leading to more import needs, they will buy according to symbolic political values, but in the end, they are a practical people who understand what a food shortage is, so they will fill the bins according to price.

  The world needs a certain amount of wheat to fill bellies. There is a defined amount of wheat available for sale for this purpose. The market will determine what the price must be to allocate the stuff to its final destination, including the cost of transportation from origin. In the end, the buyer must pay what price the market presents at his location to acquire what he needs, and the political factor is relatively small.

      Hopes are high that “talks” will trigger some Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans, which could help trigger an extension of the current wheat price rally, but if this does not materialize, the market is likely to express disappointment by deflating the infant uptrend back into the familiar pattern of bottom-scraping. If we see a price runup in wheat in spite of delays in trade resolutions, that would be the strongest indicator of things to come. For now, we hide and watch.  

Repeating from Monday night: Pre-report estimates of U.S. wheat sales for the week ended October 16 ranged from 350,000 to 650,000 metric tonnes (12.86 million to 23.88 million bushels), according to a Reuters survey (doing without USDA data). As for the still-active inspections report, loadings were reported at 480,614, million tonnes. The total marketing-year-to-date stands at 11.19 million tonnes, above last-year-same-week’s 9.3 million tonnes. No new price effect, but sustaining the positive pace.

      PNW Soft White Wheat (SWW) provided 5.26% of the week’s total export shipments.

   The International Grains Council yesterday raised their 2025/26 world wheat production estimate by eight million tonnes, to 827 MMT, putting ending stocks at 275 million tonnes, up 5 million, a +1.8% change.

  Early trade on Monday morning had Chicago unch at $5.13 (20¾ cents above the LOC low from October 14th.  KC HRW, up ½-cent at $5.01, was 23¾-cents above its own Oct 14 LOC low. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) futures were 10¾ above the lows of October 21-22. Paris Milling Wheat indications were for unch to up 1 cent per bushel equivalent quote. The wheat complex is not backing off heading into Friday.

     Watching gold:

      If the bankers are counting gold, and its price is reaching beyond itself, there is wheat.

     Wheat is a form of gold, with one major difference being that it is always consumed instead of merely accumulating. It is fungible, a trade good and can be used as money.    

It always has some value and sometimes even more than gold in that it can be eaten (times when people will give you all their gold in exchange for wheat). It has been present for many millennia in human history as a factor of security, and great nations have been both built upon it and collapsed for lack of it. The gift of it becomes the “bread of life”. In times of fear, when scarcity seems to rule the world, it represents abundance.

     Eventually, the market remembers what wheat is and begins to value it according to the time. That time of recognition has been and is always near, in the turn of the great wheel. If there were no cycle of abundance and scarcity, many generations, large and small, would go without the lesson; Do not disregard the value of small things, as in a kernel of wheat, for this is the gift of a world in your hand and mouth.    

     Stay tuned. The wheel turns.

Market Bullets® Thursday, October 23, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     U.S. Secretary of Ag Brooke Rollins has announced that FSA offices will re-open on Thursday to resume “core” operations. “President Trump is committed to supporting America’s farmers and ranchers, and this action will release over $3 billion in assistance for farmers…”

     FSA county offices will be staffed by two (2) full-time employees. Key services: Farm loan processing, ARC/PLC payments, and other programs funded by the Commodity Credit Corporation will resume. Funding: The reopening is supported by a release of $3 billion in funding from the Commodity Credit Corporation.

    Trade volume in wheat futures has continued to decline each day, reaching levels in the bottom quartile of daily volume records back through 2024. This is evidence of a lack of conviction or necessity among various trader groups, including large speculative and commercial entities.  It also has the effect of eroding option prices. Calls are getting cheap.

     Global Sentiment: European and Black Sea markets echo the U.S. tone—cautious, thin, and waiting. No major weather threats or logistical disruptions are in play. Russia continues to be the low-price setter.

     It has been under-played in the wires, but Russia has faced significant and widespread sub-optimal wheat planting conditions in October 2025, mostly on drought in the same areas that were dry a year ago. Analysts reported record levels of winter wheat planted in poor condition, which created a high risk of winterkill and resulted in reduced planted areas. This condition last year gave rise to expectations of a reduced overall Russian crop last spring, but with higher-than-normal yields in other wheat production areas the overall numbers did not drop enough to affect global pricing, hence the lack of enthusiasm in recent reports.

     Hard Red Spring (HRS) futures continue to show the weakest performance of the major exchanges with new Life-of-Contract (LoC) lows on October 21, while the Chicago and KC markets have avoided printing new lows.    

      Diesel is on a roll upward, hitting some short-term highs dating back to September 30th, some 33 cents above the lows of October 17th. The Diesel market was reacting to the immediate bullish news of the new sanctions on Russian fuel movement, but there are questions about the longer-term expectations of a supply surplus in 2026.

     Algeria has issued an international tender to purchase 1.8 million bushels (50,000 metric tonnes) of soft wheat from optional origins that closes on Thursday.

     The pressure on the politicians is rising with the announcement that USDA’s SNAP benefits (Food Stamps) will not be issued in November. Sounds like brinkmanship.

     The wheat price pattern continues flat-to-negative, but the news is getting a bit frothy, with lots of talk about peace in the Middle East (IF Hamas lays down their arms), and “pending” talks with China. A short-covering rally could happen on any given headline…call it a “mousetrap market”, not big stuff, but touchy.

     Stay tuned.   

Market Bullets® Wednesday, October 22, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Overall volume of trade in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) on Tuesday was a light 43,861 contracts, on a minus-4¼ cent day (No mandate). Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) has the weakest pattern among the 3 major U.S. exchanges and printed yet another new Life-of-Contract (LoC) low on Tuesday, the 4th day in a row of such. KC is acting like Chicago. All of this micro-measuring of price changes is not very educational.

      If talks with China are concluded without any gains in ag trade position, the disappointment is likely to be a strong negative price factor until there is any other positive in the market.

     The Factor list in the market has not changed substantially, but goes about as follows;

     Various Russian wheat production estimates (IKAR and SovEcon are 83-88 million metric tonnes for this year’s harvest, down from the previous year's 91.5 million tonnes.

     U.S. wheat export inspections for the week ending Oct 16 were reported at 480,614 metric tonnes (17.659 million bushels)  up 7.4% from the previous week and up 78% from the same week last year. Wheat shipments now total 411.2 million bushels, 20% ahead of the same time last year, a 12-year high representing nearly 44% of USDA’s previous full-year export projection at 900 million bushels from the last WASDE report on October 9th.

     With the guv’mint funding delays, the next World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) may not come on time (November 10th).

     The North China Plain has had heavy rains, making fields too wet for wheat planting. Beijing has ordered dry weather and rapid seeding to help.

     Australia and Argentina are both projecting heavy wheat harvests. Argentina is preparing for an aggressive wheat sales campaign once the crop is in.

     Global wheat importers are operating hand-to-mouth buying patterns…With “ample” supplies available, the buyers are relaxed and picky.

     Wheat’s historically normal seasonal lows are due in the August-November window.  

     Our “Box-o-Rox” indicator remains firmly in "Execute planned incremental sales" mode with elevated monitoring for potential breakdown below recent long-term lows. Minneapolis HRS is already working on a breakdown with its last four consecutive Life-of- Contract (LoC) lows in the December delivery contract.

     …Not one new item! The trend remains flat to negative, but there are potential price-positive factors lurking just out of radar range. Meanwhile…

     Stay tuned, we will be watching the charts and continuing to construct background details, some fanciful and some practical.  

Market Bullets® Tuesday, October 21, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Yesterday we posted that the behavior of the Chinese is not necessarily what it appears to be in the raucous political arena today. Here is another puzzle piece that helps us here on the ground to perceive what is moving on the global chess board:

     It is estimated that the expanded membership of BRICS (BRICS+) represents nearly half of the world's population, accounting for over one-third of the global GDP by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), a larger proportion than the G7.

      Expansion of membership has given the BRICS+ organization potential leverage over global markets. When including Iran, the UAE, and potentially Saudi Arabia, BRICS could control nearly half of global oil production, along with dominant positions in global natural gas and coal reserves. BRICS+ nations are responsible for 45% of global agricultural products, including major shares of the world's wheat, rice, and soybeans.

     At this point, the nascent organizational success of BRICS+ depends on mutual cooperation and willingness to be less sovereign and more collective, to subordinate some ambitions and accept others, an objective that will test even true leadership. It remains far from a fait accompli that the group will achieve their goals, but the existence of the organization requires us as marketing students to study their movements and effects on the current order of global establishment. Much more on this later.

     Meanwhile, Russia’s shipments of wheat reached 7.1 million metric tonnes through September, 18% below last year’s 8.7 million. They are fighting the same problem as everyone with wheat for sale; slow buyers, difficult harvests and lots of wheat for sale from every corner of the earth.

In response to the lag in sales, Russia is significantly lowering export duties on wheat for a week beginning on October 22, a seasonal clearance sale designed to stimulate sleepy buyers.

     Big importers still have some idea that diversified sources are good, so they remain wary of too-large commitments from any single point of origin, even as they procrastinate purchasing deferred deliveries, as they see no reason to rush. The buy side of the equation is expanding consumption on the good prices (This is where the advisors to the buyers begin to nag about buying ahead, but are mostly ignored).

     This is a setup for a rally, but we have to wait patiently. The problem is that it may not be gradual in the beginning. For producers, after a quick surge of sales that had already been on the table, a sudden rally should be enough to trigger notice to slow or even halt scheduled sales. The fundamentals have not changed. We will watch the Box-o-Rox indicator and weekly charts for notable changes in pattern. Meanwhile, it has been proven in the past that it is unhealthy to anticipate a market change before it is accomplished. Stay on plan,

Keep making scheduled incremental sales. Assemble strategies that allow adjustment to a different market, but do not execute them until you see the whites of their eyes.

     Stay tuned. We live in interesting times.

Market Bullets® Monday, October 20, 2025: Pre-Dawn

• Paris 11% Milling Wheat weekly chart hugs multi-year lows, no breakout.

• Box-o-Rox Wheat Marketing Indicator is 19 cents below a positive flip to “Suspend new incremental sales” status.

• Minneapolis is the weakest of the three major U.S. wheat futures contracts, new lows each of the last 4 sessions, while Hard Red  Winter (HRW) in Kansas City has been grinding upward a dime and Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) has gained 10-12 cents.

• Pakistan is putting government programs in place to protect wheat production levels, including direct price supports.

• China’s world imports of grains from January to September 2025: Corn -93%, sorghum -46%, Barley -34%, Wheat -72% (It’s not just us).

• Australian port terminal strikes have halted wheat export shipments.

• Gold is trading quietly $122 below last Friday morning’s all-time high.

Some speculative thinking (Not validated, just a consideration); Maybe China’s wheat and other grains import reductions are in fact not totally politically motivated, but more of a strategic consideration of previous surplus storage levels, partly driven by a cultural memory of starvation. If this was supported by long-term commitments by Russia to provide a defined level of wheat supplies, it would suggest that the destinations of first priority for Russian wheat would be the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and the recently included Egypt, Iran, UAR, Ethiopia and Indonesia), perhaps on a currency settlement basis outside of the U.S. Dollar.

The above arrangement could significantly shift the flows of global wheat trade. The pattern would be likely repeated for energy and other traded goods.

This is likely to have been a long-term and less-than-likely to become a fact soon, but deserves consideration. This has little to do with current wheat marketing issues, but is an intriguing perspective as we attempt to assemble the global wheat trade puzzle.

Thought for food!

The five-day trend is grinding higher but has not changed the overall channel. Technically it would be a much stronger reversal pattern if it tested the recent lows and held above them before rising significantly.

Stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Friday, October 17, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Diesel futures prices are down to where they were last June, about -$.30 per gallon in 40,000 gallon lots delivered to NY Harbor. The futures are tied to retail prices by a long and winding road with tax/fee hurdles, but they do have an effect.   

     By 3:30 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7) Wheat prices in Chicago were trading inside of a 3 cent range, at plus 2 cents. KC even narrower and plus 1½-cents. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring futures were up a penny and Paris was indicating up 2 to down 1. The day-traders and scalpers are going to starve to death if this keeps up!

     Good yields have a downside this year – driving prices lower. U.S. national winter wheat yields averaged 53.7 bushels per acre, a bit higher than last year’s and the 5-year average of 52.2.

     If you are feeling the squeeze, you are not alone. There are virtually no wheat producers anywhere in the world that are not facing skinny times. Argentina eyes a record 23 million tonnes of wheat coming in and a wobbly government (Although President Javier Melei has secured some currency assistance from the U.S., the Argentine Peso is trading at about 1,402 per US Dollar, near the lowest in more than 20 years). There is definite street talk of acreage reductions across the wheat spectrum. This is a slow-moving, price positive factor, a real one that cannot be ignored by the market.  

     The bankers are bound to be in a huddle, as operational loans come due. There will be pressure on the interest rates and pressure on the government…More slow factors, but influential.

     There is likely to be a Friday relief and short-term profit-taking rally in U.S. futures, a purely technical and practical phenomenon, as many traders do not want to hold positions over a weekend with political headlines looming. Although this type of price bounce isn’t fundamental in nature, it may count as a first pebble toward building a breakwater in the markets.

The wheat price trend remains negative, but not powerfully so, as the market is not perceiving a need to slow country movement more than has already been established. PNW wheat is moving out at a steady pace. Stay on plan, make the incremental sales on schedule and prepare a “re-own” trading plan is it’s appropriate for your operation (It adds back risk that had been reduced by sales). The key word is “prepare”. It should not be executed without a solid technical and fundamental rationale (Not just a hunch) and discretionary funding. Do not commit funds that are earmarked for expenses. It’s not farming, but trading.   

     Stay tuned, as the tune may soon balloon. It would not do to miss it!

PS – Gold is still setting new records. More commentary on this phenomenon pending.

-Gary

Market Bullets® Thursday, October 16, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The wheat complex has gone into idle status. All of the trading of the last 3 sessions has been within a 5½-cent range in Chicago December contracts. KC has been a little wider at 12¼-cents. Minneapolis and Paris have both held within 6¾. We are back to guarding multi-year lows like a cat guarding a goldfish that has jumped the tank.

     When there is no motivating factor, then ranges narrow and volume declines. It’s a calm moment that may stretch out longer unless there is an announcement of new trade developments between Trump and Xi, or that Putin has decided to accelerate his rate of attrition, or lobs a bomb into Poland, etc.

      The world’s wire services are focused on China’s new restrictions on rare earth metals, and other high-tech materials and equipment, not just against the U.S., but virtually all global consumers of the stuff. It has taken China a couple of decades to assemble market control in this arena. It may be that they have been planning to use their monopoly of special metals “all along”, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday at a CNBC gathering.

     There is still a fair chance that China will suspend their new rules, depending on results of trade talks. The threat of 100% tariffs leveled by President Trump last Friday was a pointed  response to what is perceived as a global trade and manufacturing calamity. Agriculture has been relegated second to what amounts to a national security issue. Even if China’s new restrictions are held back, it will remain a sword over the heads of trade negotiators until alternative arrangements are acquired. Taiwan is part of this gordian knot.

     Winter wheat seeding is proceeding and unless impeded is likely passing 70% completed.

      Our Box-o-Rox Indicator (the simplest possible way to structure a scheduled incremental selling program as part of a marketing plan), is 29 cents below a shift to a positive slope and a change to “Suspend scheduled incremental sales” status.

     There is nothing magic about the price levels the market is seeing right now. The downside is still open (See the monthly chart of Chicago wheat for the “Secondary Head and Shoulders Pattern Target”).

     There is always another, lower target and still another. Eventually we will see the market turn.

     Stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Wednesday, October 15, 2025: Close

     We are watching the Russian Ruble versus the Chinese Yuan. It appears that the Ruble is gaining strength rapidly, suggesting that that there may be an ongoing intervention to support the Ruble.

     The wheat market had no driver on Wednesday, settling slightly lower in a quiet session.

Gold has gone into a hyperbolic rise.

     The weekly Wheat Export Inspection report has not been affected by the “funding Lapse” because it is deemed “essential” and “mission critical”. For the week ended October 10th, the report from the Ag Marketing Information System (AMIS) shows 444,138 tons inspected (loaded). Cumulative inspections for the 2025/26 marketing year are now 18% ahead of last year’s pace.

     The Columbia-Snake River system is a major inland waterway for moving wheat from the Pacific Northwest, with barges navigating through eight dams and locks to reach deep-water ports like Vancouver and Portland. In recent years, approximately 60% of Washington's wheat crop has been transported via this system.

     According to The 21st edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034: Wheat, maize, rice, and soybean consumption will increase by 11–18 percent, mainly in middle and low-income countries due to higher populations, incomes and continued urbanization.

     By 2034, 40 percent of all cereals by weight are projected to be consumed directly by humans, 33 percent will be used for animal feed.

Market Bullets® Wednesday, October 15, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Wheat prices have found the basement this week, settling just under $5.00 per bushel in Chicago at levels we haven’t seen since the pandemic sent everyone scrambling for staples back in 2020. The December contract hovering near $5.00 on Wednesday very early AM tells a story; there’s wheat, and then there’s more wheat, and the world just doesn’t need it urgently enough to bid up the price.

Chicago is down 12% from this time last year and slipped nearly 4.4% just in the past month. The market’s message comes through clear; Supply is abundant, demand is adequate. And adequate demand meeting abundant supply makes for prices that leave producers checking their pencils twice.

China imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. wheat back in March 2025, and they haven’t blinked since. For all practical purposes, the Chinese market for U.S. wheat has evaporated. Zero purchases. Radio silence.

The world wheat trade has absorbed China’s absence over the last year without the catastrophic price collapse many feared. Other buyers stepped up. U.S. exporters pivoted. And the market found a new equilibrium—just at a lower price.

China raised its 2025 budget for stockpiling grain by 6.1% from a year ago to 131.66 billion yuan ($18.12 billion), signaling they’re serious about self-sufficiency and strategic reserves. They’re buying grain, just not ours, and it’s not all political. They’re the world’s largest agricultural importer, feeding 1.4 billion people, but they’re doing it without U.S. wheat on the shopping list.

The bigger question Isn't whether China comes back—it’s whether the export markets we’ve found to replace them stick around when (or if) wheat from Russia comes off of sanctions and Ukraine to expands to their true capacity. Trade relationships built in adversity can last, but they can also disappear the moment a better offer comes along.

For now, the U.S.-China trade tensions simmer on. Farmers across all of wheat country watch nervously, knowing that any escalation from present levels could be explosive. But at least for this marketing year, China’s absence has been survivable—uncomfortable, but survivable. As of this week, winter wheat planting is guessed at 66% complete. It looks like there will be a crop in ’26. Most analysts expect total U.S. wheat area for 2025/26 to stay relatively flat compared to this year.

If the crop is expected to decline slightly year-over-year, it sounds like bullish news until you remember that we’re sitting on 23 million metric tonnes (845 million bushels) of ending stocks.

  But here’s where it gets slightly more interesting, while wheat sits at five-year lows, U.S. exports are actually *up* 16% year-over-year. We’re shipping 2.6 million metric tonnes out the door every month, even as China sits out this dance with their 15% tariff wall still standing since March. So what gives?  Here is the skinny on the wheat market and what it means for your marketing decisions:

By keeping note of supply conditions, you’ve seen that The USDA keeps finding wheat. In September’s Small Grains Summary, they revised production estimates *upward* by 58 million bushels. That’s not a rounding error—that’s more wheat in the system than anyone was counting on when the combines finished.  Here’s how that went down: Harvested acres came in higher than expected, and yields held better than the early estimates suggested. When you multiply acres by bushels and add it all up, it leads to ending stocks estimated at 22.96 million metric tonnes. That’s a hefty cushion, and the market knows it. 

But it’s not just a North American story. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) is forecasting higher production for their 2025/26 crop. Russia ended up with a much larger crop than drought stories last fall suggested, and they will continue to dominate global export flows with competitive pricing that keeps U.S. wheat honest. The Southern Hemisphere harvest will add to the pile just as we’re trying to move our own bins.

Global wheat stocks have been trending lower year-over-year for a while now. There are expectations for the lowest global ending stocks in nine years, and the 2025/26 harvests aren’t exactly rushing to replenish those reserves. When global production sits at around 794 million metric tons against demand of 802 million tons, you’d think prices would have more support. The problem is that most of that tightness shows up in specific regions—not necessarily where U.S. exporters can capture the premium.

American wheat has become a bargain on the world stage. When you’re competing against Russia and Australia, being cheap matters more than being close. And right now, we’re close to re-taking some market share in some regions.

The weaker dollar has helped too, making our wheat more attractive in foreign currencies. It’s the kind of export surge we like, even if it comes because of inflationary forces rather than because quality soared. If China-Russia and the BRICS nations attempt a dollar coup by creating even a partially gold-backed settlement currency, it might really rattle Dollar value, potentially making U.S. wheat prices rise for a time, but That is a subject for another article.

A decade ago, the U.S. claimed nearly 40% of world wheat exports. Today we’re struggling to hold 30%. We’re moving more bushels in absolute terms, but the global pie is getting bigger, and our slice isn’t keeping pace.  So, who’s buying American wheat when China’s not picking up the phone?  Recent export data shows the Philippines, Mexico, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea leading the charge. South Korea specifically hit a record high of 88.2 million bushels in 2024/25, proving that long-term trading relationships still matter when prices make sense.  We’re even shipping to non-traditional destinations like Mauritius—a small island nation in the Indian Ocean that hadn’t purchased U.S. wheat since 2008. When your price drops enough, buyers you forgot existed suddenly remember your number.

Mexico’s been especially active. April saw record old-crop sales to Mexico of 472,000 metric tons, pushing total exports to Mexico over 4.0 million metric tons—an all-time high. Geography matters, and when U.S. wheat pencils out cheaper than alternatives, proximity becomes an advantage.

Many producers have flexibility with more freedom in planting decisions, so when wheat returns don’t compete with corn or soybeans, acres shift.

All over the world, $5.00 wheat makes building an economic case for planting wheat more difficult. The acreage is already being estimated to decline wherever it is possible. Unless you’re in a rotation that demands wheat or you’ve got dryland acres that won’t support row crops, the math pushes toward alternatives.

So where does this leave us, sitting with wheat in the bin or making decisions about the crop we are about to sell. The carry in the market is a bit slim, more like break even. Unless you’ve got compelling reasons to believe prices will rally soon (Call us if you have a good case), storage costs eat away at your returns. Warm up the spreadsheets and look at the ranges of realistic potential prices versus cost of storage and opportunity costs…Sometimes the best storage is no storage.

Keep an eye on export pace and (when resumed) USDA’s monthly supply-demand updates. If exports stay strong and we chip away at those ending stocks faster than expected, prices will find support. If exports slow or production estimates creep higher, well, you know what happens then.

Wheat at five-year lows isn’t fun, but it’s the reality we’re dealing with. Ample supplies, decent-but-not-booming demand, China on the sidelines, and fierce global competition make for a market that favors buyers over sellers.

This is a market where discipline matters. Don’t fall in love with hope. Price average your sales in slices, capturing those 50-cent rallies if you can. Store only what makes economic sense. And remember that your marketing/sales plan can always be refined, but it is your best tool for survival, even when the market doesn’t cooperate.

We’ve seen $5.00 wheat before, and we’ve seen what comes after. It’s always a floor that holds and launches a recovery. The key is managing what you can control—your costs, your risk, your marketing execution—and not letting what you can’t control keep you up at night.

The market will eventually balance, it always does

Stay sharp out there.

BTW, let’s give a shout-out to those buyers that have stepped up this year to buy U.S. origin wheat. Thanks for your support!

PS – I know this article tended to ramble a bit. Please let me know if it helped you. - Gabriel

Market Bullets® Tuesday, October 14, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Dry bulk freight rates have been pushed higher by the decision of China to charge port fees on U.S. flagged or operated vessels starting the same day as Chinese vessels begin to pay port fees into U.S. ports. The direct effect on U.S. wheat sales is relatively small, as it is unlikely that any U.S. origin wheat will be entering Chinese ports anytime soon, but it is disruptive to international trade flows in general.

      The new, 100% tariffs announced Friday on Chinese goods entering the U.S. was triggered by the earlier Chinese action on Thursday of expanding restrictions on Chinese shipments of rare earth metals and equipment used by chipmakers and other high-tech consumers (especially weapons manufacturers) in the U.S. and elsewhere. This is the major blue-chip game piece in the pending negotiations between Xi and Trump, as it has implications for national security. China produces over 90% of the world's processed rare earths and rare earth magnets. The 17 rare earths are vital materials in products ranging from electric vehicles to aircraft engines and military radars. The practical embargo is likely to overshadow work on agricultural goods, making it a price-negative concept at the moment. The pressure is rising.

     The U.S. Dollar is rising, with the Index now up about 1.7% month-to-date, reversing the general weaker trend that the Dollar had been in since last March, 2025. One effect of that lower movement has been to enhance U.S. wheat export sales.

     One effect of the government shutdown “Funding Lapse” has been the halting of ag data-flow from the USDA, leading to increased sensitivity to news headlines, as traders are heavily dependent on fundamental statistics steadily and reliably released from the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS), Economic Research Services (ERS) and Foreign Ag Service (FAS). This appetite for market data leads to reliance on less accurate sources and more political influence on wheat markets. Price negative.

     Chicago and KC wheat futures were both down about 3-4 cents in very early trading on Tuesday. Both have chewed holes in the long-established baseline on the charts and are now teetering on the edge of an extended lower range for the intact downtrend. The buyers are looking for cover and the sellers have gained confidence as no significant signs of a potential turnaround are present. Cash movement out of the country is slowing, even as some capitulation sales appear.

     The trend is negative. The Box-o-Rox (BoR) indicator is deeply entrenched in the “Execute planned incremental sales” zone. Anxiety is high as the wheat market seeks a rational price. Take some of the post-harvest time available to review marketing alternatives. Prepare a “re-owning” action plan, even if there is little likelihood of using it. The exercise of creating it may yield perspective…just don’t use it yet!

     Stay tuned. All over the world, people eat bread every day. Steady consumption of wheat is the heartbeat of the market, and will relieve the low price dilemma.  

   PS: See Gold and Dollar charts.

Market Bullets® Monday, October 13, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Bond markets are closed on Monday for Columbus Day – Wheat and other grains trade ordinary hours.

     The wheat complex, including Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW), Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW), Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Paris 11% Milling Wheat, is regularly printing new 5-year lows by fractional amounts. The trend is and has been negative since May, and that period itself is part of a larger negative trend that was set up by the explosion of prices due to the invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022. The Chicago wheat price has now fallen $8.65 since its highest point in March of 2022 and is trading at the same levels as July/August of 2020.

     The world anticipated food supply problems that have never materialized to any profound extent. The truth is that there was plenty of wheat available and more being grown (especially in Russia and Ukraine). The market moves on anticipation but always corrects back to the balance of real supply and demand, seeking “fair value”.

     The previous wheat price spike in late 2007 into 2008 was driven by more mundane and familiar factors, as in a failed harvest in the southern hemisphere and a weakening U.S. Dollar, along with robust demand from China and other major importers. Those twin price peaks raised the average price of a bushel of wheat to where nearly anyone in the world who could grow wheat planted it. The path to greater, more diversified global wheat production was lit up like Times Square at New Year’s.

     Where do we go from here? Global consumption continues to expand, but the supply has outrun the demand. The buyers are having no problem originating wheat, and have even become complacent as they have been repeatedly rewarded for procrastinating forward purchases. It is intuitive that the price of wheat is near some important long-term lows. Production is slowing.

     The downside is not eliminated. Admitting that this is just thumbnail calculating: If we toss out the “Russia/Ukraine War Effect” and 2007 global shortage spike, and then account for inflation since 2005 (just before the big price spikes began), Chicago wheat was roughly $3.28, or about $5.45 in 2025 dollars. Early Monday trading had December Chicago wheat at $4.97.

     We are still in a 50-cent range environment, but the fundamental drivers underlying the market are shifting glacially toward a price-positive background (Good consumption and slowing production). Maybe not a $2.00 way, but enough to bring the median price back up to where the bills can be paid. The next black swan will come along in its own time. Then we will feast.

     For now, we will be tracking the trend and working to stay in harmony with it. That means to reduce exposure when the trend is against us and to preserve or increase the exposure when it is in our favor. Box-o-Rox (BoR) is in robust “Execute incremental sales” mode. Call your merchant and discuss both strategic and tactical moves. “Hold-and-hope” may sometimes work, but it often does harm. Tighten up the plan.

     Stay tuned.

Text your questions to 509-602-0454.   

Market Bullets® Friday, October 10, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     When the closing bell rang on Thursday, CBOT December Wheat was down ¾-Cent at $5.06½ per bushel. Kansas City HRW was hit harder, down 3½ cents, and only the Minneapolis Spring Wheat contracts managed a marginal gain, up 1½ cents.

     The wheat market is paralyzed by a three-pronged attack on upside momentum: The global buyers—particularly Egypt, the world’s top importer—are still easily sourcing from Russia and other Black Sea origins. The price difference dictates the flow, and U.S. wheat is not competitive enough into the Black Sea marketing zone to access our massive domestic stocks. The relief for the U.S. wheat complex would be a sustained disruption to Black Sea logistics or a massive breakthru into Chinese demand. We are not seeing these.

     Corn and Soybeans are providing no assistance, closing lower on the Thursday, shedding 3¾ cents and 7¼ cents, respectively.

     Thursday was the day the October WASDE report had been scheduled. It is now in delayed stgatus until the government shutdown is resolved. The market hates uncertainty, usually a price-negative factor. Without the USDA to kick around, traders are parked on GO, do not collect $200. When the fundamental compass spins around aimlessly, it encourages risk-aversion for a market swimming in supply.

     The Rosario Grains Exchange in Argentina has posted an increased estimate for their 2025-26 wheat production of 845.2 million bushels, 15% above previous forecasts and near last year’s record. Argentina is poised to become much more aggressive in marketing than most recent decades, having already demonstrated a well-received, if brief grain export tax holiday already. Chinese buying was the star of that show. More should be expected.   

     There is talk that some Russian wheat producers may pull back on planted wheat hectarage in the next planting cycle, shifting instead to alternative and more profitable crops. This is what the economics textbooks call for in the case of low prices.

     Small specs in forums expressing bewilderment about wheat…not normal, as they usually are full of bravado.  Capitulation talk is a sign of lows.

     Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat has seen some beneficial rains that slowed planting in parts of the plains but improved the soil moisture profile. The outlook for improved 2026 crop conditions weighs on the deferred contracts.

Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat prices are still the bellwether for the world. The Chicago contract is wobbling just pennies above its recent contract low of 5.02. The speculative money has already sold the "bad news" and is now simply watching.

     The Box-o-Rox Indicator remains at: "Execute Incremental Sales on Schedule”. The lead contract in Chicago is about 25 cents below the indicator line at which the board changes to “Hold Scheduled Sales”.   

     We are between “The Heavy Reality” (supply) and “The Faint Hope” (a near-term short-covering rally).

     The bright spot remains in the cash market amid good export sales. Firm basis levels indicate local demand remains active at these depressed futures prices. Utilize strong basis opportunities. The market is still alive.

     Short-Term Strategy: We are currently watching the $5.00 psychological support level in SRW and the contract low area in KC HRW. A close below these points would signal a renewed push by the Managed Money crowd on the sell side. For now, we make the scheduled incremental sales on schedule, now totaling about 76% of this year’s crop sold.

     Stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Thursday, October 9, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The Federal furlough that has stalled the USDA's reporting is not just an inconvenience; it is a direct contributor to market paralysis. The chart-reader’s game relies on data to confirm or deny the pattern. The wheat market complex is flying in the darkness without USDA’s data-flow. The only thing tighter than the last three sessions' trading range is the information flow from Washington.

     There will be no monthly World Ag Supply/Demand (WASDE) or weekly Export Sales reports as previously scheduled for Thursday morning. These reports are a key long-term factor to transparent markets as they provide a re-calibration each month that helps to keep prices aligned to reality for grains, including wheat. Tracking of export sales and shipments along with other consumption stats is summarized and integrated with ratios and balances used by the markets to stay focused. Only congressional resolution of the partial government shutdown will result in resumption of USDA’s essential periodic reports. Meanwhile there are rumors of decent export activity, but without the normal “Flash” reports to which we are accustomed, the trade response is muted.  

     Jordan at 4.4 million bushels (120,000 metric tonnes) and Algeria (50,000 metric tonnes) have both issued new international tender sessions for purchases of milling wheat.

     The Chicago wheat trade in the early hours of Thursday was slightly positive, up 2½ cents. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) bread wheat was about the same. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring wheat futures were up 3-4 cents, while Paris Milling wheat contracts were indicating +2 to 3 cents per bushel equivalent prices (Paris trades metric tonne pricing).  Kinda reminds us of late 60’s and early 70’s trading in which a 3-5-cent move was notable. Wednesday’s session gave us a plus ¾-cent gain after a narrowly lower night session. PNW Soft White Winter (SWW) wheat is camped on $3.90 for October deliveries with a 3-cent per month carry thru March of 2026.  

     Global supplies continue to set a bearish framework. Forecasts for a record-high global grain stockpile—led by bumper crops in the EU, Russia, and Argentina—are not a risk, they are a structural reality. Buyers are perfectly content to remain hand-to-mouth.

     This situation is not unlike a military siege. The army outside the gates (the buyers) has plenty of rations (global supply) as they surround the fortress of the producers. They understand that time is the variable that works for them. Producers must eventually move wheat to service debt, cover the bills, or simply clear storage. Eventually, the fortress runs low on internal supplies (cash flow) and must open the gates to the besiegers' terms. It is not a clash of cunning, but of endurance. For global wheat marketers, the example of the Black Sea serves here; Russia and Ukraine are both steadily shipping wheat into global channels at discount prices. Both nations are bleeding slowly, but grimly hanging on, as their collective history and cultures have demonstrated for hundreds of years. Not so much cunning, as endurance.  

     We maintain the “Steady” call. The market's exhaustion near these long-term lows is a dangerous time. Do not mistake the present low volatility for low risk. Geo-political tectonics can trigger big moves, but that is not a marketing plan. A definitive, pre-planned marketing schedule is essential. Incremental sales on rallies—no matter how small—remain the best work against the siege of global supply. Old marketers know to focus on what you can control: your cost of carry, your re-owning strategy, and the simple commitment to execute your plan. If you deliberately hold a position in wheat, let it be with the trend, not against it. Your endurance will outlast the siege.

     Stay tuned. The story has many chapters ahead.

-Gabriel

Odds and Ends:

         Are there bugs in your nappy pants? A beetle that infests stored grains can render them inedible and constitutes a serious threat to exported grains, including wheat. The Khapra beetle larvae has recently been found in “nappy pants” (disposable diapers) imported into Australia, which has not previously been infested. Native to South Asia, it is considered “The number one priority for the Australian grains industry” according to an article in ABC Australia on September 16, 2025:

     Chinese “resource purchasing” consolidation to one agency for iron ore may be an indication of similar fundamental concentration of buying for wheat and other ag products. From ABC Asia, October 2, 2025: “Though they still haven't been officially confirmed, reports that China's state-owned buyer told steelmakers to stop purchasing iron ore from Australian mining giant BHP have rattled both markets and Canberra.”

-g

Market Bullets® Wednesday, October 8, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Wheat sleepwalks, whispering of global dealmaking that might jolt it awake. The wheat complex is trudging as if through mud, with Chicago December Soft Red Winter (SRW) contracts loafing around $5.04, fading ever closer to the low edge of the last five years of trading. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) is flat as a pancake, while Minneapolis HRS is down a half-cent, and Paris milling wheat’s pointing to a 1-cent equivalent dip. No one’s throwing hands—yet.

     Filtering authentic journalism out from the noise of so much geopolitical static, we hear the U.S.-China summit buzz is growing louder, with trade talks acknowledging the possibility of…more trade talk. Add France’s political cage match and the Israel-Palestinian negotiations nearing the finish line, and you’ve got a stew of uncertainty, although those political entities with skin in these games are aware that the hyperbole has a limited shelf life. If the knots untangle, markets might pop like a cork in relief. If the lines fray and the knots harden, we suspect more sideways slogging.

     The supply story is just as snooze-inducing as trade talk, with Southern Hemisphere harvests—Australia, Argentina—are chugging along without a hitch, piling on the global wheat stack. No weather gremlins to shake things up, so the supply glut’s still the boss. The northern hemisphere spring weather campaign is 6 months away.

     U.S. wheat exports are the one candle in the dark, running 21% ahead of last year’s pace by USDA’s most recent figures (the timing of the next World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) is unknown for the moment). Buyers like Algeria and Jordan are smoldering, but it’ll take a bigger spark to light a real rally.

     Going into the Producer Playbook: Says “Stay disciplined”—keep those incremental sales on schedule. Study the alternative market strategies with your merchant. It’s worth the trouble. They have the slide rule ready.

ABC...Always Be Charting. Chicago’s teasing $5.00 long-term lows again, but yesterday’s bounce off $5.09 suggests buyers aren’t totally asleep. Watch for a 1-2-3 reversal pattern—if we get a higher low above $5.03 soon, a technical pop could be in the cards. Especially as Gold’s still moonwalking to new highs (breaking through $4,000/oz overnight). If wheat starts sniffing inflation-hedge vibes like gold (see Sept 23 Update in “Archived”), funds might perk up.

     Whenever a big market like wheat trades so very close to long-term lows, the impulse among the big speculative funds is to test those lows by selling hard for a day of so just to see if the buyer population is committed to holding the line or not. The effect of a failed long-term support line is usually a spike in volatility and a sharp decline of a day or two. The potential for a longer period of sharp decline is probably low, but at the same point the likelihood of a sharp recovery bounce is also low probability. The recalibration after a hard break takes time. For marketers, the experience of a sudden sharp loss is uncomfortable and can trigger emotional decisions that are rarely healthy for the bottom line. The antidote to this is preparation, incremental sales on a schedule, thoughtful positioning and deliberate trades noted in a journal.

     The charts will tell us what we need to know. Forecasting is not good business, but being aware of trends (not just in wheat) is very healthy. The fundamentals move slowly.            

       Stay tuned.

PS, Gold has traded at yet another dramatic new all-time high above $4,060 per Troy ounce early Wednesday morning. The gold market is speaking to us, but the buying pattern was diffused among a large number of participants in the last Commitment of Traders report, now two weeks old (CFTC stats crew is on shutdown hiatus). This bears further pondering.

 The U.S. Dollar Index is on a rapid increase for the first time in many months.         

PS New all-time highs in the December gold delivery contract Sunday night heading into Monday.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, October 7, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Next full commentary Tuesday PM, October 7, 2025. The trend for wheat remains unchanged at neutral to negative. The effect of U.S. Government partial shutdown, if any, seems mostly to make things quieter. There are some large political items pending, with possible summit between China and the U.S., Political in-fighting in France and the nearly concluded negotiations between Isreal and the Palestinians. If all of the turmoil is resolved, the markets (all) may jump just in relief. If they are not settled, the markets are unlikely to change behavior. The global wheat markets will continue to function as before.

     Steady as she goes. Stay on plan, with incremental wheat sales on schedule.

     Stay tuned to this channel  

Market Bullets® Monday, October 6, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     As we are furiously typing away at 2:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7), the Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures market is trading at the center of Friday’s hi/lo range. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) is up a penny or so. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) is flat to down ½-cent, while Paris 11% milling wheat is indicating the equivalent of plus 1-2 cents per bushel. Is there a mandate? Nope, just another grain of salt grinding into the ocean.      The wheat complex remains in a pattern that has been dominant for two (2) years. There is no villain, although we can paint Vladimir Putin as the antagonist, or if we prefer, we can point at China, or Trump (he seems to enjoy it). None of the above are in control of the amount of wheat that is seeking a home in the global markets. The weather is not making big problems in the fall seeding process, and the southern hemisphere seems to be headed into a decent production year. The prospect of a longer period of difficult wheat marketing is clearly before us.

     That dismal view does not have to be a source of sleeplessness. There are ways of managing a flat market if one is a perpetually “long” (always owning wheat) producer. There is no magic, just good, deliberate marketing, Hedge to arrive, Government loan, options on futures set to control outright market risk, deferred sales…Call your merchant, who has spent many hours calculating and re-calculating strategies to help.

     The best antidote to marketing stress is market study to reduce the unknown as much as possible. Donald Rumsfeld once said in 2002: “Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.” We will apply this perspective to wheat prices, trying to minimize the “Unknown Unknowns”.

     The reasons available to support the idea of higher prices ahead for wheat are all hypothetical. That is all well and good, but does not constitute “actionable” information. The trend is flat and flabby, so flat that it will be obvious when it changes, positive or negative. This allows a respite, kind of like a tin can alarm on a fishing line. That does not excuse us from paying attention. The world is full of angst, frustration and impulsive decision-making. This we cannot abide. So we focus on what is actually happening. At least the futures markets are still fairly transparent, revealing real prices for real stuff.

     Stay tuned here for wheat tracking ideas.

-Gary

Market Bullets® Friday, October 3, 2025: Pre-Dawn

The USDA Stocks report from last Tuesday?  A flash in the pan. The market flinched, then rallied—not with bravado, but with bone-deep conviction. Losses were clawed back, quietly, like a fighter who knows the round isn’t over. What looked like a bearish ambush turned out to be a mirage. The wheat complex absorbed the blow, recalibrated, and moved on.

But the real story isn’t what we saw—it’s what we can’t.  

The USDA’s “shutdown holiday” has pulled the plug on the market’s dashboard. No fresh acreage maps. No recalibrated carryout. No export pace. Traders are flying IFR—instrument flight rules—with half the instruments dark. Supply-side clarity fades into statistical haze, and demand—already elusive—becomes mythic.

It’s not a holiday. It’s a fog bank.  

And in that fog, opacity becomes the dominant force.  

The market doesn’t wait—it improvises.  It prices in ghosts, trades on shadows, and builds conviction from whispers.

Meanwhile, the tariff chessboard shifted.  Settlements between the U.S. and a slate of wheat-buying nations—Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka—secured fresh pledges for U.S. ag products. Wheat included. These are buyers that had been drifting toward Black Sea origins. That pivot isn’t just geographic—it’s gravitational. It signals a recalibration of trade flows, and in a market starved for bullish catalysts, it matters.

So where do we hang our bullish hat?  On export sales. Rising. Resilient.  

Demand is the shadow actor now—harder to measure, harder to trust. But it’s the tide beneath the surface. And it’s moving.

In the absence of data, conviction becomes currency.  

Every tick is a vote of confidence or doubt in the unseen.  

Every basis move is a heartbeat.  

Every export sale is a flare in the fog.

This is not a market for the timid.  

It’s a market for those who can trade bold while flying blind.  

And right now, the bold are leaning bullish.

In this fogbound stretch, clarity is a luxury. But conviction? That’s still on the table. Export momentum, tariff pivots, and the market’s quiet resilience offer more than just noise—they offer narrative. And while the USDA’s silence leaves us flying blind, the signals that remain are enough to chart a course. For now, the wheat market isn’t waiting for permission—it’s moving. And the bold are moving with it.

~Gabriel

Market Bullets® Tuesday, September 30, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Quarterly Stocks in All Positions reports come out this AM (Tuesday, September 30, 2025 at 9:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7), 11:00 Central). These inventory reports are the linchpin between all of the estimates released in between inventory counts and the market price. They tighten the reality of the market’s ideas of wheat supply and the actual supply. If the trade’s judgement of the supply is off, sometimes the Stocks reports can trigger “tectonic adjustments” that shake things up a bit. It is well to respect the power of these potentials by being conservative with positions ahead of the statistical release.

     It is also end-of-quarter and end-of-month; the dates from which are derived profit or loss for the big speculative trading funds. Its payday for them, so if there is a trade to be closed it has to be done before the close of business Tuesday (most of this work has already been done by now). After the reports, the brakes are released on trades re-establishing old or establishing new positions, also a source of potential volatility.

     With the above in mind, we will comment in more detail after the release. The character of the market heading into Q4 and the fall marketing season will be based on the numbers coming out.  

     Gold is reaching almost daily new all-time highs. Diesel has been pulling back from a recent minor peak.

     More later…   Stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Monday, September 29, 2025: Pre-Dawn

The final Monday morning of September 2025 had Chicago wheat plus-1-2 cents at 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7 ). KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat futures were also up 1-2 cents. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) at $5.68 was up just ¼-cent in its December contract. Paris was indicating negative 2 cents. This is a market without conviction, unless you count flat for weeks and weeks as dedication. It is consumption that will eventually lead to a change, as production is a slower fundamental to change, and there is a glacial fundamental trend toward less wheat in inventory.

The wheat trade doesn’t run on autopilot—it runs on instinct, pattern, and the occasional gut punch from Mother Nature or Moscow. As September winds down and the Northern Hemisphere catches its breath, we find ourselves at a crossroads: technical signals flicker like lanterns in fog, fundamentals shift like loam under boot, and the news—well, it’s a patchwork quilt of hints and hazards.

  Chicago wheat futures slipped 0.2% Friday, hovering near a soft support shelf. The market is caught between nap and nerve.

  UK feed wheat (Nov-25) nudged up £0.35/t to £166.60/t—flatlining in rhythm with a quiet pound, as

Paris 11% milling wheat December contracts gained 0.5%, buoyed by euro weakness and cautious optimism. Less than impressive.

  Russian 12.5% protein wheat ticked up to $228–229/MT FOB, ending a month-long slide—the bear stirs in its den.

  The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2025/26 wheat forecast to 819 Mt (USDA: 816 Mt). 

  European ag trade association COCERAL bumped EU+UK soft wheat to 147.4 metric tonnes, citing strong harvests in France, Germany, and Poland.

  So much for crop disaster calls last fall…Private Russian-based analyst SovEcon slightly trimmed Russia’s wheat export forecast to 43.4 million metric tonnes, citing weak demand and sluggish early shipments. SovEcon estimates Russkiy harvest will hit 87.2 million metric tonnes—above last year’s 82.6—with more fields yet to thrash. USDA has posted 85 million.

Australia and Argentina are sharpening their sales blades—Southern Hemisphere harvest exports could undercut Russian FOB prices. Pre-Week game plan: (Sept 29–Oct 6):

Watch for Southern Hemisphere harvest updates—Australia and Argentina likely to shift global wheat market tone negatively.

Brazil’s Soybeans Surge forecasted up 3.6% to 177.7 million metric tonnes.

China Trade Tensions remain after a presidential call offered hope for easing ag trade friction, but no concrete outcomes.

As the combines roll out of the field toward the shop and the currency winds shift, the wheat market hoof prints fade fast. Stay sharp, stay curious and stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Friday, September 26, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The U.S. Dollar Index has reversed month-to-date from negative 1.98% at its low to positive 0.38%. The Index is at its strongest level since September 11. In a gross over-simplification of the relationship between wheat and the Dollar, it translates to roughly 14 cents per bushel in a FOB contract for delivery.

     NY Harbor Diesel contracts now trading up to prices last seen on July 31, 2025.

     Following a modest but noticeable recovery in Thursday's trade, Chicago wheat futures are holding near the $5.25/bushel level in the early hours of Friday. The complex is now trying to absorb a very clear fundamental split: abundant supply against unexpectedly aggressive demand.

     The catalyst for this recent upward correction was yesterday's release of robust USDA Export Sales numbers, which significantly exceeded expectations. This surge—well ahead of the pace required for the latest USDA forecast—forced the market to acknowledge that international buyers are indeed re-engaging, particularly with large purchases coming from importers like Iran, Algeria, and Jordan.  Us? For now, the strong demand data has provided the necessary "quick drawback upward" after the bellwether Chicago December contract flirted with the $5.15 short-term warning line earlier in the week.

      However, the technical challenge remains. While the market has honored the longer-term lows, the overarching fundamental matrix is little changed. The International Grains Council (IGC) continues to boost its global production forecasts, and the competitive environment is intensifying with Argentina’s decision to temporarily eliminate export taxes. This only serves to further enable lower-cost Black Sea sellers.

     On a related note, the Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Index continues its volatile ascent, now trading at its highest point since July. Rising transportation costs are a structural price negative for physical wheat offers in global tenders, and should not be ignored.

     The macro climate presents a curious duality. The US Cash Dollar Index climbed up past 98 on Thursday to hit near a 3-week high. This strength is usually a headwind for U.S. Dollar denominated assets like wheat, making them more expensive than competitor sources. For our nascent wheat price reversal to be sustained, we need to see a continued weak Dollar and/or a fundamental event.

There is no confirmed trend change emerging yet. The market is merely pausing its downward momentum at a point where physical demand is forced to step in. We remain in a highly cautious environment.

     The trade’s eyes are on the maintenance of the sideways trend. Chicago seems to be working on the first step of a 1-2-3 reversal (old school chart pattern). If it manages to put in a simple test of the downside with a higher low and then breaks above the current highs within the channel, we may be able to construct a nice tech rally just ahead of the quarterly Stocks-In-All-Positions report due on the 30th. We have a reasonable expectation that the funds will be willing to buy to take profits heading into the end-of-quarter settlement (This is how they get paid).    

…That’s all folks! There will certainly be more later. Please stay tuned.

-Gabriel

Market focus is growing more vital as margins shrink. Check out the link in this piece for perspective on how corn producers are thinking:

“An overwhelming majority of corn growers from across the United States say that the nation’s farm economy is possibly already in a crisis or on the brink of one, according to a new survey released today by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA).”

     That is large-scale, long-term market low talk.

     We are in an environment where marketing every kernel of wheat as carefully and deliberately as possible is among the most effective allocations of time and effort available. If you have not written and followed a thoughtful marketing plan it is absolutely never too late to begin. If you have such a plan and have worked it for years, you know it is always a work in progress. The wheat market, like all price discovery, bid/ask, liquid markets, demands focused attention from all of us. This focus is worth a significant percentage of return over time.

     This is not about forecasting, predicting the price ahead, or even finding an Ai-driven, black-box system to follow. It is about controlling risk by being aware of the price environment and taking advantage of trends. We have written about how it resembles tracking and capturing a living creature in the wild, which may be amusing, but when combined with set of more mechanical analysis tools it makes a formidable approach, raising confidence, reducing stress, and increasing success.  

     Wheat prices are near the edge of a drop-off. The long-term lows that have been established and tested by the market itself many times are well-known price zones where buyers and sellers have both found transactions to make economic sense. If the price penetrates below this zone, it will trigger less rational behavior, ultimately making buyers more aggressive and sellers more reluctant, the stuff of which historical lows are made.

     The present upside potential of this market is not huge, at least for this crop year, with a large northern hemisphere crop already in the bin and a healthy southern hemisphere crop pending, but the global buyers are active, as the U.S. export figures are showing every week. There will be rallies and we will be aware of them. The answer to too much cheap wheat in the world is more consumption, which is exactly what is happening.  

     Stay tuned to this channel for “the rest of the story”. (Thanks, Paul Harvey).

Market Bullets® Wednesday, September 24, 2025: Close

     If the most recent “higher high” in our bellwether Chicago contract was to be the first leg of a reversal upward, the following low, yesterday (Tuesday), would have been required to be “higher low”, not exceeding the low of September 11. As it worked out, Tuesday’s low was once again lower, repudiating the nascent reversal pattern. Now we must begin again in the ever-patient hunt for a sign of market trend-change to the upside. Some mild technical damage was done this week-to-date, with a new Life-of-Contract (LOC) low, leaving only the long-term lows around $5.00 as any challenge to the bears.

     Paris printed a new 5-Year low during Tuesday’s session by €.50 per metric tonne (1.6 cents per bushel equivalent) and without a confirming closing settlement. That market was followed by a narrowly stronger trade on Wednesday. These changes are too small to be considered as any more than a test of the price lows, but it is a hint of a continuation of a negative trend in Paris, a decent Black Sea wheat price indicator.

     U.S. wheat exports are a moderately bright spot, running about 21% ahead of last year’s volume pace and 53% ahead of the pace required to reach USDA’s most recent estimate for this crop year, but it is likely to require a change in fundamental matrix to propel wheat prices into more than short technical rallies.

     Stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Wednesday, September 24, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Tuesday’s trade erased nearly all of Monday’s slide in Chicago wheat futures, and very early trade on Wednesday followed through for a few hours, but by 3:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7) the market had returned to unchanged on light volume. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) has completely repudiated Monday’s losses, closing Tuesday at 4 cents above Monday’s highest trade, but Wednesday morning was flat. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) early Wednesday morning was indicating unchanged to up ¼-cent. Paris was showing flat to down 1 cent equivalent.   

     Global dry bulk ocean freight rates continue to rise as reflected by the Baltic Exchange Index, now at its highest price since July of this year and within 50 points or so of its highest since March of 2024. Wheat offered at global open tenders is more expensive as a result, a moderate price negative for wheat.

     China has been buying soybeans from Argentina, triggered by the recent suspension of export taxes. No U.S. beans have been picked up by the Chinese buyers this crop-year-to-date. It can be assumed that this pattern will continue until the U.S./China trade impasse is resolved, or southern hemisphere exportable supplies are exhausted. U.S. meetings with Chinese trade representatives are reported to be active.   

     Minneapolis Spring wheat futures hit a new 5-year low less than 2 cents below the previous low but closed above that line. The test of the low is not complete…Hard Red Spring (HRS) is still 17 cents below the Box-o-Rox indicator line, so continues in “Execute incremental sales on schedule” mode.

     Quarterly Stocks-In-All-Positions inventory numbers will be released at the end of September. The Stocks Reports are capable of surprise, as revisions are generally applied in the quarterly numbers, so the trade is usually conservative with net open positions being adjusted ahead of time.   

There is no trend change emerging yet, but once again the long-term lows have been honored by a toe-dip trade testing the cold water and a quick drawback upward on Tuesday.

     Our plan says continue to liquidate wheat in incremental amounts on a set schedule while preparing a re-buy program for some of the wheat sold earlier If a well-defined change in market tone emerges. Sometimes these re-own plans are created and never executed, but they can provide a psyche boost and reduction of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) the enemy of the marketer.

     Stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, September 23, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     A possible driver of wheat prices: Wheat may come to be seen as a category of short-term inflation hedge. Gold is hitting new highs, presumably on inflation and potential international economic uncertainty. There is potential for wheat to be used in the same way. The funds have not seen reason to buy wheat based on fundamental or technical analysis, but perspective could change depending on global economic upheaval.

     Wheat is a non-interest-bearing asset, similar to gold. When interest rates trend lower, the cost of holding wheat declines, making it more attractive to hold as an asset.

      If the Russia continues to grind against NATO by encroaching on neighboring countries, lending to a trend toward wider, hotter war(s), wheat may come to be seen as a safe-haven and food security investment.

     The above suggestions are not “normal” for wheat markets, where value is usually assigned according to end-user demand versus abundance or scarcity of supply. The environment of anxiety about a slow trend toward more war and trade uncertainty may drive investors and even end-users themselves toward changing their perspective about wheat ownership, especially in light of a historically small global wheat stocks to usage ratio (Excluding China) at present.

     The signs of a change of perspective will probably show up among the funds and thus in the charts when it comes. It is likely that this admittedly vague idea is early, as the trade is viewing wheat as abundant and cheap at present, but we will be working on gauging the factor and will report it if and as it emerges.

     Monday’s trade was negative, there ain’t no way to tilt it, the wheat complex had the buyers standing back with folded arms. Chicago managed to penetrate below the “warning line” at $5.12, opening the potential for a serious challenge of long-term lows at $5.00 in the December contract.

      If we reach November without the bottom falling out, the December contract might expire with about 19 cents carrying charge between Dec and Mar’26 contracts, which appears on continuous charts as a “rally” which is just the cost of carrying wheat from the expiration of December contracts to the expiration of March contracts.

   The weekly Export Inspections report showed 854,454 metric tonnes (31.4 million bushels) of wheat shipped in the week of September 18th, 12.9% above last week 17.92% more than last year same week. The cumulative marketing year wheat shipments stand at 8.711 million metric tonnes 12.7% above last year’s pace. This is the only light shining on U.S. wheat prices, but the effect is real and will force the market to adjust eventually.

  Argentina is about to get more aggressive on wheat exports. They announced Monday a temporary elimination of withholding taxes on grain exports until either October 31 or the accumulation of $7 billion in exports.

     The wheat price trend is lower, with new technical challenges of long-term lows. Its best here to stay on schedule with incremental sales of wheat, as it could be some time yet before new factors emerge with the potential to change the price balance.

     Stay tuned. We are tracking the beast!

Market Bullets® Monday, September 22, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Commitment of Traders report on Friday: Chicago wheat market shows large speculative entities at a net short-sold -72,150 contracts, very nearly the same as mid-June this year, with very little variation since then. That total is 18,000 contracts larger than it was in early July, but 46,000 smaller than its historical peak in early May. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) futures are even in a narrower distribution, but also about unchanged since June. This shows that the northern hemisphere harvest did not stimulate any large-scale moves downward, nor did the tariff parade have much effect. Eventually the big spec funds will have to buy back all those sold contracts in what amounts to a pool of latent buying energy. They are unlikely to move without a spark of some kind.

      The market has been in a narrow (60-cent) sideways channel for 14 weeks. There must be enough demand at the low end to sustain prices and enough supply at the high end to swamp the buyers into submission. Eventually the market will chew through one barrier or the other and we will have a change in perspective. Today…we have a straight-road ahead to the horizon. Maybe it’s a mirage, but maybe if we fire up the “jet car with oscillation overthruster” we can break through the barrier to the 8th dimension. (“The Adventures of Buckaroo Banzai” 1984).

     This is no weird science fiction movie, just a long and slow market that is dealing with plenty of wheat available for sale.  

     Very early trade on Monday morning had Chicago down 2-3 cents. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) was off about 2 and Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat futures were down ½ top 1 cent. Paris was showing down about 1 cent per bushel.

     The trendline is flat to negative. Box-o-Rox is in full “Execute planned incremental sales” mode, with the futures close last Friday 22 cents below the green indicator (Hold Sales) line. The Chicago market is trading at the same level as Friday the 12th (September WASDE report day).

     There is no buy signal on the board, with the December Chicago futures contract looking at the previous December contract Life of Contract (LOC) low of September 11 ($5.12) as a failure warning line, followed by the previous long-term low at $500¾ from August 2020(!). A closing price penetration of these two benchmark lines in the sand would reveal selling energy overcoming buying, opening the door to another series of new lows. Now those previous incremental sales of wheat at what seemed like stupid prices begin to look better. It is still to maintain discipline and follow plan, along with preparation for a re-own buy (if it is appropriate for your operation, given that it adds risk to your marketing profile). Even the preparation of such orders can relieve some of the psyche pressure.

     We know there will come a turning point, and that it will not be a “one low and up from there” low. This downtrend is old and strong. Such creatures do not die quickly or easily. A solid base has been built from which to launch a new uptrend, but we do not have the fundamental or technical requirements to call for such a change yet. Trust the plan.

Stay Tuned.  

PS – Gold has traded at a new All-Time high in the early hours of Monday, September 22. The December futures contract was at $3,761.10 per Troy Ounce, up $245/Oz at 3:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7) on Monday. Month-to-Date in September.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, September 16, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     As of very early trade on Tuesday morning in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat, the December contract was up 2 cents. It only adds up to a net gain of 11 cents or so since the Life of Contract (LOC) low on 9-11, but if we are seeing the beginning of a positive trading day on Tuesday, it will amount to a string of four (4) trading days in a row with positive wheat price settlements for the first time since last June. It’s a nearly microscopic shift in market behavior and we are straining hard for it to be “Something”, but right now it amounts to a small shift in the wind on a hunting trip, nothing…and yet…

     Market prices often move without visible rationale. It is an old axiom that “It is not the news that makes the market, it is the market that make the news.” If you ask any pundit, “Why has the market done thus?”, he or she will give an answer that is plausible, but there is no guarantee that is the actual reason. This is why charts are so valuable, even as the fundamental analysis is the underlying basis for the price. The movement of the price is almost never driven directly, day by day on macro supply and demand data.                  

     There are thousands of decisions made by thousands of traders that do not concern themselves with balance sheets moment by moment. The charts show what the money is doing, whether that is the funds or the bankers, or the farmers and landlords, or even the infamous speculators.

     The market is a living breathing, sentient creature. When the weather is dry and hot, the herd will move to the green uplands. When it grows cold and wet, the herd begins to trail down to the warmer lowlands. This is the fundamental pattern. The tracks of the herd are the charts, to be followed by the hunter hour by hour, day by day, in order to be close to his objective. The general direction of the tracks over time is driven by conditions, in keeping with the fundamentals, but in order to capture the crittur, the chart is the key.        

     This may be a bit poetic, but it is intended to imply that both the fundamentals and the technicals have a secure seat at the market table.

     Today’s fundamental circumstances are not price friendly for wheat. The global abundance of wheat is the stuff dreams are made of the end-users, but down the road, the producers will have their turn at the top of the ferris wheel, when low prices have slowed the production down and demand has continued to grow. For us, many of whom can grow anything we want (as long as it is wheat), it is a patience-taxing circumstance that requires market analysis resembling that of a speculator, more opportunistic and nimble, less plodding and methodical. Awareness of where the market is and how it is moving is the essential factor for controlling risk. It need not be stressful.

     U.S. wheat export shipments for the week ended on September 11 were 775,073 metric tonnes (28.48 million bushels), an 80% jump over last week’s report and 31% larger than last year same week. Mexico led with 202,728 tonnes, then Indonesia with 162,277 and South Korea at 100,712. Marketing year-to-date exports stand at 7.855 million metric tonnes, about 12% ahead of the previous year. This is the consumption rate that will change the market tone eventually.

     6-State Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat harvest is 94% completed as of September 14, a couple of percent ahead of the 5-year average.

    Winter wheat planting in the PNW has WA at 50% versus 42% average by now, OR 13% vs 9% and ID 12% sown vs 14% average.  

     This stuff is trackable. Let’s track it!

PS: Bulk Ocean Freight has been rising and is not its highest since July of 2024. Delivered prices of any-origin wheat rises on this factor.

Gold has reached a new all-time high early Tuesday morning at $3,737 per Troy Ounce.

Market Bullets® Monday, September 15, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The COT report on Friday showed trading funds unmoved, with small adjustments in aggregated speculative short-sold positions: Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat as of Sep 9th were -82,139 contracts vs -71.636 last week, and KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) -28,727 vs -33,710 previous. The largest recent net short position in Chicago SRW was -May 13 at -118,100 (35,961 contracts more net sold than today). Usually such a change suggests at least one rally of size as a result of all that short-covering, and indeed there was a 60-cent jump between May 13 and June 20.   

     There is more to a rally than the Speculative Funds alone, as the other side of each Spec short contract had a Commercial buyer. Since the Commercials do not speculate, but hedge only, their earlier buying was done to cover cash forward obligations that were initiated without the wheat in inventory. When the Specs cover their shorts, it’s when the Commercials are selling, as a rally causes cash wheat to move out of the country and reduce the need for futures coverage of obligations. So the rally was sponsored by the spec funds buying, with the commercials selling. This is a slow-moving but powerful indicator of market avalanche potential.

     The value of watching these large entities for marketers is that when they reach extreme positions there is inevitably an opposite trade that can move the market dramatically. The current structure has the Specs holding historically heavy but not extreme short-sold positions.

     Very early Monday, Chicago wheat had spent the session within 2 cents of unchanged. KC HRW was down less than a cent and Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) was up ¼-cent. Pre-opening Paris (the best public price lead for Black Sea wheat price movement) was indicating up 1-3 cents.

     The World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates on Friday provided some market-moving data, with a projected corn yield average of 186.7 bushels per acre versus the August report at 188.8.  “U.S. corn outlook is for greater supplies, larger exports, and a slight reduction in ending stocks.” The December corn contract rose 8 cents to $4.28 per bushel on Friday.  Interestingly, there is a projected 1.3 million acre increase in corn harvested area to 90.0 million acres. If realized, harvested area would be the highest since 1933 and planted area of 98.7 million acres the highest since 1936.” This is not a mandate for a price rally.

     The Sep WASDE reported that, “The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher production, higher crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month.” Beans gained 11 cents on Report Day.

     The numbers for U.S. wheat were projected; “2025/26 unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushel to $5.10 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.” Ugh!

     The Global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 9.0 million tons to 1,078.6 million on larger production from several major exporting countries. Australia is raised 3.5 million tons to 34.5 million on widespread favorable conditions to date as indicated by the latest ABARES forecast. The EU is increased 1.9 million tons to 140.1 million on harvest results and government data. Russia is raised 1.5 million tons to 85.0 million on increases for both winter and spring wheat. Production is also higher for Canada, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan by smaller magnitudes.

     Despite the underlying grim tone of the WASDE on Friday, wheat managed to gain 4½ cents in Chicago, mostly following corn and soybeans. There will be a Small Grains Summary report on September 30th that will tighten up the stats a bit more.

     The trend in wheat prices remains weak/negative. There is no based reason to hold uncovered wheat in storage. Follow plan, make incremental sales on schedule. Watch the historical lows in Chicago and the other major exchanges for either further confirmation of support, or if those lines fail, to accelerate cash sales in order to reduce exposure. If appropriate for your risk tolerance and financial capacity, prepare a re-own strategy for sold wheat to be executed only on confirmed trend change to positive. Call your merchant for discussion and details on the best strategy for your business.

     The present wheat market is gloomy enough for producers, but pleasant for end-users. For wheat growers, this is where it is best to remember the best time to be watching for opportunities is at market extremes. This does not say, “own wheat here”, but instead, “Get ready to own wheat, just not yet.”

     Hang tough, the change will come, just don’t hold blindly onto wheat that is falling in value.

Market Bullets® Friday, September 12, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The session before the monthly World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is nearly always subdued, with movement attributed mostly to position adjustment/squaring. The reports are carefully prepared by the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) of USDA. There are no other nations that have the stats available to us that these guys provide.

     While the USDA's WASDE report is the high church of grain economics, true market intel lies in the heretical scriptures. Beyond the balance sheet, a powerful, often overlooked factor is the hedge fund short position. Recent data shows funds holding a massive 100,000 contracts short in U.S. wheat. Regression analysis suggests that if these shorts were to be covered—a "short squeeze"—wheat prices could see a significant pop. This isn't just a fantasy; it's a powder keg waiting for a match.

The match could be the macroeconomic backdrop. The U.S. dollar, for all its might, has been trending weaker. A falling dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive on the global stage, which could spark a fire under demand and force those shorts to scramble. Keep an eye on the greenback's value, not just the futures board.

     The trade is nearly exclusively focused on Corn and Soybean yield estimates, this time based on survey results. The consensus is that the projected corn yield is likely to be reduced to below the 188.8 bushel per acre figure that emerged in the August WASDE a month ago, resulting in a smaller end of year carryout of inventory. Reuters surveyed a new corn yield at 186.2 versus 188.8 from NASS last month.  

     Soybean production is also expected to be slighty reduced, with average yield guessed at 53.3 bushels/acre compared to 53.6 previous.

     Wheat is a backseat rider, with unchanged as a pre-report guess. The trade guesses are more powerful, very short-term factors than anything else, including weather or government decrees. So the trade usually is content to wait to enter new orders or commitments until the hours or days after the report.

   U.S. wheat stocks are still projected at a six-year high, which is a bearish headwind. However, there's a glimmer of hope: export commitments for the 2025/26 season are a robust 22% ahead of the USDA's forecast. This is a quiet but powerful signal that demand is stronger than the official numbers suggest. It clears a path for the USDA to potentially increase its export forecast in future reports, which would help draw down those burdensome stocks.

     The WASDE will be released at 9:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7) on Friday, September 12, 2025, 11:00 Central. By 10:00 PDT it will be old news, but many traders will take the weekend to consider the impacts of any surprises. Wheat is also secondary in the hierarchy of attention because there is a comprehensive “Small Grains Summary” due out September 30. According to Reuters surveys, the trade is seeing expected numbers at crop year 25/26 carryout at 865 million bushels versus last WASDE 869 million. Global wheat ending stocks are guessed at 261.13 million metric tonnes against 260.08 million tonnes last month.

     Weekly Wheat Export Sales released on Thursday morning were disappointing, with 305,351 metric tonnes in sales for the week ending Sep 4. The surge in sales that was delivering some hope of a better fall marketing season has been tarnished slightly of late.

     Globally, Argentina's wheat crop is rated 79% good to excellent due to persistent rainfall. This is a notable shift and could add to global supply pressure, but the market's focus remains on U.S. demand signals.

     The wheat futures chart is a tempest in a teapot, a Rorschach test for traders. The market has been trapped in a horizontal trend channel for months, a signal of profound uncertainty. It's like a coiled spring, building pressure. The $5.00 level is the gravitational center, the bedrock of support. A break below this would be a collapse, sending prices into a five-year abyss. 

But there's an upward-bound narrative as well. The futures are currently testing resistance at the 552 level. A clean break above this would be like a rocket launch, signaling a positive change in market sentiment. Volume has been high at price tops and low at price bottoms, a classic indicator that strengthens the upward-breakout scenario.

  As always, these things are trackable.  We will continue to monitor and observe, scouting the territory for intelligence that is needed for keeping us from getting flanked.  Check out our post report analysis and more in tomorrow’s commentary.  More to come.     

Market Bullets® Thursday, September 11, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     New “Life of Contract” (LOC) lows are very often followed by New LOC lows. Chicago December contracts have set new LOC lows on Wednesday and now Thursday in very early morning trade. The other major exchanges have been close but have not been as weak. Chicago is the most influential of the majors, so it seems reasonable to expect similar patterns in KC and Minneapolis futures. Paris has set some LOC lows in the past week or two. This is a very short-term perspective, but the technical charts are vulnerable to fund pressure as we approach multi-year lows. They will sell some volume just to test the support. If the buyers are scattered or weak, the computers will find a weak spot and push, opening a door to a still lower range. Right now the market is speaking…”This is a warning; a new phase may be about to begin.”

     There is no malevolence in the wheat trade. The market’s job is to find homes for the harvested wheat supply. The tool for this is lower prices, effectively increasing demand over time. Global demand for wheat is “inelastic”, meaning that price increases or decreases do not cause immediate reactions in consumption, but with enough price change and time, the buyers do respond. Another factor following price declines into new LOC lows is producer reluctance to sell. Ultimately the combination of attractive pricing and smaller cash movement will have the effect of allowing prices to rise…just not yet.

     Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University (HAU) in India has developed a new late-sown wheat variety, “WH 1309”. Its target result is to deliver high yields and be heat tolerant in flowering stages (March in India). It is Not a GMO variety, but was produced through conventional breeding techniques and is considered to be something of a breakthrough. The green revolution continues to thunder, often shifting world wheat production in price-negative ways.
     Given that the labor market statistics have been sloppy lately and the fact that the interest rate markets themselves have already baked in a rate decline, The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its upcoming meeting on September 17, 2025, though a more aggressive 0.50% cut remains a possibility. This rate cut has been somewhat over-anticipated, but it does appear that rates are likely to be cut more often going forward. For wheat producers entering year-end meetings with bankers looming, this is mildly good news. It also reduces the cost of holding wheat in storage just a tid, which shows up in smaller wheat futures carrying charge spreads (a trackable item).

     We have been nagging on the idea of “re-owning” sold wheat using market options or other strategies. It is appropriate to re-state that this means preparing a strategy, but it is not necessary or even a good idea to sell cash wheat and then turn around and spend money on market-based orders right away. It is reasonable to wait until there is a defined change in market tone and action before executing such a trade. It is also extremely important to remind that this kind of action is not for every wheat owner. It requires a certain risk tolerance, implying that additional expenses and potential capital losses, a natural part of owning any kind of wheat market positions, can be absorbed and are understood. Call your merchant for help with this aspect of marketing.

     The trend in wheat is weak. There is no signal to buy or hold. Incremental sales on a set schedule are a decent way to handle the task of liquidating wheat, especially if there is a deliberate criteria for when to hold and when to fold. Check the Box-o-Rox (BOR), a very basic and easy to follow approach to wheat sales decisions. It is also easy to adapt and improve it to suit your own preferences and requirements.

     Stay tuned.   

Market Bullets® Wednesday, September 10, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Dry bulk ocean freight has increased in price by just under double since the first of the year. Ship builders are busy and second-hand vessels are being auctioned at high prices, according to the “Hellenic Shipping News”.  For U.S. wheat, higher freight is a drag on competitiveness, especially into those destinations that are within range of European and Russian/Ukrainian wheat shipping. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-sp-market-heats-up/

     Putin seems more relaxed and confident than usual in the videos and photos of the meeting in China. It looks like he thinks he will win control of Ukraine and at least get rid of that pesky Zelenskyy. In the long run, whether Putin is dominant or not, Russian and Ukrainian wheat will be produced and aggressively sold into global markets, as both need the capital inflows. The market is already gauging this result (part of the reason for lazy and picky importer behavior lately).

     Small traders on forum websites seem to be collectively expecting a rise in Chicago back to $5.30-$5.50 (10-30 cents). These folks work hard for their money, and some of them are quite astute. Their effect on the market is negligible, but sometimes they are right. It just seems a shame that a 10-30 cent rally is the best they can find, but that is the kind of trading environment we are in.     

     The attention of the grain market is focused on corn and soybeans. The featured factors are a Very Large Harvest projections and a tough global market (without Chinese buying) alongside of a key USDA World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates report due out Friday morning at 9:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7), 11:00 Central. Wheat is mostly just along for the ride on this one. Measuring changes in global demand is sometimes a tejus task.

     The wheat price trend shows little energy in either direction. The Box-o-Rox (BOR) chart shows “Execute incremental trades on schedule”. It would require a closing price in the front month of Chicago wheat futures (DEC) over $5.50 to change to “Hold/Accumulate sales”, about 30 cents above current trade.

     Consider re-owning already sold wheat at some point. It’s an attractive but risky endeavor, but even just planning such a move can relieve stress. Call your merchant and work out the math.

     Stay tuned.

PS the Russian Ruble is moving toward weakness.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, September 9, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The Chicago December wheat contract managed to pull back up a few cents from its multi-year lows once again on Monday. Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) was the leader with a plus-12 cent session. Tuesday morning early trade was showing unch to -1 across the wheat complex. The trend remains sideways-to-negative for wheat, but we have become accustomed to a steady reinforcement of the long-standing unbroken lows. The value of such well defined lows is that if they are broken down on a closing basis and confirmed failed, it will be as clear a signal as the market ever shows that the downtrend is still intact. If this does not occur, it is a great base from which to launch a new positive-sloped chartline. Paris 11% milling wheat was indicating minus the equivalent of -3 cents per bushel.  

     No sign of Chinese interest in U.S. wheat or soybeans, as talk has faded from the wire services.

     The September World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates report is due out on Friday, Sep 12 at 9:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UYC-7), 11:00 AM Central. Many eyes will be on the new corn yield estimate versus what that came out last month at 188.8 bushels per acre. After the annual Pro Farmer Corn and Soybean Crop Tour came in at 182.7 and some quality developments, there is some expectations of a downward revision.

     Spring wheat in the 6 key production states is 85% completed as of September 7 versus 84% normally by now.  

     Estimates of Russian and Ukrainian wheat production totals are again being revised slightly upward by private and government agencies. Russian production is projected by SovEcon, a well-known private analyst, to be 3.164 billion bushels with eventual exports to be 1.606 billion. The Russian crop year is similar to that of the U.S., with harvest completed this month. Ukrainian production is expected at 804.7 million bushels by APK-Inform Analytic and Information Agency, an agribusiness consulting agency in the CIS countries.

     Wheat export inspections drooped to 15.6 million bushels at the low end of pre-report estimates for the week just ended. The marketing-year-to-date total is now 10% above last year’s pace.  

     California, the last state in the Union that has not already done so, is set to allow E15 fuel (Ethanol blended) to be sold in the state for the first time, as the state’s Senate has passed the necessary legislation on Wednesday. Governor Newsom is expected to sign the bill into law. This represents a small but not insignificant increase in demand for corn ethanol, a corn price positive development.

     The call is “steady as she goes”. Stay tuned.  

PS - New all-time highs in gold this morning (Tuesday).

Market Bullets® Monday, September 8, 2025: Pre-Dawn`

     It is said that hope springs eternal, and so it must, lest we all surrender to the darkness. For those who are part of the ancient human industry of growing and harvesting wheat, every time the wheat market price shows the slightest inclination to rise, it is at least soothing and can be a great lift of spirit after a long period of doubt and worry. To be a farmer is to be perpetually long wheat, so this cyclical story is part of the life.

     On Monday before Dawn on the U.S. Pacific Coast, heading into the second week of September, the Chicago December wheat futures contract was up 2 cents at 4:30 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7). This may not sound like much, but it is profoundly better than another sloppy, sagging, negative pattern. The Dec is trading very near to long-term (5-year) lows, a low that is the top end of a range that has been tested again and again over the last 18 months or so. If there is an actual failure of that low range, the target range indicated is from approximately $4.50 down to $3.86, another $.70 to $1.34 below today’s trade. The normal seasonal lows are due.

     Having described the bleak and gloomy potential (the market always has this potential), we know that there is not a wheat producer in the world that will react to such a price movement by rushing out to sell, or by adding another 40 acres to the seeding plan, but will instead bring cash wheat sales to the very minimum volume. The market knows this, and at present is not having any difficulty procuring required wheat supplies to feed us all, so there is not great pressure to go that way. This is the basis for the long sideways pattern.      

     The low will come when it comes, but it will not be a secret low. It will be visible to all. We are most interested in the end-user’s response. When a change in trend becomes unavoidably clear, the big speculative funds can be relied upon to put on their buying shoes, fire up and give a boost to prices. This would have the effect of stimulating wheat users at every level to extend their buying programs. The volume of global trade would increase, and prices will rise beyond the recent highs.

     Bear in mind that this is not a recommendation to buy wheat. It is a scenario that will eventually play out as it has for a millenium, leading to a proportional market correction that is a retracement of some ratio of the large downward moves of the last 3 years. Based on an intuitive historical experience of wheat market behavior over the last few decades, the most conservative idea of upward retracement is back to about $6.00 to $6.75, or about $.80 to $1.55 per bushel above today’s trade in Chicago, with proportional moves in all of the wheat complex. There is always more potential. This picture is the anti-grim, the payoff for being faithful, the spring feast after a hard winter.    

     The above may not be much comfort when the prices are so flat for so long. Our current plan is to sell incremental amounts of the annual crop on a set schedule, depending on a reliable trend indicator, setting up a slow-to-sell pattern during an upward price move and a more aggressive selling action during a downward period. There are good ways to enhance this very basic concept and it is never too late to implement such a plan. All we have to do is read the market, decide what the trend is, and then follow it. The trend is negative, the indicator (BoR) says “Execute sales on schedule.” At this point, the BoR has sold 9/12, or about 75% of this year’s crop at an average price well above the current trade.

     Stay tuned, there is always more to come.

Market Bullets® Friday, September 5, 2025: Close

      New all-time high in gold $3,655.50 on Friday, September 5. Anxiety about Seal Team 6? How do lost jobs due to ICE “interventions” count? Golf-ball sized rain in Pennsylvania.

     The U.S. was not invited to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. It does bear examination for understanding of the global economic environment.

     ISW, Sept 5, 2025: “Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and said that it is impossible to conclude a peace agreement with the current Ukrainian government, effectively eliminating the possibility of serious peace negotiations.”

     The holiday delayed Export Sales report on Friday showed disappointing U.S. origin net Wheat sales of 313,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026, down 46 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average and below the lowest of the range of pre-report trade expectations. Wheat export shipments were positive, 50% above the prior four-week average, to 32.7 million bushels. Of the total, the top three were: Mexico as the largest destination, with 7.7 million bushels, followed by Colombia with 3.3 million and Japan at 2.8 million.

     Wheat is seeking a price that will continue the pace of exports, finding homes for homeless wheat. At some point the producers of the world will pull back harder on farm-gate selling (unless their oligarch tells them they must sell wheat now). The trend is clearly still negative. The closing hour on Friday in Chicago wheat was a sloppy mess with the daily low printed in the last 30 minutes amid a 3-cent decline, a net minus ½-cent for the session and a net minus 15-cents for the week.  

     If there is a marketing plan with incremental sales as part of its structure, the “execute incremental sales on schedule” light is flashing red.

     Taking a loan on stored wheat does not protect against this kind of market risk, but it does buy time. The problem is that it may be quite a bit of time before there is a significant improvement in prices. The “capitulation” impulse is strong, but somebody has to be the last seller, just like at the highs there has to be a last buyer. Do not allow your gut to rule! There are better ways. Call your merchant and discuss alternative pricing strategies.

     Stay tuned and do the homework, as the wheat price story will improve at some point, and it will be noticeable on the charts.

Market Bullets® Thursday, September 4, 2025: Close

New Life of Contract (LOC) lows in wheat. Gold took a day off, but is still hovering just below recent new all-time-highs. The Russian Ruble is slowly weakening, but still within “managed” range.

Wheat trend continues lower, at slow pace.

Market Bullets® Thursday, September 4, 2025: AM

     Reports from Australia and Russia suggest production totals are holding steady or even increasing. ABARES estimated the Australian wheat crop at 33.765 million metric tons, while Russia's production and export forecasts continue to rise.

Harvest & Conditions: The US spring wheat harvest is now 72% complete, just ahead of the five-year average. Despite this, crop conditions for other grains are slipping, with US corn ratings down 2 points to 69% good/excellent.

     The US has seen strong export inspections for corn and soybeans, but wheat inspections for the week were down from the previous week. This, combined with low year-on-year exports from the EU and a slower-than-expected pace from Russia, paints a mixed picture for global demand. Tunisia's recent tender for 125,000 metric tons offered a glimmer of demand but didn't provide enough momentum to spark a rally.

     Looking at intermarket influences, corn prices were also lower, down 5 cents on Wednesday, which continues to drag the wheat market down. The bearish sentiment from the bin-busting corn crop and heightened trade tensions with China are creating a headwind for the entire grain complex.

     The path forward remains in a negative trend. We are once again leaning into the long-term lows that have defined the sideways channel for over a year. While the technical "floor" has held so far, the constant testing of this level is a reminder of its fragility. For now, the dominant forces are the bearish fundamentals of strong global supply and weak overall demand. We must remain disciplined and stay on plan, using scheduled incremental sales to manage risk rather than trying to anticipate the exact bottom. The market needs a major shift in perspective to overcome the current weakness, and there is no sign of that yet.

     Thursday morning’s trade was bleeding into new lows. This constant grinding out minor new lows, sometimes as little as ¼-¾-cents per bushel, can add up to technical chart pattern damage that obscures proper recognition of trend changes, in this case either reversal upward or acceleration downward. There are few price levels below the present one that have enough historical weight to represent real buying support to marketers or traders. The big spec funds have no motivation to buy back previously sold contracts, and producers are very reluctant sellers at present farm-gate prices, which is eroding the market’s attention span.

     Stay tuned. Stay on plan. The trend is “maturing” but requires something new to rationalize a buying pattern.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, September 2, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The trade returns to their desks after a warm 3-day, Labor Day weekend to find post-midnight Tuesday wheat trade giving back the mediocre gains of last Friday in Chicago, down 7 alongside KC and Minneapolis HRS contracts each down 6 on harvest pressure. Paris 11% milling wheat was indicating steady.     

     For the post-harvest season, our favorite bellwether December futures contracts are the benchmarks for U.S. wheat, reflecting post-harvest supply realities and early export demand. Late summer into early fall usually sees volatility as global buyers lock in supply and weather risks linger in the Southern Hemisphere, but this year has been tunneled into a narrow range resting on long-term lows. Normal seasonal lows tend to be established during August through November, especially in periods of tight global stocks or geopolitical tension, both of which are present today.  

     For December Chicago wheat prices: After peaking near $5.93 last June, the Dec retraced to the $5.24–$5.26 shelf, where buyers stepped in a couple of times to push up to about $5.93 to $6.00, so a 70-cent price zone was repeatedly maintained.

     We are now seeing another verification of that same $5.25 level (68-cents below the June high), which has become the marketer’s warning track with a serious indicator of market weakness on a price decline below the key psychological trigger of $5.00, last visited in mid-August.

     Our friends, the big speculative Funds appear to be slowly rotating back into grains. Equities are a bit wobbly and inflation hedges still have strong appeal. Slow country movement of wheat has been keeping Commercial entities holding onto historically heavy net long-bought futures positions (purchased to cover cash sale delivery obligations while still acquiring the physical wheat to ship) U.S. wheat export commitments are surging, up 25 million bushels and expected to continue at the strongest pace since 2020/21. HRW sales to Nigeria, Mexico, and Bangladesh are about the only statistic lifting sentiment. Eventually this healthy movement will begin to support the nearby cash markets, as there are barges and vessels to fill.

     If the December $5.20-$5.17 zone breaks with volume on the daily chart, selling pressure will rise. Meanwhile the market will continue to gnaw away at U.S. wheat supplies without any brass marching band accompaniment, unless the Tariff Parade calls for a cadence and tune. Even an insignificant token purchase by China would improve the market tone. Wheat is still in a role as a geopolitical hedge and inflation buffer.

     Make incremental sales as planned. There is no buy signal lit on the board and the funds are unmotivated. Stay in touch with your merchant and rehearse whatever re-owning plans make sense to you to reserve on standby until the trend changes from its current flat-negative to positive.

Stay tuned

Market Bullets® Friday, August 29, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Thursday’s wheat trade was looking forward to a 3-day weekend before the kids go back to school, with markets closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day in the U.S.

     Friday’s very early hours in the wheat trade showed Chicago unchanged to up a few cents on light volume. KC Hard Red Winter was up as much as 3 cents, with Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) futures unchanged.

     The positive session in Chicago on Thursday put the weekly net at plus 1¾-cents for December delivery contracts with one more session to go. KC was at minus 3¾-cents, Minneapolis HRS at minus 12¾ was the weakest. Paris milling wheat was down the equivalent of about 4 cents per bushel and a new low reaching back to mid-March of 2024.

     Most of the trade was likely focused on end-of-month position balancing and some short-covering. Volume was low. In the absence of geo-political surprises, Friday is unlikely to hold the trade’s attention.   

     The week was not a decisive one, but another in which the long-term lows have held (at least in U.S. exchanges). The chart pattern remains negative, but at a very low angle of attack. The Box-o-Rox indicator is firmly in “Execute scheduled sales” mode.

     U.S. Wheat sales were 579,800 metric tonnes, fulfilling expectations (400,000–700,000). The trend in sales remains firm; 519,000 metric tonnes last week and 523,000 last year. This is a positive fundamental, where we hang our “Hope-Hat” for the moment.

     Argus Media, a privately held UK-registered company focused on agricultural commodity markets, announced Thursday morning an estimated 2025/26 French ending soft wheat stocks figure of 4 million metric tonnes, their largest carryout in twenty years. Exports are projected at 8 million tonnes, up from only 3.5 million in ‘24/25. The 2025 French harvest is pegged at 33.4 million metric tonnes, a 30% recovery from the rain-damaged 2024 crop. The report contained no surprises.

      Stats Canada sees this season’s wheat crop to be about 1.1% lower this year versus last year on 1.306 billion bushels, slightly below the average pre-report guess, not a market-moving report.

     Interest rates dropped during Thursday’s trade, with 2-Year T-notes at their lowest since the first week of April, 2025.

     The trade desks will be thinly staffed by the time we hit mid-session Friday.

     Have a good weekend. Play a little softball, go get a cold drink, sit in the shade and eat, then take a nap. Mmmmm!

Market Bullets® Thursday, August 28, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The wheat complex is waiting: Chinese interest in wheat is secondary to beans, spring wheat harvest is over the halfway hump, so the market knows there will be a period of “easy” cash sales. There is no motivation for buyers to stretch bids or shipment periods. The hand-to-mouth season continues.

     …Looking for a continuation of positive U.S. weekly sales numbers in Thursday’s report.

     The U.S. Dollar Index is down about 9.5% for the 6-month period. For August to date the index is -1.77%. The 2-Year T-Note is at its lowest yield since early April, 2025.

     Canadian wheat stats will be refreshed Thursday morning.

     Online wheat forums showing little enthusiasm…quiet small specs = caution flag.

     The Ukrainian Agribusiness Forum (UAC) estimates the country’s wheat crop for 2025 at 21.8 million metric tonnes versus 22.7 million tonnes last year and below the 22 million tonne August estimate from USDA. 

     Australian wheat planting started in April/May in dry conditions, but they have had good rains for the top growing regions. The crop has improved from initial outlooks.

     The Argentinian crop went in early but shows very good condition so far.  Aussie harvest starts in October and runs all the way to February.

     There is coffee-talk is about soybeans and China. If China does not buy any U.S. origin beans now, the southern hemisphere will be supplying them and will likely run out at some point. Intuition says China will appear in the U.S. market as soon as there are trade resolutions in place. According to Reuters, their head Trade Envoy, Li Chenggang, is in Washington D.C. this week, but not at the U.S. side’s request and not as part of a formal negotiation. It’s plausible that this is a preliminary trip at “Deputy” level to set the tone for more formal meetings later. Wheat will be on the table at some point, but is a secondary concern.   

     The net trade rumble is quiet, but steady. Everyone knows that there is a seasonal low due (we have spoken about almost nothing else for weeks). The upside of this wheat market is dependent on trade agreements and surplus wheat being cleaned up on demand based on low prices, a time-consuming activity.

     The change in tone and price direction will show up on the charts before the fundamentals are clearly formed to support it.

     Stay tuned.  

Market Bullets® Wednesday, August 27, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     No surprises

     Wednesday morning’s very early hours of wheat trade showed the major exchanges all in the red, from -2 to -4 cents on moderate volume.

     The U.S. Spring wheat harvest is over halfway done, with the crop still being assessed at 49% good-to-excellent versus 69% last year at this point. Canadian spring wheat is also about average in crop condition.

     Word at the coffee shop is that Egypt has managed to  purchase some 400,000 metric tonnes of wheat in the several weeks since floating their massive 3.8 million tonne tender. Prices are cited in the $265 to $270 per metric tonne range based on “C&F” (Cost and Freight).

     Russia’s IKAR has raised their 2025 Russian wheat production estimate by 500,000 tonnes, now 86.0 million metric tones, and 2025/26 exports up from 42.5 to 43.0 million tonnes, also.

     Gold is sneaking toward it’s old highs.

     The trend is negative/weak, but the trade is also being respectful of the multi-year lows. The buyers are either hiding or not ready. Producers are parsing out cash sales as slowly as possible. Steady as she goes, Cap’n.

     Stay close, it’s safer.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, August 26, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The wheat market continues to behave like a mule in deep mud—lots of motion, not much progress. Chicago December eked out a 2¾-cent gain on Monday, KC HRW added 1½, and Minneapolis HRS stayed flat. Paris milling wheat was up a hair.

     A real reversal will need volume, a story, and more than a week of short-covering. As for volume, Monday’s session totaled only about a third of the average trade volume of the last 20 sessions back to July 28. This is not the mark of a market with conviction. The story that dominated the wires was the export shipments report from USDA as of August 21, showing a multi-year high, more than double the previous week and 71% above last year same week. The cumulative exports marketing-year-to-date are now 10.99% ahead of this week last year. This has become the tip-o-the-spear for U.S. wheat fundamentals. There is a trend toward good export consumption of U.S. wheat, yet the market shrugs and mopes. It could be that the massive corn crop, plus decent cash movement out of the country at the end of northern hemisphere winter wheat harvest has obscured the healthy streak in the numbers. It is certainly the right kind of data upon which to build a case. A week or two of short-covering may burn off the fog, so all we have to do is wait for some random headline to spark.

     Until then, we will stay deliberate and avoid chasing ghosts. Global “Stocks-to-Usage” ratios remain at multi-decade lows, which comes up often in the coffee talk and continues to nag the big specs. At some point, they’ll want to lock in profits, and that could spark reluctant volume from sidelined buyers.

     At the bottom line, there are no producers anywhere in the world that are happy enough with current farm gate wheat prices to cut loose with big sales. There is a general expectation of a seasonal low, sometime, somehow. It may take some time, so this is not the time to become morose or inattentive. It will be clear on the charts, so we watch the charts! Even a nice, 50-cent pop all by itself would be refreshing!

    Pro Farmer summarizes the U.S. corn crop at 16.204 billion bushels with an average yield at 182.7 bushels per acre, quite a bit lower than USDA’s last WASDE estimate of 188.8, but still a heavy load on the corn market price. The reaction to this bit of fundamental data has been muted, as corn has actually come up about 20 cents from its lowest price since August of last year. There is likely to be at least a test of that low in the next couple of weeks, but the 1st step of a healthy pattern is nearly in place for corn…encouraging in the face of a giant crop and the absence of China in the trade picture.

     There are some new puzzle pieces on the table. If you have the attitude and the risk tolerance for such things, it may be a good idea to look at wheat sales already on the books with an eye toward re-owning. This is definitely not for everyone, but the exercise of constructing such a plan doesn’t take long and can be exhilarating. We call it a plan because there is not enough reason to execute such a bold action yet. We just don’t want to have to run back to the truck to get the Bullets when the game shows up!

     Stay tuned. Stay with the program, track the trend.  

MarketBullets® Monday, August 23, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Lots of hard, straining work, but only small net results in wheat contracts for the week ended August 22, 2025. Chicago managed a gain of ¼-cent in the December contract, amid the effects of the normal last-half month trade rollover from September to December. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat was the weakest of the three major U.S. exchanges, with a minus 8 cents and Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) gained a penny. Paris 11% milling wheat was up the equivalent of a nickel. Overall, a market statement of equilibrium.

     Monday’s post-midnight trade had Chicago quietly up about 3 cents, KC up 2 and Minneapolis unch.

     Chicago is trading 30 cents below its 60-day “Box-o-Rox (BoR)” moving average, still in “Execute incremental sales on schedule” mode. If the December Chicago price manages to penetrate up through the $5.43 price, it will constitute a warning of trend change, but not a strong one. The BoR is working around $5.59 December. This is the kind of pattern that is sexy enough to cause producers to hold and speculators to “buy early” but has no fundamental underpinnings and little technical chart logic as support. The trend is still lower.

     Every new uptrend has to start somewhere, usually with an unexpected upward spike on decent volume. A confirmed change in trend will be visible and will have at least some fundamental story to stand upon, but it may require more than 30 cents and a week of short-covering by the funds to be considered reliable.

     It is bothering the big specs that the global “Stocks-to-Usage” ratio has been at multi decade lows for a while now. At some point they will want to book what profits they have open, which will trigger some other reluctant buyers to make volume.  

     Meanwhile, Argentina continues to develop back into a global wheat origin, a position they gave up years ago by overtaxing and limiting wheat exports. Their new libertarian government seems determined to release the kraken once again, as they once dominated southern hemisphere wheat sales prices. The fundamental global wheat production pattern has shifted, with several large new entities that were not a factor in the 1980’s and 90’s; Russia, Ukraine, the E.U. and India are now all net exporters most years.

     The market is full of wheat today, but global consumption continues to increase. For now, we must market wheat as if there was never going to be another “big rally”. This means deliberate and planned sales tied to price movement. We like to express that as being sales-patient with an uptrend, and sales-aggressive with a downtrend.

Natural gas prices are challenging low side of an 18-month upward channel. For wheat producers, this is a factor in the formation of anhydrous ammonia prices, as Nat gas is about 60% to 70% of the cost of production.

This stuff is trackable. Let’s track it!

Market Bullets® Thursday, August 21, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Thursday morning’s early trade had Chicago up another nickel, pushing the December futures contract to $5.34, a full 23 cents above the September delivery price (the equivalent of 7½ cents per month above immediate delivery in return for selling and carrying the wheat until mid-December physical delivery). This market structure is normal during an abundance of wheat available for sale, as is the response of the market to incentivize delaying delivery.

     For a simplistic look at the spread(s): Bear in mind that this scenario is applicable to Soft Red Winter wheat. The present ”carrying charge” structure extends across all of the delivery contracts through 2026, with a total of $.74 ($.06 per bushel per month) for carrying wheat in storage for delivery a year from now. The net cost of storage and interest for that period may be something like $.27 for interest cost plus $.36 per bushel for storage expense, leaving about $.11 net (taxable) gain, not a lifestyle changer. It might work a little better for home-stored wheat, heck, what could go wrong!?

     For a more practical, short-run scenario, $.23 per bushel versus a storage and interest cost of $.16 leaves about $.07 per bushel net for a sale made now for delivery in December, still not a heavy gain, but enough to ponder.

     Ask your merchant about Hedge-to-Arrive (HTA).

     In a little slice of the Pro Farmer Annual Crop Tour. Nebraska’s corn yields were assessed at 179.5 bushels per acre, beating 173.2 last year and the 3-year average of 166.3. The general impression so far is that the crop will be a large one, but still there is not much evidence that USDA’s estimate of an average 188.8 per acre is on target. The tour ends on Thursday evening.

Andre Sizov at SovEcon (Private crop analyst specializing in Russia/Black Sea area stats) has bumped his projection of Russia’s wheat crop to 85.4 million metric tonnes, a small, .2 million tonne rise. For the most part, last winter’s speculations about Russian wheat crop failure have proven to be weak soup.

     US wheat prices are competitive on the world market, which is the only light shining on the price.

     The December Chicago futures contract, now the “Front Month” for most traders and marketers, is about 12 cents above the lowest close of the week on last Tuesday. The “rally” is apparently based on short-covering by large traders as positions are re-balanced or rolled over into later months as the September contract begins it’s slide into delivery and expiration. There are six more trading sessions beyond today’s that will reach First Notice Day for September deliveries.

     The technical damage done by eroding prices over recent weeks will take some time to be absorbed. The charts will now reflect December prices more than 20 cents above the September, a psychological boost if nothing else. The trend is still not positive. Stay on plan. Make the incremental sales on time. To reduce anxiety, draw up a re-owning plan to be executed in case of an uptrend.  Do not execute until conditions are definably more positive!

     Stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Wednesday, August 20, 2025: Pre-Dawn

    December Chicago Wheat Futures closed lower Tuesday, slipping to $5.20¾, down $.04½ on the day. This marks a continued slide, pushing new technical lows, teasing and frustrating traders looking for a trendline. The market failed to hold support near the $5.04 level and the soon-to-expire September contract printed a new low at $4.97½, another creeping almost invisible low in a contract that is about to disappear.

     Volume was light, typical for late August, but the lack of conviction on attempted rallies signals that funds remain net sellers. Open interest ticked lower, hinting at long liquidation, perhaps even capitulation, rather than fresh short positioning. Traders are achingly sensitive to the $4.95–$5.00 zone; a decisive break below which could trigger stops and accelerate the slide toward the 5-year lows just below $4.93½.

     Chart-wise, wheat is stuck below virtually any sensible moving average, with no clear bullish reversal pattern in sight. Until we see the inevitable shift in momentum and tone, through export surprises or other large fundamental support, technical traders must follow the trend, fade rallies and lean into support.

     The evolving Russia–Ukraine peace narrative fairly reeks with waste of time. Surprises certainly are always possible, but there is no intuitive basis for real anticipation of market-positive results. This sense of bitterness needs airing. On August 18, U.S. President Trump hosted Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders in Washington, signaling plans for a trilateral summit with Russian President Putin. While Trump claimed Putin agreed to meet, Moscow has yet to confirm, and Russian airstrikes intensified immediately following the talks.

     The EU, meanwhile, announced its 19th sanctions package targeting Russia’s war economy, expected to roll out in September. European leaders emphasized unity and the need for “lasting peace,” but concrete commitments remain elusive. Ukraine continues to push for NATO-style security guarantees, while Russia resists any Western military presence near its borders. Believe it or not, this is wheat price positive!

     Some of the reason for the protracted grinding on wheat price lows for months, is that traders remain cautious. Extending shipping schedules or financing large transactions seems very aggressive in this environment. Unlikely as it may seem, Ukraine’s export competitiveness is rising amid strong harvest projections and the effect of Russia’s drought-hit southern regions on the market is diminishing.

     So, as the sun sets on another trading day, wheat’s still feeling the weight—slipping a bit more down that dusty trail, with no clear sign of a turnaround. The charts look tired, the volume’s thin, and the big money’s keeping their boots off the gas. Folks watching that $4.95 line are holding their breath. Meanwhile, the world stage is hosting its usual dance—handshakes in Washington, fireworks in Eastern Europe, and a whole lot of talking without much walking.

But out here, we know the drill. Markets ebb and flow like the Palouse wind—sometimes gentle, sometimes sharp enough to rattle the barn tin. So keep your head down, watch the signs, and wait for the next gust to shift the grain.

     The change is going to come.      

Market Bullets® Tuesday, August 19, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     According to a Farm Progress article Monday night, “…there’s no end in sight to the ongoing downturn. Farmers should “try to build a plan where you can withstand low returns for the next four to five years.”…a quote from U of Iowa ag economist Gary Schnitkey.” The discussion in the article was about corn and soybeans, but the price of wheat is making slender margins, too. We hate to harangue, but the control of price risk in a period when there is limited room for inefficient marketing is in the time and focus spent on tracking and allocating sales across time. This is a year where a 3% to 5% improvement in marketing results can make a big difference. You are not alone. Talk to your merchant about alternative ways to price the stuff. Make sure you have your crop insurance set up correctly, and watch the market patterns. It’s a lot like hunting.

     There will still be “easy” wheat for sale from harvest for some weeks to come. The market knows this very well. It’s already built into prices (maybe a bit excessively) and the trade is already seeking the next factor. We will see rallies, but they are likely to hit levels attractive to sellers very quickly.

     There is still downside potential in this market, so incremental sales on a schedule can end up looking very smart. If the direction changes, it will be clearly visible. The idea of a “re-owning” plan is sexy in any environment where sales have to be made at ugly levels to keep cash flow going. We have heard all the talk about how “speculative” that effort can be, and it does indeed carry risk, but if done appropriately is often far better than taking the same risk with uncovered wheat in the bin. It is worth the deliberate study and decision process time to see if it fits.

     The Pro-Farmer crop tour began on Monday. Results are due out Friday. First reports show, “The 83 corn samples collected generated an average yield calculation of 174.2 bu. per acre, up 11.3% from last year’s tour and 21% ahead of the three-year tour average. The 2020 Crop Tour through South Dakota generated an average corn yield of 179.24 and 2018 came in at 178.01. So it’s a very good crop, but probably not a record.” USDA’s call in the last WASDE report showed a projected 188.8 bushels per acre average for the entire corn crop.  

     The 6-state spring wheat crop is overall 50% good-to-excellent versus last year at 73%, but the range is all the way from 5% good/excellent in Montana, and 12% in Washington to 80% in Minnesota and 70% in North Dakota (the biggest monkey in the tree). 36% of the spring-planted wheat crop is already in the bin.

Marketing year-to-date wheat exports now total 4.811 million metric tonnes (176.79 million bushels), 3.69% ahead of the same period last year.

     There are elements of price-positive factors visible in the wheat market environment, but this has been true for months. When any market sneaks up on long-term lows a penny at a time, never showing conviction, it is a sign of exhaustion. The buyers and end-users are hand-to-mouth and have no reason to change their pattern. The producers and sellers always have harvest bills to pay and will move some wheat into the channel for that purpose. The market is well aware of all of this. The call has to be “Steady” for now. Seasonal lows are due, but that fact has never stopped a market from making yet another low.

     We will just have to watch and see what two of the top five big wheat exporters do about their relationship. Whatever they cobble together, it remains true that the next few years will be wheat expansion years for them both, even with alternative crops paying better than wheat.

Stay tuned. If you hold a position in wheat, let it be with the trend not against it!  

Market Bullets® Friday, August 15, 2025: Close

     We see no wheat buy signal here. There is a temptation to buy. There are patterns that suggest a large seasonal low, but no confirmation. Buying (or holding onto a long-bought position) on a hunch can be a very expensive way to test your gut instincts. Holding cash wheat in storage can also be a terrible speculation. You may save commissions, fees, or even taxes, but the downside can dwarf these things. That is why a marketing plan, with schedules and limits, constructed thoughtfully in a cool, quiet and low stress period, has the power to prevent large impulsive errors later. There is no trader or producer that is immune to market pressure at extremes.     

     There are almost certainly some mechanical trading systems that indicate a better risk/reward ratio for owning wheat than for being short-sold, as even among the powerful, well-funded, sophisticated spec trading funds it is a two-sided market. For every open contract there is both a buyer and a seller.

Certainty is not the goal. It is probability that allows us to plan. The future-time market is not subject to measurement, but past data allows us to identify current trends and define a channel, although sometimes it seems like a dollar-store flashlight beam under water (still better than pitch-black darkness).

     Trend ID is always a work in progress. The marvelous thing is that we do not have to be right all the time to be successful. We just have to make course corrections always in harmony with our objectives. 

     Paris SEP-DEC spread went inverted (Immediate delivery periods paying higher prices for wheat than later) for its first time since January of 2024, a sign of a firm spot cash wheat market.

     Australia’s Clear Grain Exchange is an independent, online grain trading platform operating in Australia. It’s stated mission is to provide a secure and transparent marketplace for growers and buyers to trade grains, oilseeds, and pulses. The companies most recent comment on the domestic Australian wheat market says, “Bids retreated but traded prices held - Buyer bids retreated generally but growers held their offers and buyers matched in many instances.”     https://www.cleargrain.com.au/about

     Very early AM trade on Monday, August 18 was slightly negative, with Chicago SRW wheat off about 2-3 cents. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) was only off about 1 cent in quiet trade. The Chicago trading ranges have been very narrow, less than 8 cents from high to low) during the three sessions previous to Monday’s start. The price of the soon-to-expire September futures contracts is trading so near to long-term lows that the market’s attention is tightly focused on if that level will reveal enough buying energy to hold. All of the markets are skeptical about any potential for Russian/Ukrainian resolution, but it will be interesting if anything changes. There is little else in the news mix that bears any positive price-moving power, so it is a chart-reader’s game for the moment.  

     The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) reports showed large trading funds in Chicago adding over 8,000 contracts to their net short-sold positions as of August 12. Their computer systems apparently are still showing negative price-slopes.

     Stay focused. Dedicated marketing efforts will pay well this year.   

Market Bullets® Friday, August 15, 2025: Close

     We see no wheat buy signal here. There is a temptation to buy. There are patterns that suggest a large seasonal low, but no confirmation. Buying (or holding onto a long-bought position) on a hunch can be a very expensive way to test your gut instincts. Holding cash wheat in storage can also be a terrible speculation. You may save commissions, fees, or even taxes, but the downside can dwarf these things. That is why a marketing plan, with schedules and limits, constructed thoughtfully in a cool, quiet and low stress period, has the power to prevent large impulsive errors later. There is no trader or producer that is immune to market pressure at extremes.     

     There are almost certainly some mechanical trading systems that indicate a better risk/reward ratio for owning wheat than for being short-sold, as even among the powerful, well-funded, sophisticated spec trading funds it is a two-sided market. For every open contract there is both a buyer and a seller.

Certainty is not the goal. It is probability that allows us to plan. The future-time market is not subject to measurement, but past data allows us to identify current trends and define a channel, like a dollar-store flashlight beam under water.

     Trend ID is always a work in progress. The marvelous thing is that we do not have to be right all the time to be successful. We just have to make course corrections always in harmony with our objectives. 

     Paris SEP-DEC spread went inverted (Immediate delivery periods paying higher prices for wheat than later) for its first time since January of 2024, a sign of a firm spot cash wheat market.

     Australia’s Clear Grain Exchange is an independent, online grain trading platform operating in Australia. It’s stated mission is to provide a secure and transparent marketplace for growers and buyers to trade grains, oilseeds, and pulses. The companies most recent comment on the domestic Australian wheat market says, “Bids retreated but traded prices held - Buyer bids retreated generally but growers held their offers and buyers matched in many instances.”     https://www.cleargrain.com.au/about

     Very early AM trade on Monday, August 18 was slightly negative, with Chicago SRW wheat off about 2-3 cents. Mineapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) was only off about 1 cent in quiet trade. The Chicago trading ranges have been very narrow, less than 8 cents from high to low) during the three sessions previous to Monday’s start. The price of the soon-to-expire September futures contracts is trading so near to long-term lows that the market’s attention is tightly focused on if that level will reveal enough buying energy to hold. All of the markets are skeptical about any potential for Russian/Ukrainian resolution, but it will be interesting if anything changes. There is little else in the news mix that bears any positive price-moving power, so it is a chart-reader’s game for the moment.  

     Stay focused. Dedicated marketing efforts will pay well this year.   

Market Bullets® Friday, August 15, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The wheat complex was leading toward a narrow range again Friday, and seems likely to end the week with futures down about 10-12 cents in Chicago and KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat contracts for September delivery. Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) was shaping for a 1 to 2 cents per bushel decline on the week or less as Paris milling wheat was indicating a weekly net of -5-6 cents USD equivalent.

     Wheat is trading at a steady pace, ahead of last year’s cumulative totals.

     Russian wheat production remains in a fundamental decline, not so much due to war, but to shifting margins and better prospects from other crops than wheat, according to Andre Sizov, the voice of SovEcon, a private analyst that specializes in Black Sea wheat market perspective.

     There are no factors dominating the present wheat market more than the weight of harvest supplies. The end-users are very comfortable buying hand-to-mouth, seeing no threat of shortage or price increases in the near term. This is likely to be the case until at least the end of the north American wheat harvest, also when the corn crop is more defined, setting the overall supply of food and feed for the season.

     The trend for wheat marketers is flat to negative, with our Box-o-Rox indicator showing a solid “Execute Planned Sales on Schedule” signal, unchanged since July 25th. There is no buy signal or reason to re-own any previously sold bushels, and any prepared “Re-owning Plan” should be on stand-by only, remembering that there are two main ways to speculate on wheat prices: in the bin, or on paper. There are advantages of each approach and complexities of using “paper wheat” positions to replace physical wheat. Anyone considering this idea should consult their merchant about the details to be aware of the risks.

     Stay tuned, the market is quiet, but downside risk still exists.     

Market Bullets® Thursday, August 14, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     As we type furiously away at 3:00 AM Pacific Time (UTC-7), the wheat, corn and soybean markets are all drowsy. Up or down a couple of cents. It’s something like when we went to the National Zoo on a Saturday morning (many years ago). I wanted to see roaring lions, slithering snakes, swinging monkeys…but there was almost no sign of life, all asleep. The tiger got up and we eagerly watched to see him jump on the rocks…but he just stretched, lay back down and sighed. They all might as well have been made of wax. We were told, “You should have been here yesterday!” The character of wild creatures is often obscured by the mundane, yet we know that they can indeed rise up and be terrifying or fascinating by turns, but today? The wheat monkeys are resting. Dull… what’s for lunch?

     The wheat market is resting firmly on the low side of the long-term channel. There have been several tests of these low points, with microscopic break-throughs, but no decisive decision-making thrusts. It is clear we need time for the massive creature that is the demand side of the wheat market to chew through available supplies. No-one believes that the globe is about to run out of wheat anywhere. There are surely starving people by the million, but their problems are not due to shortages in the producing regions. That comes more under the Political Foolishness Department. But we digress. The wheat price is at what must be called “fair value”, a price that brings just enough supply to meet the demand and no more. It is really a buyer’s market, and we can see that in the expanded export numbers being reported and forecast by USDA. That is the real answer. Lots of consumption. Eat that wheat!

     There was only one real surprise in the World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates report yesterday. The USDA August corn yield estimate was a massive one yesterday at 188.8 bushels per acre, blowing the doors off the average trade estimate by 4.5 bushels per acre, the highest trade estimate by 0.7 bushels, the previous record final yield (last year’s) by 9.5 bpa, and the previous record print for any single month (Sept 2024) by 5.2 bpa. This kind of price-negative overload in any of the three major U.S. grain markets has a sympathetic effect. The calculators of trade desks across the globe are heating up, with a potential to weigh on wheat for quite some time.

     Private Russian-based analyst SovEcon raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast yesterday from 83.3 to 85.2 million tonnes, on “increased planted acreage”.

EU institutional data suggests that 2025/26 soft wheat exports have totaled 56% lower than last year-to-date.

     A buyer’s market elicits this tactic: Jordan issued another international tender for up to 120k tonnes of optional origin milling wheat after passing yesterday, for Oct-Nov shipment.

     Paris 11% milling wheat contract prices have stabilized in a pattern slightly stronger than KC Hard Red Winter. The French contract is the only active and liquid contract anywhere near the Black Sea market area, so is pressed into service as a proxy. It seems highly unlikely that the “Talks” between Trump and Putin will yield much. In any case, resolution of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine is more likely to be a long-term price-negative for wheat.

     Stay tuned. Stretch and sigh. Feeding time is coming.

Market Bullets® Wednesday, August 13, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Let's take a step back from the daily grind of WASDE reports, technical chart patterns, and the ever-present specter of fund positions. We’ve been discussing the market's behavior—its "hesitation," its "teasers," and its "frustrating" tendencies. We've talked about the chart's "voice" and the discipline required to "stay on plan." But what about the person reading these words? What about the person trying to make sense of it all?

The wheat market, in its current state, is not just a battle between supply and demand, or a contest between longs and shorts. It's also a psychological battlefield. We, as marketers, are constantly grappling with a host of cognitive biases, those mental shortcuts that our brains take which can lead us to less-than-optimal decisions.

Think about the "long sideways channel" we've been observing for a year. It's a testament to the power of the status quo bias. We become comfortable with the current state of affairs, with the predictable baseline. We see it as a "backstop" and a "sign of strength." But this comfort can be a trap. It can lead us to resist necessary changes to our marketing plans, to hesitate when the market whispers of a shift. We hold on, waiting for a breakout, because that's what we've become used to.

     Then there's the confirmation bias. We scour the news and the data for anything that supports our existing belief, whether it's that the market is "about to break higher" or that it "has further to fall." We see strong export sales and think, "Ah, see? The low is in." We see a high corn yield and a lower wheat price, and we think, "Told you so, nothing's changed." We actively ignore or downplay contradictory evidence, like the still-large fund short positions or the stubborn negative trend.

And finally, the most dangerous of all, the loss aversion bias. We feel the pain of a potential loss far more intensely than the pleasure of a potential gain. This can manifest in holding onto a losing position too long, hoping for a mythical "come back" that never arrives, simply because we cannot bear to realize the loss. We become paralyzed by the fear of making the "wrong" decision, even when our own analysis tells us a different story.

     The market's job is to efficiently allocate supplies, as we've said before. Our job, as marketers, is to efficiently allocate our supplies to the market. This isn't just about reading charts and reports; it's about reading ourselves. It's about recognizing these psychological traps and having a methodical, disciplined plan to navigate them. It’s about taking action not because we feel the market is "near a low," but because our plan, built on logic and not emotion, dictates it. The first step to conquering the market is to conquer our own minds. And right now, with the market teetering on a fragile edge, that philosophical pause for self-reflection might be the most valuable marketing tool we have.  Stick around, more to come.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, August 12, 2025: PM (Post-WASDE)

     The World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates produced only one mild surprise. Corn yields were posted at 188.8 bushels per acre. Most pre-report trade estimates centered on about 184.3 bpa.  

 Wheat:

• Supplies:  Down 2 million bushels to 1,927 million, on late season reductions. 

• Production: Smaller harvested area partially offset by a higher yield.

• Domestic Use: Lowered by 5 million bushels due to reduced food use. 

• Exports: Increased by another 25 million bushels to 875 million (+25 mil in July WASDE), driven by strong early sales. 

• Ending Stocks: Lower, down 21 million bushels to 869 million. 

• Season-average farm price: Reduced by $0.10 per bushel to $5.30.

·         World carryout for wheat was down 1.44 million metric tonnes to 260.08 million.

     USDA trimmed the US wheat production total by just 2 mbu to 1.927 billion bushels in this morning’s Crop Production report. Winter wheat was raised by 10 mbu to 1.355 bbu, with spring wheat down 20 mbu. For the balance sheet, the food use total was trimmed by 5 mbu, with exports hiked by 25 mbu. New crop carryout as trimmed by 21 mbu to 869 mbu. World carryout for wheat was down 1.44 MMT to 260.08 MMT.

     This morning’s USDA Crop Production report showed the national corn yield at 188.8 bpa this morning, which was above the trade ideas of 184.3. Production was pegged at 16.742 billion bushels, up 1.037 bbu from last month’s WASDE total. This, if realized, will be a bin-buster, over 16.7 billion bushels. Some 2.1 million planted acres were added, making 97.3 million acres of corn

     Wheat prices followed corn downward to print a very small new low at $5.03¼, less than a cent below the previous, August 6 low in the soon-to-expire September delivery contract. This is not a “decisive” low, just a teaser and point of frustration for technical traders. For marketers determined to be patient while using the lows as a trip-wire, there is no “hold” signal with even a hint of any trend change. The wheat market remains negative and will require a visible shift in  behavior to challenge the dominant fund short-sold positions. No help from corn, but winter wheat harvest is over 90% completed.

     Stay on plan. It is common that the first rally from such long-term, profound lows will be somewhat  violent. It is not a good plan to buy or even hold “because the low is near” (sometimes called by traders, “Catching a falling knife”). When the seasonal low is in, there will be  an identifiable pattern.

More this PM…

Market Bullets® Tuesday, August 12, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Here comes “The WASDE”! 9:00 AM Tuesday morning, the market will pause to absorb new estimates of crop production, sales and ending stocks inventories for the crop year ending May 31, 2026.

     This WASDE will not be focused on wheat. The trade is heavily interested in the size of the corn harvest this fall. The report will hinge on assumed corn yield, with current ideas that the pending crop is going to be quite large. Soybeans will also be in the spotlight, with the absence to date of China as a buyer of U.S. origin beans. There are hopes that pending trade talks between Presidents Trump and Xi will yield some beans sales guaranteed. The WASDE does not take any of this kind of speculative thinking into consideration. The numbers they will bring Tuesday will be partly based on surveys and partly on satellite assessment of crop health.

      The wheat trade will be looking at crop size estimates given late harvest statistics. The anticipation of surprises gets smaller and smaller as the season progresses. Ending stocks factor in some demand calculations, which already did show in last month’s WASDE via an increase of projected exports. Surprises in wheat numbers for this WASDE are much smaller than for corn and soybeans.

     The very early trade on Tuesday morning had Chicago wheat down 4-6 cents, nearing that recent low at about $5.04, a long-term low, which if penetrated in any kind of credible way, e.g. a couple of closes below, would be a warning of a challenge of the multi-year lows in the low $4.90’s.

     The market is not displaying any buying confidence, although the importers are recognizing that we must be at or near seasonal lows. Producers are unwilling to sell at current prices unless they are forced in order to pay bills or sustain cash flow. Eventually the market will begin to bid up, but that will take time.

     The current trend is weak. After the report, if corn and/or beans rally, or China announces some buying of U.S. ag products, we are set up for a bump upward in wheat, but it will still make sense to continue to make incremental sales on a pre-determined schedule, POSSIBLY with a re-buy plan on the books for later execution IF conditions change enough to justify speculative positions. Call your merchant to discuss this kind of trade. It is definitely not for everyone.

     Stay tuned. More commentary after the report.

Market Bullets® Monday, August 11, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The wheat complex on very early trade Monday morning was up 1 1/2 to 5 cents in Chicago, chugging into the new week right on top of the 38-day mean line, the negative sloped center of a channel that began in mid-June. 3-trading sessions ago, Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures printed a low that reached back a year to the last week of August 2024. It was only a low by 1-cent, but it probably set off some alarms among the “quants” in those darkened rooms lit only by computer screens. For the funds, carrying some relatively heavy short-sold positions already, it was like a payday confirmation bell, although they seem curiously hesitant to dive more deeply into the short side of the market. The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) reports showed an aggregate net short-sold position in the hands of “large speculative” traders at -78,565 contracts. That is only about 66% of the 118,100 contracts they held last May, but still historically large. Th only reason to pay attention to this statistic is to be aware that there are currently large traders who must have lower wheat prices to capture profits. If any factor emerges that has the power to change market perspective to a positive, they will abandon their positions, buying them back quickly, sometimes like a frightened herd of buffalo. We think of it as fuel for lift-off. For the moment, it is stored fuel. But we do keep track of it.

     If there is a light shining, it is U.S. wheat export sales. Last week’s report gave us 737,800 metric tonnes on the books, a marketing year-to-date high, 21% up from year-ago cumulative sales and ahead of the required figure to achieve USDA’s projection for the year. Even if there are no U.S. offers, the results of Egypt’s massive tender will become known August 12-13. The pattern will be instructive.

     Tuesday, August 12th, World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) from the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) will probably be the feature of the week, unless Trump pulls a rabbit out of his hat (It strikes us that Putin is unlikely to agree to anything meaningfully positive. At least it looks like the U.S. will be providing weapons for sale to European buyers for Ukraine instead of donations).

     Pre-report Reuters-surveyed estimates:

U.S. All-Wheat Production: 1.92 billion bushels (about 0.47% of USDA’s most recent previous figure).

U.S. Winter Wheat Production: 1.346 billion bushels (about 2.5% smaller than USDA July).

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks: 882 million bushels (down about 0.9% from July).

     The numbers themselves are usually not market-movers, but the error of the pre-report guesses can cause sudden moves if great enough. After the report, the trade will act on trades that had been held back before the report, sometimes causing a “brakes off” effect in either direction.

     The chart price patterns cannot be characterized as positive. It suggests a well-supplied market, but the lows have been tested and once again held. The margin of strength is razor-thin, but the support line remains intact.

     For marketers, there is no reason to hold back planned incremental sales, but it does seem reasonable to prepare a re-buy program to be initiated only if the trade environment changes temperature. Use your merchant. Judge your risk tolerance (it is a speculative thing to do, but quite a bit more efficient than sitting with large, price-exposed cash wheat positions). The Box-o-Rox is in “Execute planned sales” mode.

Stay tuned. Stay cool!  

Market Bullets® Friday, August 8, 2025: AM

     We saw some solid gains today, with the September wheat contract on the CBOT closing at $5.18 and 1/4, up a cool 9 and 3/4 cents. It's not a home run, but it's a darn good bunt. This little bounce came from a mix of good news and folks just getting tired of the same old story…and maybe a little pre-pre-weekend short-covering.
     The big news was the latest USDA export sales report. It was a pleasant surprise! U.S. wheat export sales jumped by 25% last week, with some serious buying interest from places like Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Mexico. This is a crucial piece of the puzzle because a market can't stand tall without demand. When you've got a lot of grain sitting around and no one's buying, prices get about as low as a snake's belly in a wagon rut. This new demand, spurred by what some are calling "low prices sparking demand," is a good sign that our wheat's finally looking like a bargain.

However, it ain't all sunshine and rainbows. We've still got a couple of thunderclouds on the horizon. The ongoing wheat harvest in the U.S. is a big one, and the sheer volume of new grain hitting the market could put a lid on any big rallies.  Plus, there are whispers about some dry weather in certain growing areas, and concerns about warm nighttime temperatures, which could affect the next corn crop. While that's not a direct hit to wheat, these markets are all connected like a family reunion. What happens to one can affect them all.

     From a technical standpoint, today's move was a welcome sight. Wheat has been stuck in a sideways trading channel for a while now, bouncing between support around the $4.99 mark and resistance at $5.92. Thursday's pop higher gives a nice little signal that the bears might be taking a breather. The front-month contract in Chicago had recently hit its lowest level since 2024, and a move like this says technical buying is still a thing. When the traders who bet on prices going down decide to get out of the market, the tone changes. Decisions made by the aggregate trade are honest, as their money is on the table.     

     We are already setting up for the next World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE), coming out Tuesday, August 12 at 9:00 AM/11:00 Central. That's the one that'll really tell us if Thursday's move was a one-day wonder or the start of something more substantial.

The trendline tested the low side of the channel once this week, an essential part of making that boundary real. One day up does not make an uptrend, but every uptrend has to start somewhere. The Chicago lead contract is about to shift from September futures to December, which will take into account the carrying charge between the two contracts. Dec is trading at a full, 21-cent premium to the expiring Sep. That’s about 7 cents a month paid to the one with wheat in the bin who sells for December delivery. The message from the market is, “I don’t want your wheat today. I will pay you to hold it for a December delivery.” As long as the spreads continue to show full carries, it is hard for wheat buyers to get excited. Its just too easy to find wheat available for sale right now.

It is not all doom and gloom, just dark and windy. Stay tuned

MarketBullets® Thursday, July 7, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Gold is getting an attitude, within 2% (about $65 per Troy ounce) of its all-time highs from last April. Apparently based on increased heat in Ukraine and economic system fears as the Tariff Parade continues.

     With all the talk about Russian wheat crop condition problems, we have seen a steady decline in crop estimates, as a combination of issues over a wide area have each taken a little bite out of their wheat crop. Now there is the prospect of excessive moisture eroding the quality of a regional area’s production, another background piece of data that could grease the wheels of a global price increase. Still not a “confluence” of factors, but maybe we can call it an “accumulation.”

     Thursday’s very early trade had Chicago wheat up 5-6 cents, KC up about 7 and Minneapolis up 2½ to 3 cents. Paris indications are for plus 8-9 cents equivalent per bushel. This market may have exhausted its best short-term reasons to sell, even with the powerful downward momentum in place. Could be the beginning of profit-taking heading deeper into the last half of the week after what amounts to a gift to the short-sellers so far. Its still just a lil twitch…no reason to get excited…nothing to see here, folks…move on…  

     The anticipated results of the massive Egyptian open tender with results due next week are in the coffee talk. They are old customers of U.S. wheat exports, and their annual imports of wheat are far more than the next importing competitor, at some 12-13 million metric tonnes per year, mostly bread wheat. They have been absent for some years from U.S. wheat merchants customer lists. Now they are openly speaking about diversifying wheat import origins, which may even include some U.S. and/or Australian sources. Even a token purchase of a vessel or two is possible in a world where making a signaling action out of a business transaction has become ordinary.

     A U.S.-friendly result could trigger a shift in tone for the global markets, maybe setting a key seasonal low. This is probably not a desirable result for the Egyptian import management team, but there may be enough political pressures to push that issue aside for a moment…hopeful talk, which if dashed, may also have the opposite effect, opening a trap door to lower prices. We have to watch this episode!

     What if China steps in a buys some wheat in the same time frame…! Then add a WASDE on the 12th for some more potential spice…OR all of this is just smoke, and the market is about to get really frustrated! This is no time to be complacent about the price of wheat.

Stay tuned. At least there is something to look at.

MarketBullets® Wednesday, July 6, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     A little head fake in the S&P futures. It has threatened a break, but reconsidered…a very short-term look.

     The Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the Chicago September wheat contract is being confirmed, with a “nominal” downside target at $4.94, trading at $5.07 in the very early hours of Wednesday morning, August 6. This is a pattern with a very long history and a “reliability factor” of about 60% -70% according to some well-known authors (See Bulkowski “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”, 3rd Edition, 2021, pp 618-635, Wiley).

     From Britney Melton at NPR on August 6th: “Trump is threatening secondary sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy exports, which would penalize countries like China that purchase their oil and gas, NPR’s Charles Maynes tells Up First. Trump’s policies and rhetoric toward Russia shifted when a ceasefire with Ukraine did not happen after multiple meetings between the U.S. and Moscow. Putin has expressed that his army has momentum on the battlefield and shown no indication that he plans to back down. With Witkoff's latest meeting, Maynes says both sides may be looking for a compromise — not the full immediate peace Trump demands, but a solution that would keep him from fulfilling his threats on Friday.”

     For wheat traders, every step toward the end of war in Ukraine is a step toward larger wheat production in that region in the future, with or without a Putin victory.

     In the deep background, Global wheat ending stocks are forecast down to a 10-year low of 262.8 MMT, reflecting a tighter supply situation. This is only one plank, but against this statistic, big things could occur in the next year or two. A continental-sized weather event would move the end-users toward a buy against the fear of shortage. The odds are against it today… 

     Buyers love historical contract lows, and it is starting to show up in global terms. It will be interesting to see what Egypt comes up with when their big, 3.8 million metric tonne tender results are released next Tuesday or Wednesday.

     A steep series of repeated price lows like the one in Chicago wheat over the last 11 trading sessions are not often followed immediately by big price rallies. It takes time for any market to recover from such determined selling momentum. The period immediately following this line of lows will likely be volatile and difficult to trade, but buying because it’s cheap is not a good trading plan. For marketers it is merely confirmation that all those incremental sales over the last 7-8 months were prudent. Eventually there will be some kind of reaction back upward toward the long-term mean line.

     It's trackable and good luck goes to the prepared. Let’s track it and prepare.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, August 5, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Chicago wheat has declined about 36 cents per bushel since its June 20th channel peak. Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) has dropped 65 cents in that time, while Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) has cut 80 cents from its lead contract (in spite of a declining crop condition). This grim set of stats is the definition of the trend within a very long sideways channel that has held up its low end very consistently for a year. It is grim because it does not show any serious signs of relenting any time soon, but it is also a sign of strength, with a hard bottom line. The true value of that line is as a backstop.

     The channel will flip from being supportive to being a ceiling if the long-suffering speculative buyers abandon the line. For that it must fail in a significant way, e.g. at least a couple of closes below it with consensus trade talk. That would tell us that there is at least one more chapter in the long-term story of the Post-Ukraine Invasion by Russia, which is the main event that sponsored the massive price rise of 2022, and the ski-slope decline that followed it.

     It also tells us that the marketing of wheat crops is becoming a survival skill.

     It is past time to tune up those skills, including a methodical setup of decision-making that will prevent the potentially large losses that come from watching wheat prices fade as we wait too long for them to “come back”.

     On the other side of the ledger, there are some technical perspectives that show plausible stories of upward potential, even without a large fundamentally-based rationale. The duration and intensity of the downward thrust of this wheat market for the year-to-date has been consistent. Historically it is rare that any move, upward or down does not have a proportional and opposite reaction that corrects excesses and re-defines the market’s mandate. The permanent goal is to efficiently allocate wheat supplies to motivated buyers by motivated sellers. When this gets out of balance there is always a “correction” due.

     As long as the lower boundary of that long sideways channel remains, there is reason to be patient, but if it breaks, the time for hesitation is over.

     We like to contemplate charts, to clear away the noise and allow the charts to speak to us. It remains to us to take heed and take action.

     The enemies are the hazards of cognitive biases:

“Confirmation bias” (seeing only information that confirms pre-held positions).

“Backfire Effect” in which contradictory information against deeply held beliefs or hopes causes a “doubling down” in which not only is the information ignored but the pre-held position is increased.

“Sunk-Cost Fallacy” in which the belief that because significant time and money has already been invested in a losing position, there is a sense that abandoning that position would “lock in” previous losses, when in fact those losses already exist. This causes a bias toward additional investment based not on the analyzed future potential but on the past sunk cost.

     We all tend to feel the pain of loss more than the satisfaction of gains.

     Governments often continue funding expensive projects that are not living up to expectations, justifying the additional expense because of the amount of capital already allocated.

     When pondering the next move, we break it down into actionable bites, incremental sales, re-buy strategies, and price coverage strategies. It is amazing how once a problem has been properly addressed with a plan, how real solutions emerge so quickly.

     We know you know all of this, but it can be clarifying to review these issues.

Egypt has issued the largest international tender ever, with interest in purchasing 139.6 million bushels of wheat from optional origins for delivery October 2025 and April 2026. They have expressed interest in “diversifying” origins. In the current political environment this could be a way of expressing their philosophical positions as well. Results are due August 12-13.

     Winter wheat is 86% harvested as of August 3. Spring wheat is at 5% done versus 9% on average by now.

       The official Export Inspections report as of July 31 showed a total of 599,595 metric tonnes (22.03 million bushels) of wheat shipped, better than double the previous week and 27.2% above the same week last year, with a cumulative total 8.75% ahead.

     The August World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates are due August 12, next Tuesday morning at 9:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7), 11:00 AM Central.

     Stay tuned, we are in a low-testing market right now.

Market Bullets® Monday, August 4, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     On Friday, Diesel dropped, gold popped, The Dollar eased off of its recent gains, but is still holding above three-week-old lows.

     Dominant factors: Harvest approaching the last couple of weeks in the northern hemisphere, sanctions on Russian oil purchasers and shippers (China, India, Turkey, the EU (!) and Brazil (plus various individual dry bulk ocean shipping companies).

The E.U takes in a lot of Russian LNG, and some members have continued to buy Russian oil through trans-shipments through 3rd parties.

     Interestingly, Saudi Arabia and other Middle East oil producers are said to have been buying Russian oil for consumption at home while selling their own , superior grade crude at premium prices.

     Wheat remains in a weak pattern, approaching important old lows that, if penetrated, would cause some position adjustments among long-standing fund longs. The big spec funds have resumed selling in the last couple of weeks, with Chicago wheat counting fund’s net short-sold at -69,685 contracts versus mid-May at -118,000 net short.                          The current fund position is still large by historical standards, but there is enough room in the portfolios for considerable additional selling if they should see reason for such.

     Monday’s very early hour trading in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) is down 2½ cents, not a big negative, but leaning into the nearby lows. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat futures were a little lower, about 5 cents off, while Minneapolis is trading down 2 cents in the nearby contracts and down 4 cents deferred, softening the carrying charge. Paris was indicating €.25 on either side of unchanged.

     The trend is negative for now. Our Box-o-Rox indicator is on the “Execute Scheduled Incremental Sales” status  - see the chart.

This week is a potential tipping point. Stay in touch.     

Market Bullets® Friday, August 1, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Thursday was one of those days where the wheat trade begins with a hard negative look and then claws back up to close near unchanged, evoking a sigh and shake of the head. This has been the portrait for many sessions in the last 7 months, never venturing far from the lows, but showing a certain perseverance. It is easy to become complacent about such a well-defined baseline under the market, but that is an illusion. Certainly the price of wheat can go lower than those multi-year lows that were printed back in May and before that in August a year ago. The first challenge is the $5.05 set by the July contract as it took over from the expiring May delivery. That is less than 15 cents below our current trade. There is no signal to buy. The market is loaded with wheat for sale, and the Chicago wheat technical chart-based pattern readers are looking at a potential for the mid $4.90’s based on a “Head-and-Shoulders” pattern. That is the low that was printed a year ago. We are in capitulation territory with this kind of talk, where producers (and long-suffering speculators that have been holding on grimly for months) stop trying to imagine better prices and sell. This is the point where big, long-term lows can emerge.

     This is where selling incrementally through the year pays off. Making any sale of wheat into such lows can be a meat-grinder of a decision, but it’s remarkable how $5.05 looks crappy now, but looking back at it from $4.90 gives it a kind of nostalgic glow. Meanwhile there is still a chance of recovery. A 12-tranche wheat marketing plan sells 1/12th part of the anticipated crop each month starting at the beginning of the calendar year has us 67% sold as of August 1, with an average sale that is significantly better than it would be with no sales to speak of yet. That is the objective; to sell above the average all year by holding on in any upward trend and being aggressive in any downward move. Add a thoughtful “re-buy” strategy that gets executed when the trend goes signal-positive, and you have a potential to come out ahead by the end of the year.

     The dream of the speculator is to capture the lows early. That dream has been awfully expensive for some of us over the years. That’s because it is actually trading against the established trend if it’s done on a hunch that the downtrend is over. This scaly, nasty, angry beast of a downtrend will be hard to kill, and a mere twitch of its tail upside your head is enough to make your ears ring and your eyes water. Let’s wait to be buyers when the wicked beast is confirmed dead. We will see it, so you will see it.

   Paris 11% milling wheat at 5:AM Pacific Time (UTC-7)  is indicating steady to up 50 euro-cents per metric tonne (couple of cents per bushel). Chicago and KC contracts are both down 3-5 cents, while Minneapolis seems to be in between. Nobody but the end-user is happy in this environment. The market does have the buyer’s attention.

     Stay tuned to this channel. The stuff is trackable. We will track it.  

Market Bullets® Thursday, July 31, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The coffee-talk is saying that there is a renewed interest in U.S. origin wheat, even with the U.S. Dollar bouncing off of its lows (Now up 2.3% month-to-date, following an 11% drop since February. Bangladesh has purchased 220,000 metric tonnes of wheat deliverable this year, paying $35 more than their usual rate paid to Russia. There is no doubt that U.S. wheat is competitive, but dry bulk ocean freight is getting more expensive.

     The next few weeks will bring more negative attention to buyers of Russian oil, but the sanctions are not likely to change wheat sales, as that is tampering with food prices in a hungry world.

     SovEcon (private Russian-based grain market analyst) is projecting increased Russian wheat with a hefty bounce in its estimate from 38.3 million metric tonnes to 43.3 million tonnes. Russian wheat competes with U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW), but USDA has HRW exports will expand this year.

     The Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat charts are the most watched and most talked-about, affecting the setting of wheat price expectations for nearly the entire world. The Chicago wheat is showing a “Head and Shoulders” pattern that has been developing since May. Such patterns are not always confirmed, but the H&S pattern is one of the most reliable in the book (see “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns” Third Edition, by Bulkowski, 2021). Take a look at the chart <here>. It is spooky, but serves at least as a warning.

     The trend in wheat is still lower, even with some anticipation of seasonal lows. The trade is skeptical about price increases now. The market needs something more than is on the wires today, but there is a whiff of optimism…

     Copper saw a negative reversal, apparently stimulated by a tariff announcement. Lots of volatility, not much fundamental change. The general outlook for the copper market is friendly, due mostly to lots of demand for EV’s, data centers and other energy infrastructure expansion.

     Nat Gas is weakening, mostly on recently announced plentiful inventories. Natural Gas is about 60% to 70% of the cost of making anhydrous ammonia.

     Stay tuned, there is more coming…always!

Market Bullets® Wednesday, July 30, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Volume of trade in Chicago, the most liquid of the major exchange traded wheat contracts, has been in the lower 1/3 of the year-to-date range, suggesting that the market is without conviction. Higher volume is usually a sign of urgency or at least enthusiasm. This market seems exhausted, having worked through the solid rock of a 7-month sideways foundation and now facing a decent crop coming into the system from nearly all the major wheat-producing regions of the northern hemisphere, with more to come. There is no problem for the buyers in this environment, they feel little risk when attempting to bully the offers lower by passing on any given tender. There is always another week. Complacency in buyers can be seen as a harbinger of a true bottom, but a slow one in this case.

     If we can force the chart patterns to speak, with what appears to be a 3-top that has been forming since May, 2025. The conundrum for this pattern is that it is a top indicator that is appearing very near long-term lows. If the thing is realized, it calculates a price target near a nominal $4.94, around 38 cents below current trade. Ouch! These things don’t always reach full flower, but they should not be ignored. There will be a more detailed examination of the setup in the next couple of days on this station. Meanwhile it is not a “friendly”.

     In a market that has such a deficit of positive influences to study, this may trigger dismay. Fear not! There are marketing strategies that can blunt the anxiety and the risk. More tomorrow.

     The U.S. Dollar Index has been crawling upward from recent lows. Month-to-date the Index is up 2.26% (this in the face of an 11% March-June decline). Part of the reason for a hint of bullishness has come from that decline.

     The major part of winter wheat harvest in the U.S. is completed, with about 20% to go (including most of the PNW). The spring wheat and Canadian crop will come next. The market sees no serious threats of crop-shrink.

     In the wee hours of Wedesday, Paris 11% milling wheat is flat inside of a narrow range. Minneapolis HRS is up 1-2 cents in the nearby contracts, while later delivery periods lag by 1-2 cents (the carry may be tightening, a sign of a market that is bidding firm for nearby wheat, a price positive)

     Even with the dull and boring action of recent weeks, this is not a good time to ignore the market. Stay tuned for further developments!

Market Bullets® Tuesday, July 29, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Clamping down on Putin means hitting his oil-buying friends (China, India). The deadline is now early August. The economic wear on Putin has to be getting heavy. He gives no sign that any of this means anything to him. Based on Putin’s past patterns, it is going to be interesting to see how this pressure plays out. There is a strong intuition that he is unlikely to bend his objective of total capture of Ukraine. Somehow I can’t envision Vladimir calling Don and saying, “Hey Don, I think you may be right. I’ll just call all of the families in Russia that have lost people and tell ‘em, “Hey I’m going to quit trying to take Ukraine…sorry about your losses!”  It’s going to be educational! For wheat it’s just more of the same; high global anxiety and cheap Russian wheat.

    Winter wheat harvest in the U.S. is 80% in the bin as of July 27th versus 81% on average by now, according to USDA’s Weekly Crop Progress Report. The northern hemisphere makes about 90% of the worlds wheat versus 10% from the south. The harvest has been relatively uneventful and found that there was a crop out there. Test cutting in U.S. spring wheat is active, with the 6-state completed figure at barely 1%. Washington is 11% done and South Dakota shows 10%, but other big spring wheat states are still waiting for the sucker heads and north-facing coves to dry out. The Red River Valley is looking for a big spring wheat yield average.

     Although the last week’s U.S. wheat exports were reported slightly below trade expectations, cumulative totals in export inspections (loadings) for the 2025/26 marketing year that began on June 1 are still slightly above last year’s pace so far, at 121.6 million bushels.

     Tuesday early trade shows Chicago wheat trading weak, down 7 cents at 4:50 AM, KC Hard Red Winter following Chicago. Minneapolis was only down about 1-2 cents and Paris 11% Milling Wheat was indicating down the equivalent of 4 cents. Its harvest behavior.

     Argentine President Javier Milei announced export tax cuts on meat, grains, and oilseeds (although passing over wheat, which will apparenly remain at 9.5% until next March of 2026). Argentina had been absent from their - decades ago – leadership position in grain exports due to previous administration’s socialist policies, but Milei is making changes. Even with this encouraging news, Argentine wheat planting is expected to decline due to low global prices. In the longer run, it’s healthy for the market.

The wheat complex trend is weak. This is a good time to review the marketing plan and get serious about deliberate wheat marketing decisions and not just checkbook-style sales. Just sayin’…

Stay tuned, something will happen.

Market Bullets® Monday, July 28, 2025: Pre-Dawn

All of the four major wheat exchange leading contracts are below their respective Box-o-Rox “Execute Planned Incremental Sales” indicator lines. This is not a speculative signal, but the message is that there is no uptrend line in progress. The price has been stumbling back and forth across this line like a tired lineman running a rope drill at the end of practice, but the coach keeps saying, “You’re not tired, you just think you’re tired!”

Using Chicago as a bellwether, the support zone is about 10-30 cents below this morning’s early trade. The bottom of that zone at $5.05 has held for at least 8 moons.

There is a complacent tone and the coffee-talk is more about Trump’s Deals or the Epstein Files than any market mandating data.

The chart trend is about a flat as it gets, so holding onto price-exposed wheat in storage is a slow bleed. A price rally from this level remains a reasonable expectation but there is downside risk and no time limit on the dull trade. If you must sell here there is no mandate to wait. Buy it back later with paper if you can find reason to.

*The best visual perspective on trend is from the monthly wheat chart. Take a look if you dare!

Copper is holding near it’s all-time highs.

Diesel is trading slowly in a flabby pattern, at the low side of its recent upward channel.

The U.S. Dollar Index is marginally positive, up 1.68% month-to-date, following a long string of negative months.

The Russian Ruble is slightly weakening versus its benchmark currency, as Vladimir Putin appears to be all-in on his invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions are raising the economic pressure on him, but it is a slow process.

Natural Gas (60%-70% of the cost of making anhydrous ammonia fertilizer) is working on making new 3-month lows.

  Wheat remains trackable. Let’s track it!

Market Bullets® Friday, July 25, 2025: Pre-Dawn

If there is a headline grabber this week, it was the sweet song of good export sales of wheat. Wednesday’s Export Sales came out and blew past expectations! When was the last time you remember a positive note from the exporters. We're talking a marketing year high of 712,179 metric tonnes in sales for the week ending July 17th, a much-needed shot in the arm that made marketer’s ears go up. (so there is another day where the range lows remain intact). "Oh, so that's where the demand was hiding!" 

The sales report was a breath of fresh air for U.S. wheat, although the Chicago wheat futures front month (September delivery) gave only a parsimonious plus-1½. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) behaved a bit better, with plus-4-cent session. U.S. wheat may be  finding its place in the global market, even with fierce competition. USDA even raised its U.S. wheat export forecast in the July WASDE for 2025/26 to 850 million bushels, the highest since 2020/21 (The sour note on report day was due to an increase in production estimates based on improving expected yield.

The short-term trend remains sideways to slightly choppy. The market has been too complacent to decisively break out of it’s iron-sided, 7-month trading range. We're looking for sustained closes above previous high points that function in the market hive mind as prices that discovered enough willing sellers to turn the move back. If those sellers are still there, it may take a couple more attempts to overcome them with either hungry or frightened buyers. For Chicago SRW, keep an eye on the $5.30-$5.40/bushel area as a crucial support (discovered strong buying) zone. On the upside, the $5.60-$5.70/bushel range is a significant hurdle. A confirmed trade volume above $5.70 would be a friendly signal that could finally motivate the funds into significant short-covering (Buying back previously sold contracts). The “Box-o-Rox” moving averages are about as flat as such an indicator can get, as the daily price wiggles jump back and forth as it it were a jump-rope, a frustrating pattern for traders, but a sign of a reliable measuring range from which to launch the next move (up or down) for marketers.

Prices consistently above the BoR or other psychologically charged lines, like 50-day or 200-day averages causes buyers to gain confidence. Such things are “the stuff dreams are made of.”

 The bulls may be given a chance to prove themselves soon, as harvest pressure begins to wind down for winter wheat.  Meanwhile, The Wheat Quality Council's 2025 Spring Wheat and Durum Tour, with human beings out in the fields manually assessing spring wheat and durum crops in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, plus Montana and South Dakota, has concluded with an average yield estimate of 48.3 bushels per acre, lower than last year’s estimate of 53.8 bushels/acre. The market has noted and moved on, but this stat will linger in the mind as a price-positive idea.

The wheat trading was pretty dull in the small hours of Friday’s session. Stay tuned. The change is gonna come.  

Market Bullets® Thursday, July 24, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Low prices, according to all the best econ textbooks, bring smaller supply into the market, which in turn eventually may cause price increases. There has been lots of coffee-talk, but little substance to hints of Russian crop-shrink, although there are dynamics at work on our largest competitor that help paint the market background for wheat going forward.  

     Looking at future Russian wheat export effects on global wheat pricing:

     The profitability of wheat production in Russia has approached zero, or even become negative for some farms. In 2024, the average profitability in the grain sector in Russia plunged to 4.9%, down from 27.8% in 2020.

     To no-one’s surprise, wheat cultivation in Russia has become less attractive due to rising production costs and low prices (sound familiar?). Input costs in Russia, including fertilizers and quality seeds, have increased. For Russian wheat growers, high export duties, quotas and transportation costs for regions not directly connected to seaports further erode profit margins.

     Adverse weather conditions, including droughts and frosts over large areas of Russia, in the current year have negatively impacted wheat harvests, leading to losses and decreased yields, although the net impact on their available wheat for sale has been muted so far. Over time, wheat yields in Russia have been found to be more vulnerable to temperature increases versus the global average.

     With eroding profitability, some Russian farmers are choosing to reduce wheat cultivation and switch to more profitable crops like peas, lentils, or sunflowers. The planted area for wheat decreased by 1.2 million hectares in 2024, while the popularity of chickpeas and lentils surged.

     A general decline in the technological level of the Russian grain industry also is reducing production and profitability. With economic sanctions, diversion of government assets toward wartime priorities, economic uncertainty and high borrowing costs, Russian farmers are holding back on investments in updated equipment, relying on older technology and practices, lowering productivity and increasing vulnerability to weather or other production challenges.

     The Russian Grain Union has indicated problems with the availability of high-quality seed. Recent import restrictions on seeds from “certain countries” are adding to this effect.

     Russian producers are said to be cutting back on the use of fertilizers and other key plant inputs, making crops less resilient to adverse weather conditions.

     Conclusion: Russian wheat production may not allow them to aggressively dominate the markets every year. The amount of land in the world capable of wheat production has brought an end to most of the big weather-driven price rallies that used to herd the market season by season, even a decade ago. The sheer size of the Russian wheat production area makes them formidable producers even in a bad year. Diversification of variety, area and technology have set up a market less prone to weather-based supply issues, so the market cycle is proportionally more affected by economic or political factors now than by the weather. Given all the drag on Russian producers, wheat planted area may not advance as quickly as it seemed likely to just a couple of years ago.

     Low wheat prices are a self-correcting problem, stimulating more rapid consumption and less availability, ultimately less production. This is a game of comparative advantage, so we have to apply and reinforce our strengths; superior infrastructure for movement and storage of crops, better availability of high-quality seed and supporting nutrients/adjuvants, more efficient equipment and more, including our ability to adjust marketing plans in adverse markets.

     Stay tuned. The price wheel is turning, hopefully faster than a rotisserie.

Market Bullets® Wednesday, July 23, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Jordan passed again on all offers in their on their international tender for 120k tonnes of milling wheat. Six wheat export companies had submitted offers.

     Tunisia will release results Wednesday for their tender for 100k tonnes of optional-origin soft milling wheat.

     Russia’s Ag Minister is projecting wheat production at 88-90 MMT, down from their previous 90 MMT estimate, with exports at 43-44 MMT, down from 45 MMT.

The European Union’s Monitoring Agriculture with Remote Sensing  (MARS) system puts soft wheat yields at 6.09 tonnes per hectare (90.55 bushels per acre), up from 6.08 tonnes (a micro, 0.16% increase from the previous estimate) still up 9% from last year, well above the 5-year average.

     We are beginning to see “wheat buy” ideas among the speculative trade houses. Mostly just talk, but talk that had been missing for many months. Objectives are various, but the $5.69-$5.75 zone as a target and the top of the 7-month range seems intuitive. That amounts to a target rise of about 20-25 cents. The idea seems very conservative, but we have to start somewhere!

     Tariff negotiations seem to be yielding some U.S. ag purchase agreements, including the most recent one with Bangladesh for an annual 700,000 metric tonnes of U.S. wheat. If realized, this amounts to a U.S. re-capture of a bit of market share from Black Sea origins. Small, but begins to add up.

     Early results from this year’s Spring Wheat Crop Tour will be closely watched with the first reports mostly hitting the wires on Wednesday. Late Tuesday initial reports indicate an average yield of 49.8 bushels per acre, lower than last year's estimate of 52.3. Heavier wheat production areas of North Dakota will be examined Wednesday. Most anecdotes surrounding spring wheat crop health focus on adequate moisture in key HRS areas in both the U.S. and Canada. 

     The Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat monthly charts give some perspective on the nature of the long sideways price channel that has contained prices. The most positive aspect of this otherwise dull and difficult pattern is that the bottom has been very reliable, providing a back-stop for trading strategies. This well defined support level is valuable. A break down below the range low-end boundary would be a Big Deal.

     Steady on the beam. Changes are in the wind.     

Market Bullets® Tuesday, July 22, 2025: AM

     It was a choppy Monday session, after Friday's surprising rally. As of very early Tuesday morning the market was near unchanged. The market is still searching for its footing after failing to clear Friday's highs. It's almost as if the market took a big gulp of air on Friday, and now it's exhaling cautiously.

     If you want to see reality in a bigger picture, take a look at the monthly chart for Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. We are seeing a lack of conviction for a sustained upward trend. The bulls need to show they can hold onto gains and break above recent resistance levels to truly ignite a rally. Otherwise, we could be looking at a range-bound market for  some time to come as harvest presses forward into the last 25% for the season.

     The International Grains Council (IGC) is holding its 2025/26 world wheat crop outlook at 808 million metric tons (MMT), a slight increase from the prior season. However, they stil show slightly below projected consumption of 814 million metric tonnes.The implied tightening of global stocks has helped sustain the hope of many producers and theoretically should be supportive of PRICES.  

     But consider those Black Sea Blues (and Reds): Russia remains the big gorilla in the export room, with expectations of 84-85 million tonnes of production and ample export availability. Sanctions have forced them to price aggressively and a firm Ruble has continued to add pressure. The Russians will sell no matter what price regime they must face, and global buyers shrug their shoulders and grin, knowing that as long as the sanctions are in place, wheat will be cheap. The general effect on the price of wheat is negative.

     Meanwhile, Ukraine's crop is projected lower due to subpar yields in southern regions, leading to some premiums for prompt shipments. They also will sell no matter what the price. Holding back exportable wheat does not serve them as well as some cash flow.

     The question we might not want the answer to before breakfast... Where Do We Go From Here?" From a technical standpoint, the market is currently in a "wait and see" pattern. The rally on Friday was a nice pop, but subsequent sloppy behavior suggests it was more of a short-covering bounce than any fundamental shift in trend. Watch the recent lows closely for support. If we break below them, we could see further downside. On the upside, Friday's highs are the immediate resistance to overcome. A clear break and sustained trade above those levels would signal a potential shift in momentum...but it remains, “Wait and See”.

     For now, the overall trend for wheat remains sideways.

EXTRA
* Spring Wheat Tour Kicks Off! The 2025 US Wheat Quality Council's Hard Spring Wheat and Durum Tour starts today, Tuesday, July 22nd. These tours always attract attention, as it is as natural to walk out into a field and some informal “had thrashing” and bite a few kernals. These guys are serious counters, though. Keep your ear-buds peeled for early yield and quality reports, as these can definitely move the needle.
* Heatwave Watch: There's a high-pressure ridge expected in the central U.S. over the next couple of weeks. While not expected to be catastrophic for most summer crops, it bears watching, particularly for areas in the central and southern Plains. Heat is the last remaining wildcard!

Stay tuned. The most positive item in the lineup is that we have not seen a break to new lows since March/May 2025.

Market Bullets® Wednesday, July 16, 2025: AM

     Throwing the usual suspects, accounting for no movement, or “What skinny branch should the market stand on for support?”

     IKAR, The Russian “Institute for Agricultural Market Studies” is having a Summer Conference in Moscow (not Idaho) on July 17-18. There are seats available… They have cut their 2025 wheat production forecast to 3.013 billion bushels and their export forecast to 1.543 billion bushels, citing drought challenges in some of its southern production regions. The market is watching the numbers as harvest rolls. It’s hard to keep pregnancy a secret for long…If there are real drought problems, they will show up in the numbers at some point. Oddly, Russian agencies are lately more likely to stress crop shortages than to hold up a “everything is alright” sign. Maybe the locals are getting restless?

     Jordan passed on their international tender for 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat for Oct-Nov, after receiving offers from five trading companies. This tender will be repeated, probably in about a week. It’s a relatively small amount, but those can add up.

     Crude Oil prices have softened after a little spike last Friday thru to Tuesday. Diesel has been trading at close to the same level as late February, up some 46 cents per gallon from mid-April lows. The big trend channel for both crude and Diesel remains negatively sloped, and the talk among OPEC+ members is for increases in production.

     It appears that since President Trump gave Russia a 50-day deadline to end the Ukraine war to avoid sanctions, President Putin has taken that as a “signal to accelerate operations. Trump’s threats to send weapons to Ukraine has a long time delay attached, but it seems to be more in harmony with NATO’s perspective. The only effect on wheat would come from more sanctions applied to anyone who appears to be willing to deal with Putin, i.e. “BRICS” member nations.

     U.S. wheat harvest is rolling faster, as conditions are good for thrashing. Winter wheat is 63% done as of July 13th. There is wheat for sale…

     This is a time (quiet markets) where checking on the market performance takes only a few seconds. It’s still worth doing every day.

     The chart base is long and flat, a suitable platform for launching a price move. Stay tuned!

Market Bullets® Tuesday, July 15, 2025: AM

     The wheat complex pressed lower, out of the narrow, sideways range between $5.41 and $5.57 of the previous 5 sessions. The July futures faded out with a whimper, with the last 5 contracts delivered on Monday. Global harvest progress lies heavy over the market tone, with the most telling statistic from USDA about increasing production in the U.S. fresh in the mind.

     U.S. winter wheat is now at 63% complete, just under the 5-year average pace. Spring wheat is headed early at 78% and conditions are easing toward some improvement. There was another little surprise in the WASDE last Friday; spring wheat yields are expected to be better than the trade was expecting. Good production news is always bad price news.

     Russia is seeing harvest delays and there are rumors of terminal loading shortages as wheat is slower in arriving at shipping points than anticipated. This is a temporary price-positive in global wheat supply chains, as Russian merchandizers are sighing and breaking their pencils (demurrage is expensive).

     Canada and Ukraine are seeing some small reductions in production forecasts.

     U.S. export inspections for wheat slowed in the last week, as the year-to-date pace of shipping is lagging last year’s pace by just a tid.

      The tariff parade is seeing a flurry of new announcements of increases with more to  be added versus EU and Mexico on August 1. The pattern of hard threats and moderate capitulation is apparently yielding some agreements. The band plays on.

     Very early Tuesday trading is slow, down about 3½ cents, leaning into a reversion to the negative-sloped, 105-session mean line drawn from the highs of last February, and right on top of the Box-o-Rox 60-session moving average. We have no substantive trend, BUT the channel has been slightly positive, with higher highs and higher lows since March 29. This is where we receive the gift of the opportunity to be patient!

     The problem of “Too Much Wheat” can only be corrected in two ways; the passage of time or lower prices. Of the two, lower prices is more decisive, like ripping off the bandaid, and besides emboldening buyers, has the added longer-term benefit of influencing some producers to switch to other crops. Our best marketing response is to be more aggressive with periodic, incremental sales over time, while readying a “re-buy” strategy to be executed on a buy signal when it emerges (an admittedly speculative move, but one that just by being prepared, allows a certain relaxation of stress).

     The global markets are realizing that changes are in the works, and maybe the resolutions of some long-standing issues, but the tunnel curves here, so everyone is walking slowly. Buyers of wheat are hand-to-mouth, but they see the harvest clearly and will not have to extend themselves for many months from now. Producers are reluctant to part with their wheat, but there are always bills to pay, and the market knows this very well.

     Stay on plan. If ya don’t have one, make one. Divide up your wheat and sell it a slice at a time. Watch the charts for range highs (or range lows). Set price limits and talk about them with your merchant. Extract that extra 25 cents when it is available, knowing that even if you miss, the fact that it is an increment allows some foregiveness. At least it’s interesting!

     Let harvest be your “Friday night under the lights.”

Stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Monday, July 14, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     The WASDE was a whiff for those looking for supportive stats, as the trade decided that larger production of wheat in the U.S. is more important than better exports. The trade was short in their pre-report estimate of of All-Wheat production at 1.903 billion bushels, as the official WASDE was 1.929 billion, an actual increase of 8 million bushels and an error of about -1.3% for the “Trade Analysts”.

     Exports of U.S. origin wheat are projected at 850 million bushels, a 25-million-bushel increase. No surprise as that is what lower prices are supposed to do.

      Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are lowered a marginal .45%, a 1.2 million tonne cut down to 261.5 million, primarily on reductions for Canada and the EU.

     The Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures contracts fell out of bed to close down 9½ cents on the day and minus 11¾ on the week. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) did no better, off by the same 9½, while Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) was the weakest at a minus 18¼ cent day and minus 34-cent week, the lowest weekly close for that contract since late May.       

PNW White winter wheat ending stocks for this year’s harvest is seen as 93 million bushels versus 80 million last year.

Last week, wheat markets rattled around like a rock in a narrow box. The trade worked hard to find anything to hang on to for positives. But like a perfectly baked loaf gone stale, the market quickly lost flavor after Friday's numbers hit the wire.

The USDA left the bulls wanting. If there was a hint of light, it came from the slight dip in global ending stocks and the 25-million-bushel uptick in U.S. exports. The market sighed and slid back into watching weather reports with diminishing effect on wheat as we flip over to the back half of the northern hemisphere harvest. As there were no longer any further statistical threats, the buyers retreated.

     Speaking of Boxes of Rocks, our Box-o-Rox indicator(s) have gone to “Execute scheduled incremental sales” status. Only Chicago held on by fractions to “Hold”. The simplicity of this indicator is its virtue, with the main idea of being slow to sell when in a defined uptrend and to accelerate sales in a downward trend, all the while dividing the total sales for the year into incremental amounts, e.g. 12 separate sales. This will help to beat the annual average while riding any uptrend that shows itself. Have a look at the BoR charts.

There is still support for this market, its just not strong enough yet to lift prices above the range.

Stay tuned, there are opportunities ahead.

Market Bullets® Friday, July 11, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     USDA’s July World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) is due out at 9:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7)/11:00 AM Central (UTC-5). On release day the market rarely makes a serious move ahead of the report. The tradition is to gauge the results against the trade consensus gathered by survey, and then react according to the accuracy of the guesses. There is sometimes a violent reaction if the trade is surprised, but even if they get it right the trade has a tendency to pause and then resume trade on report day, sometimes exhibiting a “brakes off” surge, even in the event of a dull report.

     Bloomberg’s survey of the trade suggests that the USDA’s world wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 should be 262.5 million metric tonnes, a marginal increase from the previous report. This “jiggling” of the forecast figures has little meaning, but when there is little else for the trade to apply to fundamental market analysis, it becomes magnified in effect.

     Of late, long-term trend for wheat futures has been within a broader horizontal trend channel or rectangle formation, a period of consolidation with the price moving between established support and resistance levels. A decisive break above resistance (e.g., 572 Chicago) would be a bullish signal, while a break below support (e.g., 499 or 530) would be bearish.

     The energy level of wheat prices is low. The trade has become relaxed, even complacent, as the sideways move has become a desert road through Death Valley, with the mirages shimmering across the horizon. The thought of a serious rally has become an old-timer’s story, “I recomember back in ’22, when the price moved from $7 to $12 in just two months!” Can those days come again? Mebbe…but it could be a while. Meanwhile, we have to focus on “opportunistic” approaches as we apply every tool to enhance our marketing without adding a foolish amount of risk. Holding large amounts of uncovered wheat in storage as a bet on higher prices later has never been an efficient risk. More money has been lost that way than will ever be admitted!

     Trend-followers have to be patient with up-moves, but also be aggressive when the trend is against us. Slow-walk sales when the trend is positive (let it ride), then accelerate when the trend is negative. Beat the average.

     Stay tuned for post-report review and end of the week perspective.

Market Bullets® Thursday, July 10, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     If you need to sell some wheat to pay the bills, but you are gut-sure that the price is about to rally sooner or later, it is a practical and not terribly expensive move to buy an out-of-the money call option in the wheat market of your choice. You can do this with as little as a dime. Just remember that time costs money, so the farther out ahead in time you go, the more it will cost for a given price level. It is always a higher cost and risk for better potential. It is not reasonable to buy a call with only a couple or three weeks to expiration. That is putting too much pressure on your certainty. It may be “far” out of the money, like an October $6.15 strike, some 43 cents above the current December contract (upon which it depends), but we have all seen that this market is easily moved that far with little actual reason, except for short-covering by the money funds. Then you have about 78 days until expiration for the market to do its thing. If you are wrong in that time, you are out about what it would cost to store the stuff for that period anyway. If you are right, and the market is near expiration and above the strike price, you can recover some of the “missed opportunity”. The strategy is bone-simple, can be improved upon, and options often expire without making anything, but may allow some reduction of the anxiety of selling wheat at painfully low prices. We like to do this when there is an actual buy signal as a trigger. Call your merchant for more information about this and other price protection strategies.  

     The wheat market has been grinding lower, but not all the way back to the range lows yet. On early Thursday morning trade, the Chicago wheat contract showed a little spark of life, with a quick jump to a positive 6 cents. It’s just nice to see. If there is a reason for the run, it is a headline or other wire-related tidbit, but there doesn’t have to be any profound basis for the move. Weather model shift, Chinese negotiation position change, or other “black swan” landing on the pond…all are potentials. What matters is how much buying power shows up on the charts.

     The trend channel is neutral, about 50 cents from low-to-high edge, and has a slightly positive tone. Friday’s WASDE may provide some direction.

     Stay on track. The longer this market goes without breaking out in either direction, the more significant it will be when it finally does…and it will.

One strategy I like to use is a “courage call”—buying an out-of-the-money call option between 5 and 10 cents. Once the market reaches the strike price of that option, it serves as a trigger to make hedges or cash sales. This way, you can commit to a sale while still retaining upside potential if prices continue to rally beyond the strike price.

The  resumption  of  the  Odesa  region  deep-sea  ports  operation  and  a  smaller  grain  harvest  in  2024

The  resumption  of  the  Odesa  region  deep-sea  ports  operation  and  a  smaller  grain  harvest  in  2024

 Keep an eye on two key market movers:

·         A shift in the weather forecasts

·         A trade deal announcement with China

Either one could quickly alter the current trajectory.

Historically, rallies this late in the season are rarely long-lived.

Market Bullets® Wednesday, July 9, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     National corn condition ratings gained another point this week to 74% good/ excellent, compared to 68% last year and the 64% five-year average. The weather is about is ideal for corn, lots of rain and heat. This is where they say you can sit on the back porch at night and hear the corn growing. Just plain intuition says this corn crop could be a whopper. For wheat that is a message not to ask for sympathetic price support here.

     Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) has gained 45 cents per bushel against KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) since the first week of January. This is a somewhat rare condition and a little surprising, since the traditional hard red bread wheat spends a great majority of time priced above the soft red, and this year some major HRW states had been struggling with drought. It may be that Russian 11% (dry) protein wheat has dominated the northern red wheat market by sheer volume and discounted prices. We are watching this relationship (see the spread charts at the bottom of the site page).

     There is an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) under the ticker “WEAT” in which each “share” represents a bushel of wheat. It is based entirely on Chicago futures contracts and has some special risk characteristics. WEAT is usually liquid and is very easy to trade. The general trade perspective for WEAT at current levels is that the market is in a negative pattern, and WEAK is rated a sell. IF you decide to investigate the WEAT ETF, be sure to understand thoroughly what it is and how it works before you take any actions.  However small it may seem, there is still risk to your capital, and there is no-one responsible for your results but you.

     This wheat market has no mandate. Harvest will continue to dominate the factors driving the market for some weeks to come. Steady is the call.

     Stay tuned. Day by day conditions will change, until one day there is reason to move. The funds are still short (especially looking down the barrel of a heavy crop of corn and beans). We are watching, and the changes always show up first among the charts.

Good hunting!

World Ag Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) Friday morning, July 11th, 2025.

9:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7)/11:00 AM Central (UTC-5).

Market Bullets® Tuesday, July 8, 2025: AM

US Exports of wheat achieved a twelve year high for this early point in the crop year, up 3.7% from last year.  This is not a surprise as wheat has become cheaper in bulk in both the trade levels and through a lower dollar exchange price.  There is no difficulty finding wheat for sale.

            Russia may still have a smaller crop than currently projected.  This is strictly a background factor at this point and is not a good reason to hold wheat in storage.  Winter wheat harvest in the US is past halfway at 53%.

            Indonesia has done a deal with US trade negotiators and signed a memorandum for 1 million metric tonne purchase annually going forward.  There are still negotiations proceeding on other goods.

            The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report says large specs covered (bought back) a small net 1596 contracts in Chicago soft red winter wheat.  KC saw a similar change of 1114 fewer open contracts.  The net short-sold positions are still moderately large -63,671 Chicago and -42,348 KC.

            It’s a long road for marketers when the price is trapped in a 50 cent range.  There is temptation to speculate which just becomes an exercise in impulse that increases risk and expense.  Trading is a completely different business that has its own parameters and business requirements.  It can be done appropriately but not efficiently with wheat in the bin.

            Stay on plan.  Make the sales according to schedule.  Beating the average may sound like a dull goal, but if done well over time it is usually a massive gain…but you knew that already!  Stay tuned.  When the change comes it’s likely to be rapid

Market Bullets® Monday, July 7, 2025: AM

     We begin the new post-holiday right back to where we were last Tuesday, July 1 on the Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat charts. Overnight the wheat market faded another 12 cents in SRW and KC Hard Red Winter (HRW). Minneapolis was off about 8 cents and Paris showed the equivalent of minus 5 cents. The prudent traders that were the buyers on Thursday were just covering some short-sold positions ahead of a perilous weekend. On Monday they were apparently replacing the sold positions from last week, along with some cash sales in the country triggered by harvest bills.

     The trend pattern has not changed significantly, still close enough to worry about range-low failure or at least another test of this year’s lows around $5.05 in SRW. Each day we manage to hold above that low is another day closer to a price rally. If it is in proportion to the duration and intensity of the neutral/flat-to-slightly positive slope of the charts, we may be able to declare a seasonal low and move on to another chapter. …Sorry about the repetitive comments. We will have to submit them to the Department of Redundancy Department.

     Monday will bring USDA Harvest Progress for winter wheat, spring wheat condition and Commitment of Traders reports that were delayed last week. 

     The U.S. Dollar Index has paused in its 4-month long decline. Not a trend-change but the first session to show positive numbers for the greenback in the global currency exchange for some weeks, even as it trades near its 3-year low. This is a very indirect and minor influence on daily wheat prices at this point.

     More volatility ahead, on weather mostly. Watch those lows around $5.05 in Chicago, and in KC they’re about the same price. HRS is still needing some supportive weather to make it to August/September without more crop-shrink. Stay tuned.

Market Bullets® Wednesday, July 2, 2025: Close

     Wheat and other grains futures will close early; 10:30 AM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC-7)/11:00 AM (UTC-5) Central Daylight Time on Thursday, July 3, 2025. Markets are closed on Friday, July 4, 2025 in observance of Independence Day.

     Most of the pre-holiday weekend decisions were made and executed Wednesday (to avoid potential low-volume trade on Thursday), but there is always a chance that the short session on Thursday will yield a quick spike, since it takes proportionally less volume to move the price on a short-day. It is more likely that it will be a muted session.

     In the time since the end of March, Chicago wheat has produced an upward-sloped channel of about 45 cents from the rising low edge to the high side. The price has racked back and forth inside the range 9 times, an average of 5 days each way. Today (Thursday, July 3) has already popped up 44 cents in 4 sessions. This kind of hunting pattern is very hard on many small trading accounts, but it counts as a new upward move in the larger picture and shows that there is life in what had been a dull market. Flipping over to the Weekly chart, it doesn’t look like much, but it has triggered the “Hold new sales” light on the Box-o-Rox board. If it whips back below that BoR green line, we will catch up on any sales that had been delayed at that point.

     Winter wheat harvest is about halfway, and since the earlier rain delays, weather has been good for running combines. This week’s Crop Condition reports will be delayed until Monday due to the holiday. Any long holiday during sensitive periods in crop development can bring market changes through weather or other developments.

     The price slope is mildly positive, but the range-top is once again at hand. Owning wheat at the range top will be a genius move if there is a breakout to the upside, otherwise it is just the top end and the return to test the lower end is due. Given the recent, repeated price behavior, the odds today seem to favor another low test. Trend-followers have to wait until there is a defined positive pattern to take action.

Stay tuned, we will track it here. Have a good 4th!

 Market Bullets® Wednesday, July 2, 2025: Pre-Dawn

     Every year the market pays attention to the same factors through spring and into summer. The market is aware that northern hemisphere harvest is pending, the crop is green and has potential based on the moisture available. The price volatility increases as the weather patterns shift and the crop matures. Then a point is reached when the crop begins to shrink slightly, as the ripening begins and potential expansion is no longer a factor (some time near the equinox). Harvest begins in the southern tier of wheat states.

      By the time harvest reaches halfway, the size and quality is pretty well defined. Usually somewhere along that road, unless there is a powerful and usually very obvious factor dominating the market, a seasonal low is printed.

     This year we have had multiple reasons to expect wheat prices to decline past the by-now-well-defined lows since last November, but they did not break down as many believed they would. The funds were massively short-sold on this expectation, but they have reduced their big shorts by 30%-40% over the last couple of weeks (co-incident with the roll out of the expiring July into September or later contracts). Now we are very nearly halfway into winter wheat harvest and there are no hemispheric, wide-area crop failures (even in Russia, although their announcements may suggest problems), and we already have a candidate price for seasonal low in every major contract.

     There is still wheat vulnerable to heat, but that is a fading factor in winter wheat. Spring wheat is struggling, with crop condition 20% or more lower than last year at this point. U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS) represents only about 25% of the total wheat crop. Canadian HRS is in average condition.

     From here, if there is to be a rally beyond the top side of the recent range about 40 cents above current trading, except for spring wheat, it will depend less on changing supply and more on demand. The Tariff Parade is still marching toward more defined results, with ag sales still on the table. The U.S. Dollar Index has declined more than 10% since the end of February, making U.S. wheat more competitive in global markets.

     Add it all up and it looks like there is a chance for a gradual increase in price going forward, as we watch the spring wheat develop. We still have to wait until it is objectively visible on the charts, using some yardstick like the “Box-o-Rox” or similar tool.

     In the recent roll from the expiring July contract to the September, the continuous charts experienced an “artificial” rally of about 13 extra cents per bushel to account for the carrying charge from July to September. This put some of the contracts above the BoR line and back into “Hold up on sale” status. We feel that this is not much of an issue, as there has not been a failure of the support zone.

     The trend is still neutral to very mildly negative, but we have seen signs of life in the last couple of weeks.

     We will hold-up on new incremental sales until there is evidence that the pattern is against us (defined by a breakdown of the long-term price points that have held up below this market for so long or an objectively negative technical pattern develops.

     Stay tuned, kids. This market is not dead yet. We will track it.    

PS Copper is flirting with its all-time high, a suggestion of healthy global construction demand…or maybe due to lots of data-centers being built to house your family photos, or because the Ai said it will need them.

Market Bullets® Tuesday, July 1, 2025: Early AM

No Markets Friday heading into 4th of July weekend holiday.

     USDA’s Stocks Report gave us All-Wheat Seedings of 45,478 million acres seeded against the average pre-report trade guess of 45,438. The evident 40,000 acres will make just a tid more wheat than expected.

     Stocks of wheat in inventory were marked at 850.5 million bushels, 10 million bushels over the average trade guess and 145 million over last year at this point.

     The numbers from the report were very mildly bearish, just over the line, but the market seemed relieved it was not a larger miss.

     The weather report over the long weekend will be watched closely, but the 18-state winter wheat harvest is 37% completed versus 42% on average by now.

The PNW winter wheat harvest is still waiting for the north slopes and coves to dry out. Early hand-harvesting of a few heads shows maybe smaller heads than we have recently been used to, but some nice round berries.

      Overall remaining winter wheat condition is stable around 48% Good-to-Excellent condition versus 51% normal.

     Spring wheat condition is 53% Good-to-Excellent condition over the five major spring wheat states, a disappointment versus 72% last year.

     The roll-over from the expiring July futures contracts to September is complete. The charts reflect about 13 cents higher for September over July, a 4.3-cent per month carry as the July Chicago futures enters its physical delivery period.

     The pattern of this market has been sustained over and over again in a relatively narrow band of prices near long-term lows. Now even in harvest there seems to be healthy buying below the current price. Eventually this will chew through the “easy wheat” that gets sold at harvest to catch up on bills, opening a window for a sustained price rally. For now, the odds of a big price runup in wheat is remote. There is no problem for importers finding wheat for sale.

     If the world can stay sane for a month or two, we may see wheat move more easily into global markets, the easier the better for consumption.

The timing of the announcements of Tariff Deals for the Independence Day period is good. The objective impact on wheat prices may be noticeable.

     The U.S. Dollar Index continues to decline. Interest rates are sliding, with or without the Fed.

     The trend for wheat is still neutral, with little itty-bitty sparks of potential that may require some confirmation bias to see. The Box-o-Rox indicator is very close to going back up over the line to make a “hold” on new incremental sales. Depending on the type of chart, the market is right on top of the line. This will clarify shortly.

     Stay tuned, as the market continues to hunt for balance.